I really don’t see what makes Isaiah Hartenstein superior to Bagley aside from his price tag and the fact that he is a very efficient 17 mpg role player for a very good team. It seems like Bagley is gelling well with the team and so, why not commit to a guy liked by the rest of the team. It’s a small gamble and dare I say a good one by Weaver. Bagley is a former number 2 pick and although he plays slightly worse than a thoroughly mediocre player his priors mean something no matter how much we’d like to pretend they don’t matter when it comes to making trades. He’s 23 years old, he has the potential to become a very good player.
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I watch the clippers more than any other team besides the Pistons. I’d take bagley all day.
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He’s a terrific passer for a 5, finishes, and protects the heck out of the rim. And he’s only a year older than Bagley so there’s still plenty of runway for him to get better. NBA Twitter loves him as a buy low.
That looks pretty good, but what I said stands, that Bagley is a decent gamble. I wouldn’t be opposed to signing Hartenstein on top of Bagley and shipping off KO.
Don’t want to litigate it more, as it’s clear where I stand.
Here is Bagley and 3 guys who got 1/2 the annual cost and 1 less year: “0” would be “replacement”, ie, freely available talent at the league minimum.
-2 is replev, 0 is league average. FWIW if each hypothetical dude plays 36 minutes a game in 60 games over the course of a season, that difference is worth like 3-4 wins.
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This is just a gamble on upside right? I don’t really get the Bagley/Hartenstein comps. Hartenstein is probably a better player if you were trying to win now, a better contract, etc. but the reality is that the Pistons are hoping Bagley has a ton more upside that they can find.
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It’s the argument. They’re like 7 months apart in age, so I’m not sure.
Also, I think there is a solid chance the Pistons are signing Bagley to be starting 4 (they have Stewart and just traded for Noel)…which is a worse idea?
I guess I have 3 arguments:
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Regardless of what Bagley becomes, he has been quite bad in his career today, and has netted little improvement. I’m not sure why you sign him to “starting center” money. I doubt there was a market for him close to that.
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This seems like anchoring to his draft slot. He has been a bad player. Plenty of players (like Hartenstein, similarly aged) have improved greatly in their first three years in the league. Saying he has more upside than the player who is the same age who has improved significantly more because…scouts 4 years ago said he was better?
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Even if Bagley is a quality starting option, you’ve invested in literally 4 other centers! Why spend $13 mil a year for a 5th?
(btw, Bagley’s 3rd year is fully guaranteed)
Once again, they are invested in a team with 1 above average shooter for their position (Burks), 2 average ones (Cade, Bey) and then an utter mess beyond that.
I think Bagley is worth the risk. In 3 years, his salary is going to look very favorable. Plus, you must take into consideration the team he came from, need I say more. NBA teams have to spend a certain amount of dollars each year if I am not mistaken and Weaver is managing this free agency process year to year. The Pistons are not quite ready to win as this team is very young and will be lucky to make the playoffs next season. Next offseason will tell a lot about where this team is headed.
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It’s obviously where I stand, but I’ll just say the Pistons are well above the league salary floor, so paying Bagley isn’t really an issue in that respect. Last year, the OKC just wrote a $2 million check to every rostered player because they didn’t climb over the floor.
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Season Age Tm Lg Pos G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP 2021-22 22 DET NBA PF 18 490 17.7 .585 .175 .270 8.0 19.8 13.6 6.9 1.3 1.3 7.4 21.2 0.7 0.4 1.1 .107 0.4 -0.9 -0.6 0.2 Career NBA 166 4159 17.1 .553 .179 .292 10.2 21.7 15.8 5.6 0.9 2.3 9.5 23.0 4.0 3.3 7.3 .085 -0.2 -1.9 -2.1 -0.1
Season Age Tm Lg Pos G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% eFG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS 2021-22 22 DET NBA PF 18 8 27.2 6.2 11.1 .555 0.4 1.9 .229 5.7 9.2 .624 .575 1.8 3.0 .593 2.1 4.7 6.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.0 2.4 14.6 Career NBA 166 77 25.1 5.5 10.9 .501 0.6 1.9 .291 4.9 9.0 .546 .527 2.1 3.2 .663 2.4 5.0 7.4 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.1 13.6
I don’t get what people love about this statline
EDIT: The forum cuts off all the numbers sigh
A failed team exectutive confidently criticizing team executive type things is something.
I don’t love/hate the deal. Just always find the not so successful Hollinger always throwing nukes on other’s decisions.
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Bagley aside, I am curious as to why you think a key front-office cog that got the power-house Grizzlies to 3 straight 50 win seasons and a conference finals is a “failed executive” (even if the Grizzlies did poorly (they didn’t), I’m not sure why that would diminish his work as a statistician). Also, I think he probably knows people (given he was VP of Ops) and has an idea of what the market for any player was.
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As an enthusiastic over user of the phrase glass half full, I am envious of the glass 4% full line. Well handled!
In general I used to find hollinger was a can’t see the forest for the trees kind of writer, but he seems to have flipped the script.
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I think this is a fair take. I’m just willing to take a chance on the upside when the Pistons aren’t currently contenders. Wish it was at a lower price tag though.
I do have a little issue with this part though:
Detroit traded two second-round picks just to get his restricted free agent rights at the 2022 trade deadline, even though his team at the time pretty clearly had no intention of keeping him.
The reason you make the trade is to get that initial “trial” period to see if this is someone that fits in the locker room and to get an up close look at whether it is a player they want to invest in long term. If they like him enough, second rounders aren’t a big deal to give up to see what they have in Bagley.
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I haven’t gotten past the KD stuff from Dunc’d On today but Nate and Danny managed to stick in their discussion of the Noel/Burks deal an aside about Weaver’s weird thing for Bagley and why they really hoped he’d get over it. I’m guessing they were not thrilled on the pod today. Pelton’s grade isn’t up yet but I’d be surprised if he’s into it. Don’t think anybody else I follow is into it either. E.g.
Steph Noh on Bagley and Hartenstein:
Feldman on Bagley/Knox
Development isn’t linear and all that and Weaver seems pretty capable but most of these moves seem like strange places to put bets vs. some fairly clear alternatives.
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IMO the TS% is pretty nice? But how good a finisher does he have to be to offset the lack of rim protection? I would guess pretty nearly elite
I don’t really get the deal, but I guess the thinking is like this: it gives the young guys a veteran (well, sort of) to learn from over the next couple of years while they go through their growing pains. By 2024, the team will hopefully be ready to make some noise and his expiring contract might have value.
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Spoiler - Duncan/Leroux hate it too.
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