Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)

Last year he said MSU.

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What will it take for MSU to get nervous? Are they already considered a bubble team, in some of the projections? It really seems like losing to elite opponents and sweeping Minny is keeping them afloat.

Whatā€™s the most losses a team has made the tournament with and gotten an at-large bid? Had no idea Syracuse was 17-13 with a week left

MSU is certainly on the bubble. Big chance today vs Wisconsin to solidify that resume though.

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Seth Davis just did his weekly Top 25 picks on Twitter and put Michigan at #18

Wow. We definitely have that potential and 5 of 6 may have sold him.

I donā€™t know that the media is down on the B1G. Most outlets project the conference to get what 7 teams in NCAA Tournament ā€” and none are projected in the First4 games. Thatā€™s showing pretty good respect for a conference.

Media ā€” and the committeeā€™s in-season snapshot ā€” just donā€™t think the B1G has an elite team. And based on out of conference results (and no team being fully dominant in-conference) that seems pretty reasonable.

I agree. The ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12 have the elite teams. Anybody know if any of the other conferencesā€™ elite teams are actually playing defense, this year (other than West Virginia and Louisville, per usual)?

I think we are definitely getting a little ahead of ourselves with the 6-7 seed talk. Are we playing well? Yes, definitely. Is it possible that we can reach a 7 seed? Also, yes. This team has still only won 2 road games all year, one being by a razor thin margin @ Rutgers. How would we feel if we lost out to NWestern, Nebraska, and our first BTT game (probably to a team like Iowa)? Probably very nervous going into Selection Sunday, possibly having to return to one of the play-in games.

I think everyone is basing that talk on winning out, then two tourney wins.

There are two games left in the season, and weā€™ll be favorites in one and slight underdogs in the other to a team thatā€™s lost 5 of 7. Itā€™s not so crazy to discuss the possible upside of winning those. And Iā€™m sure the team isnā€™t looking past Northwestern.

But we can discuss what happens if we lose out too. Obviously Northwestern has a lot on the line and itā€™ll be Nebraskaā€™s last home game of the year, with their coach on the hot seat and a couple dynamic guards, etc. Itā€™s hard to say exactly what would happen without knowing what happens with other teams, bid-stealers, etc. Weā€™d still likely get in ā€“ itā€™s going to be hard to find teams that can better our 3 top wins and the number of top 100 wins, as well as our high computer numbers, but weā€™d definitely be nervous and the first four might be a possibility.

Thatā€™s probably where we are now ā€“ in but with a fairly wide range of seeding possibilities left. And playing well.

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Still a lot of moving parts, but Furman and Iowa jumped into top 100 RPI, and Indiana got themselves a little off the 100 bubble this weekend. Would think that helps our resume as well

Huge win against Purdue probably cements us In the tourney and now itā€™s all about seeding. Sure wish we could have that OSU game to do over.

Yes, but we still have two more road games to play (which could leave us with 4 road wins) and we lost two road games in overtime.

Baylor is the 8th ranked D according to ken pom, Oregon is 20th I would say thatā€™s playing D as well.

Lunardi has us as an 8-seed now, playing VCU and in NCā€™s pod. Probably not an ideal actual spot for us but shows we may be rising up the seed line a bit. Crashing the dance has us as an 8 seed too, at 31 overall.

https://crashingthedance.com/seeding

Comfortably in the 8-9 range right now.

Itā€™s the last week of play and we will likely see several teams move on or off the bubble based on how they finish. Letā€™s hope Michigan is not in that discussion. We are in now, letā€™s win out and let other teams worry.

Thatā€™s a great call out and I think a bigger deal than it seems. It sure helps make the ā€œtraditionalā€ resume look A LOT better with no Lā€™s outside the top 100. Throw in an additional top 100 win with Furman and Iā€™m telling you, our resume is better than what people think.

I said it above, but I really think we get seeded higher then our expectations coming Selection Sunday. Even more confident in that if Iowa stays in the top 100.

Iā€™d even encourage looking at the difference now between Wisconsin and Michiganā€™s resume. Are they all THAT much different?

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One additional thing to consider ā€“ we pass the eye test. People donā€™t watch every single game, but plenty watch the big CBS and ESPN games. We dominated Purdue and IU (road) and blasted MSU and IU (home). Probably a bunch of people were watching the 2K Classic games too. And all these games came at the beginning when opinions form or closer to the end, which could keep them top of mind. Less people will remember that we didnā€™t look stellar beating PSU or losing to Illinois in January. Itā€™s not the biggest factor but could give us the benefit of the doubt if resumes look about equal. It might at least cancel out any lingering anti-B1G thoughts.

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