The objection assumes that the quality of our 7-10 guys is comparable to that of the other teams you cite, and that Beilein is playing his bench less just because he doesn’t want to, and not because it’s too big a step down in talent and athleticism. I don’t think that’s the case. Last year, Donnal and Simpson were our 7 and 8 guys, and after that, Watson and Teske. Those are not guys that he could count on to not be a liability against top-notch competition, frankly, and I don’t think he was wrong to give them only as many minutes as absolutely necessary. Yes, that means that some guys may get a little overworked, but you go with what gives you the best chance to win.
Who do you think should have gotten more minutes last year among our 7-10 guys?
I may have been wrong but you seemed to be making a general claim that successful teams play their top 5 or 6 at a rate similar to JB.
I am not sure that is true. It is something that can be discovered but I doubt either of us have time to analyze the situation fully. I tried to do a bit of analyzing but my sample size is admittedly tiny…
I am relying on my impression over the years. It always seems like we have a few guys that are among the top in the big ten for playing time. I agree that some of this might be due to a disparity in talent level at UM. I am not entirely sure though because, taking last year for example, there were quite a few games where I thought it would be a good thing to give Walton a rest and z more playing time. There were situations where I thought we could afford to give Irvin and/or DJ a rest by giving Robinson more playing time. It is very situational…This is just my impressions from last year and based on my belief that over the course of a season those extra minutes have a cummulative effect in the bodies of players and they start to wear down if they are not given enough rest. (I think Burke mentioned this “worn down feeling” after his Freshman year.)
I think the reason we are having this discussion in a thread for 2018 recruits is that the 2018 class is most likely going to make us deep and without huge variance in talent. No super star types but extremely solidly talented players—like—potentially the whole roster is going to be capable of contributing in a meaningful way, which is awesome but it also creates a new set of challenges for JB. I am excited to see how JB manages playing time over the next few years…
Beilein has spoken pretty consistently about preferring a 7 or 8 man rotation. Especially in the NCAA tournament when there are longer TV timeouts.
It is rare to have a 1 through 10 who are ‘equal’ and generally if you can pick out the best 7 or 8 you can maximize your efficiency by having that group play together by having better chemistry, etc.
College basketball is very different than the NBA in that sense because you have the longer shot clock, shorter game, etc. An average Michigan game has 63 possessions (a NBA game has closer to 100)… how many can you afford to not have your best players on the floor for?
They also do heartrate monitoring and all the rest and I’m sure they keep a close eye on workload to see if guys are playing too much, etc.
So in your mind is JB an innovator regarding playing time distributions? Is JB conforming to standard practice regarding playing time distributions? Is JB’s past playing time distributions a reflection of his circumstances regarding disparity amongst his players?
I tend to think the fact that our best players are usually at 35+ minutes is why we seem to have a poor record in close games under Beilein (no idea if this is even true, but it sure feels like we do).
Generally speaking, record in close games has more to do with luck than anything (IMO). Obviously any specific close game has its own issues, but over time teams that play and lose a lot of close games are generally ‘unlucky’ in my opinion.
The only year that I really felt like Beilein ran a team into the ground was 2011-12.
I think JB is doing what he thinks is best. I think part of this is that everyone looks equal when they have 4-stars next to their name, but some people will be better and more ready to play than others and it is rare that a coach can’t pick out his top group of players.
I remember a couple years back, Beilein was talking about how they log every play in practice and use some of that data to determine what lineups are best, etc.
But for every Northwestern full court pass, there’s GR3 at the buzzer at Purdue. I think it is a tough subject to evaluate and ignore cognitive bias without actually going back through and keeping track of each game.
Looking at our overtime record might be worthwhile. Of course we would have to adjust our conclusions based upon assuming there really is wisdom in autobench
Yeah, it does feel to me like we’ve gotten a raw deal (I think particularly of Brust’s heave or Evan Turner’s prayer), but if you starting counting up the buzzer beaters that were or weren’t, it’s probably at least not as bad as it seems. Some indeed have gone our way:
-Zak Irvin making the lay up to send the game to OT vs PU in BTT (to cap a relatively improbable last twenty seconds)
-Wagner blocking Eric Davis at the buzzer against Texas
-Kam Chatman buzzer beater v IU
-GRIII @PU
-Jordan Morgan getting the charge call against Tennessee
-Morgan hitting the layup on the pass from Nik against UI in the BTT
-Trey vs Kansas
-Draymond missing two decent buzzer beater looks against us a few years back
So I’d say we probably have gotten a little unlucky but (a) that’s going to happen to some teams in a small sample size, and (b) we probably haven’t been as unlucky as we think we have.
Even with all this information It still feels to me that for the last couple of years and even longer our go to players have logged a lot of minutes and seem to play tired down the stretch. Looking back just this past season/tournament when Wilson had a break out year but there were several occasions when he seemed tired and could not get the blockout on a crucial rebound that got away. At Northwestern where Walton seemed to log every minute of the game seemed gassed at the end and barely made it up the floor for Zak’s last shot before the heart breaker. If X could have logged at least 10-15 minutes per game last year not only helps out Walton but also MAAR and maybe Zak.
JB going 9 and maybe 10 deep on a limited basis to keep the team fresh could go a long way. I think if JB has the horses that can produce he will adjust his rotations.
I see cross-cutting imperatives in this commentary. Even if the quality of your team overall is higher than formerly, you’re still going to ID your best rotation–and want them on the floor in important games. OTOH having one or two more guys that you can call on in a pinch, in unusual situations. . . don’t think the coaches are going to sneer at that. But I remember more times when our guys were warriors and came up big down the stretch than when their legs gave out because they had been overworked. Take the Big 10 tournament last year, for example.
Are there really many instances when Beilein has overworked guys?
I wonder if we get on TV more if our guys will stay more rested.
If I was JB I would be very excited about the depth not just because it provides him with a bigger pool to pick “the best 7”. I would be excited (if I was JB) because the collection of layered depth, with a variety of individual strengths, allows him to think about advantages gained/ lossed through matchups.
