Blue, even if you gave Michigan only a 20% chance at winning each game (ie: 4:1 odds), that would give Michigan a 59% chance of winning one of those 4 games.
I'd like to believe it, but I have a really hard time looking at our schedule and finding 12 confident wins. As MattD pointed out, at WI, MSU, OSU and Iowa are very likely losses, and I'd have to toss IU in there too. KenPom notwithstanding, we just don't win down there unless we are overwhelmingly better, and we're not this year. That's 5 losses right there, and there are very probably two more among MSU/Iowa/WI at home and IL/PU on the road. Even at that point, we have to assume that Neb, PU, MN and IU at home are all wins, and that's by no means certain. Let's not forget that we only went 12-6 in the conference last year, when we started 16-0, spent most of the season in the top 10, and finished second in the country.I wonder too if KenPom’s evaluations are based on his ranking of Michigan with McGary. Us not having him for the rest of the year changes all that.
I agree that 9-11 conference wins is our likely fate. Assuming we make our usual non-impressive 1-1 run in the BT Tourney (an annual ritual, it seems), 9-9/17-13 will almost certainly not get us in the NCAA, given that we have no quality NC wins and a bad loss. 11-7/19-11 almost certainly will get us in…even with our NC record, it’s hard to see an 11-7 BT team being kept out. If we finish 10-8, we will probably be holding our breath on Selection Sunday.
I wrote up something a couple weeks ago on a different forum.
""If Michigan goes:
11-7 or better in conference (19-11 overall)… They are in no doubt, regardless of the Big Ten Tournament.
10-8 in conference (18-12 overall)… They are on the bubble, but in comfortably with a win in the BTT.
9-9 in conference (17-13 overall)… They are on the bubble and will need a couple BTT wins.
8-10 in conference (16-14 overall)… They are NIT bound.
Playing in a power conference is huge for SOS/RPI. The Big Ten being the best basketball conference is huge for Michigan. Last year, the two best conferences were The Big Ten and The Big East. You can use last year’s tournament for some reference (though the bubble is different every year):
Villanova (Big East) finished 20-14 and was a 9 seed.
Minnesota (Big Ten) finished 20-13 and was an 11 seed.
Illinois (Big Ten) finished 23-12 and was a 7 seed.
Let’s say that Michigan goes 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament (a reasonable hypothetical).
My predictions for seeding based on conference records would be:
22-10 (13-5). 5 or 6 seed.
21-11 (12-6). 6 or 7 seed.
20-12 (11-7). 7 or 8 seed.
19-13 (10-8 ). 9 or 10 seed.
18-14 (9-9). 11 seed, 12 seed, or NIT.
17-15 (8-10). NIT.
For every extra win in the Big Ten tournament, bump the seeds up by .5"
The top of the B1G and NCAA in general is much closer to the middle than any of the last few years…
Outside of Wisconsin on the road, I see no reason for us not to be competitive in any game. We will pick up some unexpected wins and drop some “easy” ones. I see 11-12 wins and a BTT win. We’ll do okay in the tournament but not really a contender before e make a run next year.
guestavo, exactly how I feel.
Now you’re lying again about what I said. I never said we couldn’t “compete”. I never said we couldn’t play a good game. I said it was unlikely that we’d WIN any of those games. Trying to discredit an argument that the other person never made is a sure sign that you know you’re full of shit.
And no, I don’t bow and lick KenPom’s statistical boots. He’ll probably say that we’re favored on the road at IU, but anyone who knows anything about Michigan basketball knows that isn’t going to happen.
Minny lost, btw…by a lot.
After the lead most of the game AND THEN went to OT lol
Blue, like I said, Michigan doesn’t need to be favored in any of those games to mathematically have a better shot to win ONE than lose FOUR games.
If Michigan has an 80% chance of losing 1 game, they have a 64% chance of losing two games, a 51% chance of losing three games, and a 41% chance of losing 4 games.
Being a 4:1 underdog in all 4 of those games is not likely. Michigan was a 3:1 dog @ Duke. However, even if they were a 4:1 underdog, statistically Michigan would bemore likely to go 1-3 than 0-4.
I wouldn’t even give us a 20% chance on the road against MSU, OSU or Wisconsin. This team has not shown anything so far this year to make me believe that they can win against a tough team on the road. Beilein is 1-15 against those teams on the road since he got here, and this is far from his best team, particularly on defense. He just simply gets outcoached against those guys.
Guestavo, I’d love to see how you think we can drop some “easy” wins and still get to 12-6.
And as far as the BTT goes, if we go 1-1 (as we always do) that REDUCES our overall winning percentage. It doesn’t help us get into the tournament, especially since our first round win will be against a very weak team. Your analysis also doesn’t take into account that we have no quality NC wins (no, FSU doesn’t count…they got punked by at home by UVA) and a bad NC loss.
