On the need for an elite big - no question we don’t advance nearly as far without Mitch’s great tourney two years ago. He and Burke won the Kansas game. But “elite” bigs are almost always one and done guys, and with Mitch it was surprising to get him back for a second year. We need quality bigs, and I think Doyle, Wilson and Teske will all turn into that - all have more size and a bigger recruiting profile than Morgan, for example, who while undersized was great for us last year.
On Irvin, yes at times he has been forced to take contested shots, but he has also missed a LOT of open looks too. Those are the ones we absolutely need.
On the whole “running through doors” to come to Michigan. It’s a little overstated. We have waited on plenty of guys to make decisions - Stauskas, Irvin, McGary, Chatman, etc. What I think the staff dislikes is when a recruit cancels a Michigan trip to go elsewhere (Blueitt, UCLA), has visited several times and then expands his list (Coleman), or can’t be bothered to visit campus for his offer (sounds like Ahmad). I think those are fair points. We are currently waiting patiently on Langford, Battle, and Winston.
Mpbear14, as I recall you also thought Jalen Coleman really liked Michigan, but when push came to shove he opted to open up his recruitment to many other teams. I enjoyed your posts last summer and your insights, I'm just suggesting that the interest of the All Ohio Red kids maybe wasn't as high as it had seemed - or maybe there were a lot of factors in play. I do like Ahmad's film and he seems like a nice player.
You are probably right LAW. My only rebuttal to your post would be it’s JB’s responsibility to “wow” these kids. Get them more interested. I find it hard to believe that Esa Ahmad was initially knocking down Huggins door to go to West Va.
Here’s where I have a problem with JB’s recruiting. He seems to get turned off by a kid if he isn’t trying to run through a wall to play at Michigan. This isn’t directed at anyone in particular but I constantly read on message boards when we lose out on a big time recruit and settle for a Levert, Dawkins, Robinson or MAAR that these kids want to play for Michigan. These are the kids we need. Etc etc. Well of course they would run through a wall to play for Michigan, their alternative is Kent State, Rhode Island or Miami of Ohio. Granted, some of these recruits will pan out and be productive, but we aren’t going to be a consistent winner with them. It’s just not realistic. One more point I want to make and then I’ll shut up is we had an elite big guy when we made it to the national championship game. Quite frankly, that’s all that matters in my eyes, the NCAA tournament. It cannot be stressed enough how important having one of those on the roster is.
I think you are correct that JB isn’t a “hard sell” type of recruiter. Based on all I’ve heard and read, he thinks the university has a lot to offer, and he wants recruits to choose Michigan based off of the whole package. He doesn’t “show the love” that most high-level recruits are accustomed to. Sometimes I wish he’d do that, but it just isn’t who he is. At this point, I don’t see that changing.
I don’t think you can necessarily say that we can’t be a consistent winner with our plan B and C recruits (or lowel-level recruits in general), though. Teams have done it and continue to do it. But those teams win when they have a team full of upperclassmen. UVa and Wisconsin immediately come to mind. Oklahoma and Butler fit the bill this year.
I personally would prefer a healthy mix of upperclassmen who are physically mature and know the system combined with a few two-and-done (or even one-and-done) types. It’s unrealistic for anyone to all of a sudden expect JB to reel in every blue chipper he pursues.
Just asking… you do not expect the quality of recruits showing interest in Michigan to go up after our recent success? Because I sure in the heck did.
Just asking......... you do not expect the quality of recruits showing interest in Michigan to go up after our recent success? Because I sure in the heck did.
The quality of recruits showing interest certainly has increased. Michigan’s Elite Camp was filled with five-stars in June… That never happened a few years ago.
I’m not sure Beilein will ever recruit better than (likely) six pros in three classes (10/11/12) though. That’s a pretty good haul.
Like Dylan just noted, higher level recruits are interested in us after the past 2-3 years. Four or five years ago, we weren’t on the short list of mutiple Top-25 recruits from all across the country.
My point was that I don’t think it’s realistic to expect JB to win all of these battles for his plan A guys, or even most of the battles. And that’s fine. We just have to win some.
