D. Robinson 3pt % by Half

Saw this question on another site, and felt curious enough to investigate and see what the numbers said. The question being if Duncan’s 3 point shooting % is better in the first half vs. second half, and if that may be because of him getting gassed or having tired legs. I quickly looked at the play by plays for each game this season for Duncan from ESPN without counting the Northern Michigan game and came up with this. Can’t put in the full table I came up with, but will give the highlights

Total # of First Half Makes: 37
Total # of First Half Attempts: 64
First Half %: 57.8%
Total # of Second Half Makes: 22
Total # of Second Half Attempts: 41
Second Half %: 53.7%

I didn’t delineate the games where he was a starter or not. Also not trying to make any particular point, just look at the numbers and see if there’s any interesting discussion.

The disparity in number of attempts by half is pretty large, but the disparity in percent isn’t really that big, but he’s a crazy shooter to begin with.

My guess for the disparity in attempts is that Robinson takes a few threes early and makes a high % and the opposing coach tells the player guarding him, look, do nothing but make sure that guy does not shoot a three again.

And if this happens all year, it’ll be a very good thing for everyone else on the team. Also I’d venture that there are usually more transition opportunities in the first half and then the game tightens down in the second. That was certainly the case yesterday. He’s absolutely lethal in transition.

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Of course there are so many factors that are at play, and defensive adjustments are likely one big part of that. Just an interesting note that the numbers bear out that much of a difference.

Yup. You could see on the break where Irvin gets the ball to Donnal that a MD defender seemed more concerned about Duncan at the arc than a wide-open layup. In the half-court it essentially eliminates one source of help defense.


Also, he may have played fewer second half minutes in the blow outs.

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You guys care if I lift this into a little bit of a post? Seems like it’s worth looking at, at least.

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No complaints here! I’d be curious to see more facets to it!

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