Yeah, don’t really get the Ariza comparison.
He’s shooting .552 from the floor, and .375 from three. Those are hardly bad percentages. I agree his FT% will be a red flag.
Watch them - very similar styles and game.
Ariza much bigger and better multi positional defender.
Matthews has been the star we hoped for at Michigan; been a great addition to the program. I’m glad he’s in Ann Arbor. I’m very excited to see him lead us in the NCAA Tournament. I’m really interested to see him next year with the talent projected on the ‘18-19 team.
But he wasn’t known as a good shooter in high school and he was poor shooter at Kentucky. There were mentions of inconsistent shooting in practice at Michigan last year. For NBA scouts, he’ll need to show the 37/38% 3PT% isn’t a fluke by continuing that clip this season & backing it up again next season. The 2PT% is skewed by his athleticism & finishing abilities at the rim — which are unlikely to be open in the NBA for a 6-5 SG with below average handle.
The NBA is about individual matchup problems and have an exceptional skill to create &/or defend those matchup problems. DJ Wilson was a prime target for the NBA because of his height — his shoot and mobility at that height are rare. Wagner potentially provides matchup issues at the NBA level because of his shooting and ball skills at his height. Stauskas drew attention because of his shooting and seemingly endless range. Burke was the best player in college basketball so that’s what made him standout from others. Matthews doesn’t possess any of those; it makes his path to the NBA more challenging…as Walton is showing it is not impossible to get to the NBA with a more challenging route, but NBA teams aren’t lining up to draft you in R1, either.
My NBA write up on Charles would look like this:
- Elite wing athleticism
- Slightly inconsistent production, adapting to game.
- Surprisingly effective in pick and roll situations after limited exposure at Kentucky.
- Developing 3-point stroke, but free throw numbers are concerning.
If the playmaking continues to develop and the shooting improves, I could see his stock escalating quickly. It feels like he’s just brushing the surface of his game to be honest. Still so many correctable moments.
He’s also already 21 which is why a guy like Hami Diallo (who looks similar to him on paper, but doesn’t have any of the ball screen stuff) is projected as a late lotto pick at 19 years old.
One thing I would consider if I were him is that next year they’ll have more players who, in theory, can create for themselves and him. That could really help open his game up despite the potential for lower usage next season. He may be a rare player who has a chance to get picked higher for staying longer. Whereas I’m not sure Moe will have that opportunity.
My thoughts that I would add:
- Elite finisher in transition/open court.
- Developing passer out of pick and roll. Has decent change of pace and long strides that allow him to get to the basket.
- As you said, developing three-pointer, but has tendency to be too upright and fade slightly to the left on jumpers.
- Ball-handling needs improvement. Not comfortable dribbling in tight spaces.
- Understands team concepts on defense and can guard multiple positions. Above average lateral movement.
- Not strong, but is long and has a frame to put on more weight to handle NBA game.
- Can post-up smaller defenders and use his length.
- Pull-up and midrange game from the elbows is above average.
I can say I’ve been extremely happy with CM’s 3 point shooting ability. Without seeing much of him before this season, I guess I was expecting around 30%, but with much fewer attempts. But if he is open, I love that he has the green light and I feel comfortable with him shooting. I’m going to enjoy him while this lasts, and I’ll let the NBA thing play out as it may (or may not).
Speaking of this, has anyone else noticed MAAR’s jumper is looking somewhat funky recently? I might be imagining things but he seems to have a weird fade and his follow through is angled outward instead of towards the basket. I don’t have a video in front of me right now to fact check, just something I’ve noticed since Big Ten play started back up that coincides with a 5/17 stretch.
I don’t think this is quite true. He might have the potential to be, but he gets dissuaded from even trying to finish if there’s traffic. Maybe it’s because he’s nervous about FTs or not confident with his left hand or something else.
It’s not the shots he actually takes at the rim. It’s the ones that he doesn’t take but dribbles out, or that end up being jumpers, or that get stripped from him, etc. But I could be wrong.
I think those are all fair points. I’m not suggesting he’s a high first round pick or anything, only that he’s probably good enough to stick as a bench player.
With that said, another comp (and not a great one for him) is CJ Fair. But Glenn Robinson has forged an NBA path, and I really can’t think of anything other than FT shooting that Glenn does better than Charles.
Similar to Hardaway Jr. IMO - less usage in 2013 but better surrounding players and that translated into a first round pick.
Different positions call for different skill sets. I think Matthews has a skill set more suited to be an NBA 3, but he probably doesn’t have the frame to bulk up enough. He’s definitely not close to it right now. However, I do think you’re selling GR3 short a bit. For one, he just shot 39% from NBA range threes last season on 125 attempts. While he wasn’t as effective shooting it here, his form was solid. Matthews still has a long way to go with that. Also, despite how fantastic Matthews has been at the rim I do believe GR3 was even better, @umhoops can fact check that but I remember some absolutely absurd stats from him at the rim. I think the main thing is that his role was the same role that he had in the NBA and the abilities he had translated well, whereas Matthews would have to drastically increase his handles and off the dribble jumpers to be an NBA 2 IMO.
GRIII was more susceptible to blocked shots than is Mathews. Despite his vertical, he was the quickest off the ground and didn’t use his body as effectively as Mathews. Mathews is a little craftier and uses his superior wingspan. I give Mathews the nod at finishing through contact and on adjusting in the air.
I disagree with LA though. Robinson’s jump shot from 15-18 ft was way more consistent. Mathews is fine on that same shot but doesn’t yet have a weapon that consistent.
Well, Glenn was great at the rim because guys like Trey and Nik threw him some great alley oops. He didn’t get to the rim nearly as easy off the dribble as Charles does. Charles’ second year stats are way better than Glenn’s, and he’s asked to do more with less around him.
I do agree Glenn is shooting the three really well in the NBA, an unforeseen development.
Another big difference - we often give the ball to Charles to create, and in late shot clock situations, and his assist numbers reflect that. That almost never happened with Glenn.