Well, a couple things.
First, the offers for 2018 signal to me they expect Wagner to leave, which is hardly surprising since he almost left this year. No doubt they’ll hold a scholarship for one elite guy (Iggy, then longshots like Shittu and RJ Barrett), then take any of Ahrens, Locke or Tyson for the other spot.
Second, I think Wilson left because he was confident he would go in the first round, and he was right. If anything, his Big Ten and NCAA tourney performances suggest he would have gotten far more touches next year, not less, especially with Walton and Irvin leaving.