Bracket Watch: March 5th, 2019


#1

#2

The SOS numbers are such a weird thing. Michigan leads the country in Q1+Q2 wins and has played 21 games against those quadrants (soon to be 22), which is also the most in the country (at least amongst the top seeds). Yet our SOS is 62.

Gonzaga has only played 6 Q1 games, 14 vs Q1/Q2 and 17(!) versus Q3/Q4, but their SOS is somehow 44.


#3

It’s really interesting because, as you noted, Michigan is 62nd in SOS in the NET, but are 24th on KenPom and BartTorvik’s site, and 20th in ESPN’s SOS measure.


#4

I’m assuming that NET suffers from a similar flaw as RPI (although we will never truly know), where the quality of your buy games affects the rating a ton, despite the comparatively little difference in actual win probability. As usual, Michigan did a poor job scheduling their buy games (and this year their conference tournament), and it looks like it could cost us a seed line like it usually does.


#5

Is that last sentence really true? I thought we had been over this ground and a) established that a lot of the prevailing view of the poor early-season matchups derived from how poorly those teams performed throughout the season that followed and b) that we had done better this year. Maybe that’s just what I wanted to believe?


#6

Beyond the buy games, Michigan’s top level games in the NC weren’t very difficult either.

UNC home, Villanova road, Providence neutral, South Carolina home. Meh. Usually will have a few more high-majors, or better high-majors on the non-conference slate. That tourney in CT was a real dud.

The expanded Big Ten schedule also makes non-conference scheduling a bit more difficult.


#7

I get all that, but what I don’t get is Gonzaga. 17 games against Q3/Q4 is absurd and somehow despite that schedule and despite only playing 4 games against tournament teams the entire season, they have a better overall SOS than Michigan. What gives? Is the noncon schedule weighted more heavily than conference schedule for some reason? If so, why?


#8

Basically it all comes down to the tourney. If UM had three neutral court games against good competition, it would’ve been a pretty darn good schedule. I mean, UNC, @Nova + 2 extra Big Ten games is pretty darn good, and even SC turned out okay. Meanwhile, GW is awful and Providence mediocre.


#9

We should get some credit for the 20 game conference schedule. But, our no-con schedule really was a bit of a dud. Literally only a couple highlights there amidst Q4 gimmes. I think we need at least one-two more wins to sure up the 2 line. Definitely need to win out for a 1.


#10

3 way tie for first with 1 game to go. We took advantage of the Sparty loss last weekend and now it’s time to take advantage of the Boilers loss tonight to Minni on Sat. GO BLUE!