@Alum05 Yep. The last point is really the truth. Basketball recruiting isn’t about who you miss because the classes are so small, it’s more about who you land.
Remember in 2012 … Michigan missed on Valentine, Costello before landing Stauskas, McGary and prioritized a 3 star wing with MM+ offers in GR3.
That being said… I still think they really need to land some big fish in 2016.
If and when we leave Adidas for Nike, JB will coincidently become a much better recruiter. He is unchallenged at identifying young talent, but when the vast majority of them are Nike minions and sworn servants of the Swoosh, we don't realistically show up on their radar. Sure you can cite the occasional exception, but ALOT of kids that we've targeted the last couple of years "belong" to Nike, and aren't going to buck the entrenched system. They've got WAY to many handlers reminding them of their "obligation". If we go back to Nike we are now at least back in the conversation, full well knowing that we play by the rules.
You have made mention of this before; but I always scratch my head as I have never heard it anywhere else.
You’re kidding, right? Look up Rick Pitino and shoe influence on recruiting.
The shoe influence is very real – there’s no denying that. Nike/UA/Adidas are paying for these kids’ summers, giving them free gear, sponsoring AAU teams often coached by parents, wooing them in every which way and the idea is that will pay off with a mutually beneficial relationship in a couple of years when they are in the NBA.
Now not every kid on the Nike circuit is going to a Nike school and it’s impossible to paint it with that broad of a brush… but it’s a real effect that certainly changes some recruitments.
Even Jaylen Brown has spoken openly about his relationship with Adidas
@Alum05 Yep. The last point is really the truth. Basketball recruiting isn't about who you miss because the classes are so small, it's more about who you land.
Remember in 2012 … Michigan missed on Valentine, Costello before landing Stauskas, McGary and prioritized a 3 star wing with MM+ offers in GR3.
That being said… I still think they really need to land some big fish in 2016.
Right on! 2016 is a monster year for recruiting. A complete miss and it could set the program back anywhere from 1-3 years. Which in basketball, are like dog years. We’ve come too far for that to happen.
I think Doyle will be a nice player.
Don’t forget he doesn’t turn 19 until May.
I think he’ll just take a little more time to develop but he looks like a nice player and has a 7’2" wingspan.
Mitch McGary was 20 his freshman season and turned 21 that summer after.
…So he was 2 years older than Doyle when we saw him play first. He had Morgan to help teach him. Plus Burke as his PG and Stauskas/Hardaway chucking 3’s. Plus he played AAU and Prep School prior. And was still only averaging 6ppg and 6reb through February.
It’s not so much that 2016 is a huge year by itself for recruiting. If we miss on our top guys again, we’ll find players.
For me, the bigger issue is, do we recalibrate our approach?
Since the title run two years ago, we have targeted big fish and, with the exception of Chatman (and I guess Teske was a nice get over OSU), have missed. Booker, Bates-Diop, Blackmon, Blueitt, Coleman, Brunson, Kennard, etc.
During that time, we have passed on several players who, in years past, we would have been happy to land. Jordan Barnett, Bryant McIntosh, Matt McQuaid, Kyle Ahrens, Kyle Guy, AJ Turner, Tyler Williams, Sedric Barefield, etc.
Now, I think it was the right strategy because as long as five star kids seem really interested, it would be nuts not to recruit them. On the other hand, if you can’t get those kids - and in some instances there is not a level playing field - maybe you start going after the kids you think are really underrated in that 50-150 range. We may see a return to that (seems like Izzo has headed that directjon a bit himself after his spectacular 2013 and 2014 misses) and it may be a good idea. Here’s hoping we can land Langford and Battle.
During that time, we have passed on several players who, in years past, we would have been happy to land. Jordan Barnett, Bryant McIntosh, Matt McQuaid, Kyle Ahrens, Kyle Guy, AJ Turner, Tyler Williams, Sedric Barefield, etc.
It’s always a balance and a lot of those kids there are probably reasons (Ahrens injury, Barnett/Barefield more of just cooling on their games, etc.) that Michigan passed or slow played. Some of them you’ll kick yourself over but some are ones that probably aren’t good enough.
