Bracketology

Michigan Basketball
1

Mistersuits from BYOBracket here, participating in the Bracket Project Matrix for the third year. Here’s a quick summary for everyone as we close the book on the conference regular season title and turn our focus towards the post season:

Bracket Matrix Top Seeds 3/4

Arizona 1.00 [—]
Florida 1.00 [—]
Wichita 1.07 [+0.08]
Kansas 1.69 [-0.01]
Syracuse 1.70 [-0.48] X
Villanova 1.91 [+0.24]
Wisconsin 2.06 [+0.25] X
Duke 2.30 [+0.20]
Virginia 2.72 [+0.81]
Michigan 2.83 [+0.51]
Creighton 2.92 [-0.70] X
Iowa State 3.44 [-0.04]
SanDiego St 3.94 [+0.40]
Cincinnati 4.17 [-0.20]
Michigan St 4.22 [-0.62]
UNC 4.55 [New]

The bracket matrix has matured to the point where the composite matrix is essentially the best “bracketologist” around. Last year it correctly predicted the top 16 teams, and at their exact seeding placement with the exception of Michigan which the matrix predicted as a 3-seed and Marquette which it placed as a 4-seed.

It’s safe to say the NCAA underseeded Michigan last year, but the concept of finishing 5th place in it’s conference was tough to overcome – even though one layup going in or out didn’t make Michigan a fundamentally different team in any way.

This year there won’t be any such misgivings as Michigan has won the B1G regular season title, but the final games and B1G Tournament will have an impact on the tournament seeding to come.

Michigan’s possible seed range at this point is 2 to 4 depending on outcomes of remaining games. Lose out and Michigan will be a 4-seed depending on how many losses teams around them sustain. Winning one more game all but assures them of a 3-seed.

The first three teams on the S-Curve in no particular order are Arizona, Florida and Wichita State. That fourth one seed is officially up for grabs given Syracuse’s late season collapse. Kansas is getting all the hype for it, but there are probably at least four other teams under consideration.

At this point in the season there are eight teams all competing for five slots - the last one-seed and the two-seeds: Kansas from the B12, Duke, Syracuse, and Virginia from the ACC, Michigan and Wisconsin from the B1G and Villanova from the Big East.

Creighton has all but taken themselves out of consideration for a 2-seed with their last two losses but they can get back in it if they run their conference tourney. Iowa State, Michigan State, and Saint Louis meanwhile have all cleared space “underneath” Michigan’s seed line. In other words, Michigan is much closer to a 2-seed than they are to a 4-seed. Michigan would need to lose twice more in a row to fall to a four seed and even then not likely. The matrix is lagging from tonight’s outcomes in which Michigan won by 30 while Syracuse, ISU, and Creighton all lost.

Michigan sits at 12th in the RPI with a very realistic shot of jumping ISU, Creighton, and Syracuse in the morning. Michigan has the fourth most wins against Top-50 RPI opponents behind Arizona, Kansas and Wisconsin. Michigan has “injury” considerations that the committee will deliberate on as they evaluate their entire body of work, if it comes down to it the 6-4 start versus the 16-3 finish will make the difference to push them up to the 2-line.

Now if we want to wax 2014-poetically here are your dream scenarios / rooting interests:

Kansas loses one of it’s remaining two regular season games they are resting starters for, they also lose in the B12 tournament.
Duke loses to UNC to end the regular season and loses in the ACC semis.
Syracuse loses at FSU in the regular season finale and loses in the ACC semis.
Virginia loses at Maryland to end the regular season and to North Carolina in the ACC tournament.
Villanova is upset by Xavier and then bows out in the Big East semifinals.
Wisconsin loses in the B1G quarterfinals to an upstart B1G bottomdweller.
Michigan beats Indiana and wins the B1G tournament.

Under these conditions Michigan would easily be the “hottest” team passing the eye test, RPI test, and SOS test amongst the eight contenders for the final one seed.

Also, root for the opportunity to play OSU in the BTT, not only because Michigan would destroy the Buckeyes but also to prevent a possible Round-of-32 tournament matchup possible under the new, relaxed conference seeding rules.

2

Top notch analysis and very thorough, thank you for this. Based on how unlikely it is for all of those scenarios that you listed to happen, a 1 seed is seemingly out of reach for us, but I would very much like it if we were able to snag one of the 2 seeds. I truly believe that we have the résumé for a 2 seed and that our strong finish (barring an early exit in the B1G tourney) should be acknowledged when the seeding takes place.

3

Great breakdown MisterSuits. Good stuff.

I don’t think we will be getting a 1 seed, but in my opinion there is not much difference between a 1 or a 2. Hopefully the scenarios play out to get us on the 2 line. Starts with beating IU Saturday.

Selfishly I am hoping we get placed in the Midwest (as a 2 or a 3), as attending a Potential Michigan Sweet 16 game in Indy is a real possibility for me.

4

Michigan is now 9th in the RPI this morning, moving ahead of ISU, Syracuse and Virginia. Creighton somehow still holds a very slight edge in the 8th spot.

If Michigan continues to take care of business, they are going to get a two seed - let’s just hope it’s not in Arizona’s region.

5

Excellent, Excellent expose! The quality and depth of insight from posters on this site never ceases to amaze me. Great job!

6

Great stuff @mistersuits!

7

Hard to swallow that Syracuse should be a stronger contender for a 1 seed than Virginia. How can you justify a top seed for a team that didn’t even come close to winning their own conference RS title? Seems like that should be a minimum requirement, unless there are two super teams from one conference. Ditto for Wisconsin vs us, although they did have a better NC performance than we did.

For us, a two seed is very possible, but we’ll need to give IU a smackdown, and do better than our usual 1-1 in the BTT.

8

Earlier I said I didn’t think there was much difference between being a 1 or a 2 seed. I saw on BTN some info that makes me want to revise that opinion.

Since the tourney was expanded in 1985, eighteen 1 seeds have won the championship. Only four 2 seeds have won it.

Percentage of seeds to reach each round since 1985:
Rd of 32 - 1seeds 100%, 2 seeds 94%
Sweet 16 - 1seeds 87%, 2 seeds 68%
Elite 8 - 1 seeds 69%, 2 seeds 47%
Final 4 - 1 seeds 40%, 2 seeds 22%
Champ game - 1 seeds 23%, 2 seeds 10%
Won Champ game - 1 seeds 16%, 2 seeds 3%

This info is probably inconsequential for us, since the 1 seed will be very difficult to attain, but I found it interesting and thought I’d share it.