If we lose some that we aren’t and win some we weren’t then it evens out
Winning percentage? The committee is going to look at the conferences SOS and allocate a certain number of seeds to get in regardless. Every measure has B1G as the best conference by far. The first 5 will get in comfortably and the last seed or two will be on the bubble. I like our chances of being that 5th team.
Honestly, I can’t wait til you eat crow
Evens out to what? Give us your prediction for results in the BT this year, game by game, with two losses in “easy” games (that’s PSU, Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern, btw), and show us how we realistically get to 12-6.
And eat crow? If we go 12-6 or better, I’ll admit I was wrong about this team. I’m predicting they’ll win 10 games +/- 1. Will you eat crow if they don’t win 12? Since the holy KenPom has decreed it?
And yes, if we’re 18-12 overall and we go 1-1 in the BT tournament, it REDUCES our winning percentage. Do the math. A first round win against a last place team and then a loss to a good team doesn’t improve our standing, and doesn’t impress anybody, no matter what conference we’re in. Sorry you don’t get that.
Will sound crazy to most, but of all 4 road games mentioned above, I think we have the best shot of pulling an upset at Wisconsin. I think that is the most favorable matchup for us, Wisc has taken a step back in terms of rebounding and they have 1 player in Jackson that creates penetration off the dribble. Much less offense in the post in comparison to what we’ve be accustomed to seeing with guys such as Luer and Evans. Hayes is the only legit post threat I’ve seen on offense. If we can do a decent job switching screens and rotating on the perimeter to prevent open looks from 3, I think we can compete. At OSU, we may compete simply because OSU can’t score, but I have a feeling we are going to have a high TO game in a pressure packed game and hostile environment. I think Iowa and MSU are just bad match ups for us period, and I think we may get punked by those teams on the road.
Who are the six B1G teams that are favored to get a seed come tourney time, BB? Please let me know since you love the doom and gloom scenarios…
I can’t see Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue or Indiana doing better than us in-conference
When have we ever been good at defense?
I saw these two quotes that essentially sums us up
“Beilein is one of the rare coaches with both seems to understand what are actually the most valuable metrics in his sport (aka, don’t turn the ball over, take the RIGHT shots (3-pointers + high percentage 2-pointers, keep the opponent off the foul line) AND is able to teach his players to both value AND implement strategies and techniques to further those metrics. There seem to be a lot of coaches that know what they want but can’t teach it, or coaches that teach fundamentals but don’t apply them in an overall way that is effective.”
"We’re not very good in man to man, but we’re even worse in zone. That’s why he doesn’t use it.
We really don’t have the personnel to run the 1-3-1. But, JB rarely employs it, because opponents get a good shot just about every time. He shows it more as something different than something useful.
JB has a different way to winning. He’s not big on defense, rebounding, post play. He concentrates on transition, spacing, win the turnovers battle, don’t foul, possess the ball. He’s got his own ideas of what works, and for him, it does. Losses can be frustrating to watch, but his way is winning far more than he’s losing."
I wouldn't even give us a 20% chance on the road against MSU, OSU or Wisconsin. This team has not shown anything so far this year to make me believe that they can win against a tough team on the road. Beilein is 1-15 against those teams on the road since he got here, and this is far from his best team, particularly on defense. He just simply gets outcoached against those guys.
Odds makers that are a lot better at coming up with lines than we are will be giving Michigan no worse than 4:1 odds. You realize that “20%” means that in 10 games, Michigan would only be expected to win twice right? So if Michigan played @Wisconsin 10 times, “20% chances” would say Michigan goes 2-8. That is pretty conservative, IMO.
If you think they are so wrong, you should have no trouble making a nice profit.
Based on your percentages, hail, what record would you predict Beilein to have on the road at OSU, MSU and Wisconsin? Because if it’s not 1-15, then you need to re-evaluate to get things in line with reality. Give us the hard numbers, if you dare.
You can flip a quarter ten times and get head every time. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a 50/50 chance of heads and tails.
It is pretty evident that you have never taken a statistics class, and I’m not about to give you a lesson, but there is a reason that KenPom can sell $20 subscriptions to thousands upon thousands of people. Statistics and probability aren’t just something people make up.
I asked you for your game by game predictions for us in the Big Ten, guestavo…why are you afraid to to give them? Come on…show us how we realistically get to 12-6 with two losses in “easy” games thrown in there, as you claimed that we could.
And we played very good team defense when we won the BT two years ago, btw
FWIW, KenPom projects the following games as Michigan wins:
PSU, Iowa, Purdue, @IU, NEB, Michigan State, @Purdue, Minnesota, @Illinois, Indiana
That would be 13-5, which I definitely don’t see but the probabilities weight it down to 12-6.
FWIW, KenPom projects the following games as Michigan wins: PSU, Iowa, Purdue, @IU, NEB, Michigan State, @Purdue, Minnesota, @Illinois, IndianaThat would be 13-5, which I definitely don’t see but the probabilities weight it down to 12-6.
BlueBasketeer is more versed in probability than Ken Pomeroy. BlueBasketeer should be millions off his knowledge.