I don’t think Beilein is shy to go after a kid he thinks he’s the right fit, even early, such as Duncan Robinson or Glenn Robinson III at the time.
I would also add that JB has been a lot more aggressive in 2016 already (1 commit and 7 other offers out).
I think Doyle will be a nice player.
Don't forget he doesn't turn 19 until May.
I think he'll just take a little more time to develop but he looks like a nice player and has a 7'2" wingspan.
Mitch McGary was 20 his freshman season and turned 21 that summer after.
…So he was 2 years older than Doyle when we saw him play first. He had Morgan to help teach him. Plus Burke as his PG and Stauskas/Hardaway chucking 3’s. Plus he played AAU and Prep School prior. And was still only averaging 6ppg and 6reb through February.
I think Doyle’s ceiling is limited to be honest. He can improve his defense and rebounding with coaching and time, but he’s already pretty polished offensively and he’s limited by his athleticism. He’ll be a solid player, but I don’t expect some huge sophomore jump from him.
I think Doyle will be a nice player.
Don't forget he doesn't turn 19 until May.
I think he'll just take a little more time to develop but he looks like a nice player and has a 7'2" wingspan.
Mitch McGary was 20 his freshman season and turned 21 that summer after.
…So he was 2 years older than Doyle when we saw him play first. He had Morgan to help teach him. Plus Burke as his PG and Stauskas/Hardaway chucking 3’s. Plus he played AAU and Prep School prior. And was still only averaging 6ppg and 6reb through February.
I think Doyle’s ceiling is limited to be honest. He can improve his defense and rebounding with coaching and time, but he’s already pretty polished offensively and he’s limited by his athleticism. He’ll be a solid player, but I don’t expect some huge sophomore jump from him.
While not a great athlete for sure, I think they can get a little more out of him with a full offseason. They can find a little explosion to help him finish and rebound.
While I don’t think Doyle is going to be an all American, I do think his ceiling is a bit higher than we may think. I wouldn’t necessarily call him polished at this point, when he receives an entry pass in the post he often takes much too long to make s decision (whether it be pass, shoot, put the ball on the deck) and ends up turning the ball over. Sometimes it works to his benefit if he uses the pump fake and then goes up, but often times it does not. Doyle already has the aggressiveness in terms of trying to dunk around the basket, just needs those 3-4 inches of verticality.
Biggest thing Ricky can improve to me is his reaction time, he just seems very slow to diagnose and adjust accordingly. I think his footwork is very undeveloped at this point. He basically is limited to the hook. I do think there is a point where we will see him score a few buckets a game out of designed sets when he becomes an upperclassmen.
I think Doyle has a similar ceiling to Morgan and it will take a similar amount of time to get to it.
Think he has the potential to be a much better offensive player than Morgan. Morgan was basically limited to finishing off PnR dumpoffs and offensive rebounds. I think Doyle will eventually become a guy that can create his own shot from the block a few times a game. Hell, we’ve already seen him do it a few times this year, in addition to a FT line jumpshot.
I think Doyle will be a nice player.
Don't forget he doesn't turn 19 until May.
I think he'll just take a little more time to develop but he looks like a nice player and has a 7'2" wingspan.
Mitch McGary was 20 his freshman season and turned 21 that summer after.
…So he was 2 years older than Doyle when we saw him play first. He had Morgan to help teach him. Plus Burke as his PG and Stauskas/Hardaway chucking 3’s. Plus he played AAU and Prep School prior. And was still only averaging 6ppg and 6reb through February.
I think Doyle’s ceiling is limited to be honest. He can improve his defense and rebounding with coaching and time, but he’s already pretty polished offensively and he’s limited by his athleticism. He’ll be a solid player, but I don’t expect some huge sophomore jump from him.
I think bigs have the hardest adjustment to the college pace.
Usually in HS you’re not playing against 6’9+ guys every night. In the paint, the physical nature is way more different than in the backcourt. Especially since he didn’t play AAU or Prep School like Mitch…nor did he redshirt like Donnal or Morgan. I mean, he’s a young true freshman. Comparing him NOW vs. their first year really isn’t equal.
I think the pace of the game, decision making, rebounding, strength, vertical, and finishing through contact will all improve. I’m not suggesting he’s going to be a star but I do think we have a nice player in Doyle to work around.
I think Doyle will be a nice player.
Don't forget he doesn't turn 19 until May.
I think he'll just take a little more time to develop but he looks like a nice player and has a 7'2" wingspan.
Mitch McGary was 20 his freshman season and turned 21 that summer after.
…So he was 2 years older than Doyle when we saw him play first. He had Morgan to help teach him. Plus Burke as his PG and Stauskas/Hardaway chucking 3’s. Plus he played AAU and Prep School prior. And was still only averaging 6ppg and 6reb through February.
I think Doyle’s ceiling is limited to be honest. He can improve his defense and rebounding with coaching and time, but he’s already pretty polished offensively and he’s limited by his athleticism. He’ll be a solid player, but I don’t expect some huge sophomore jump from him.
I think bigs have the hardest adjustment to the college pace.
Usually in HS you’re not playing against 6’9+ guys every night. In the paint, the physical nature is way more different than in the backcourt. Especially since he didn’t play AAU or Prep School like Mitch…nor did he redshirt like Donnal or Morgan. I mean, he’s a young true freshman. Comparing him NOW vs. their first year really isn’t equal.
I think the pace of the game, decision making, rebounding, strength, vertical, and finishing through contact will all improve. I’m not suggesting he’s going to be a star but I do think we have a nice player in Doyle to work around.
While I agree with you for the most part, I think the caveat is that athletic bigs are able to adjust quicker, especially with respect to defense. They have a higher margin for error because they can cover ground quicker and get away with late rotations because they jump higher to deter shots.
Totally disagree with the idea that Doyle’s game does not have a lot of room for growth. He is going to be very good. He is young. He will naturally lose baby fat, gain muscle and he might grow more. If he works out very hard, then he will be a beast in a few years. …He will never run the floor as well as Morgan or Mcgary but that is ok, few big guys do…Strength and conditioning is going to work wonders for Doyle!!
I think Doyle has a similar ceiling to Morgan and it will take a similar amount of time to get to it.
Think he has the potential to be a much better offensive player than Morgan. Morgan was basically limited to finishing off PnR dumpoffs and offensive rebounds. I think Doyle will eventually become a guy that can create his own shot from the block a few times a game. Hell, we’ve already seen him do it a few times this year, in addition to a FT line jumpshot.
Yeah, but I don’t see him ever being the defensive player Morgan was. In your last post you talked about his slow reaction times, and I think that’s as much a physical thing as it is an experience/diagnosis thing. He just doesn’t have the quick twitch ability to get from A to B as quickly as he needs to. I think the Morgan comparison is a good one in terms of Doyle’s ceiling, even if they’ll have different strengths and weaknesses, they’ll be about the same caliber of player. I think Ricky can have a nice career in Europe after 4 years here.
Also as for his post game not being polished: yeah, but he’s way ahead of where either Morgan or McGary were in that regard. He’s the first UM big I’ve seen with an up and under…now if he could just stop getting stripped on his way up to the bucket.
I think Doyle has a similar ceiling to Morgan and it will take a similar amount of time to get to it.
Totally disagree with the idea that Doyle’s game does not have a lot of room for growth. He is going to be very good. He is young. He will naturally lose baby fat, gain muscle and he might grow more. If he works out very hard, then he will be a beast in a few years. …He will never run the floor as well as Morgan or Mcgary but that is ok, few big guys do…Strength and conditioning is going to work wonders for Doyle!!
This is where I disagree, I think his body has largely been remade already. He’s already strong as hell and isn’t carrying much bad weight. There will be nominal improvements in his vertical jumping from this year to next, but nothing is going to make him quick enough to be the defensive presence Morgan was (not saying he can’t be an adequate defender with more experience, but I don’t think we’ll see an astronomical leap of any kind).
