People think he is one of the worst defenders in the league. It is that simple.
I mean, so was Nik Stauskas
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I was thinking about Stauskas when I wrote that: Is Winston better than Stauskas offensively? Was Sophmore Stauskas worse than Winston defensively?
I would say no to both.
Curious what others think.
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MSU’s defense was still quite good last year on the whole and in conference. The credit probably goes more to JJJ and others, but Winston still played 75% of the minutes on a team with a good defense, so it’s a little difficult to see his defense so totally countering his impressive offensive numbers.
I think we can safely say almost all of the credit does go to JJ and Bridges.
Better offensively since he had a much bigger role. Doubt Winston is much worse at defense, but it’s tough to quanitfy. Michigan’s defense was 89th on KenPom in Stauskas’ sophomore year, which is not good at all. But being worse than Stuaskas, B1G POY and lottery pick does not preclude you from being a top player in the Big Ten in 2018
Simpson without Wagner will have some new challenges no doubt but no one is suggesting he’s a top 5 player in the BIG10. Winston apparently is thought to be that good but my point is he doesn’t do nearly as well when he has to create his own shot.
So it’s not a big problem to have a terrible defensive player on an otherwise good defensive team – or at least a team with two very good defensive players…
JJJ and Bridges were not “good defensive players” they were an ultra- elite duo of rim protecting and shot-blocking. I have said before, on the forum, Winston’s failure to keep his man in front of him did not result in that bad of a situation for MSU but it is contingent on that unique situation. This year, I predict Winston failing to keep his man in front of him is going to result in lots of playmaking opportunities fo their opponents.
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Bridges played mostly on the perimeter last year and didn’t block all that many shots. Ward (and Tillman) were actually much better rim protectors last year. JJJ was obviously elite, but MSU’s 2-point defense was ridiculous as well.
.8 per game while on the perimeter on a team with a guy swatting 3 per game. Around top 20 for players overall. Probably top 3-4 for perimeter players overall, would be my guess. They were so good players would sometimes refuse to shoot a layup…
Plus he barely fouled.
Yeah, Miles was an elite athlete and he could block some shots. My point was more than MSU’s interior defense isn’t going to go away.
Bridges had a 2.5% block rate, which is good. Jackson had a 14.3% block rate which is elite (4th nationally).
Tillman and Ward were are 7.8% and 7.3% respectively.
Bridges was 62 percentile in blocks last year (2.5%). Wagner was 54%ile (2% block rate), DJ Wilson the year before was 94%ile (5.2%). I wouldn’t call him elite. Plus, JJJ infamously played only about half the minutes, while the way MSU played big sometimes put them at a disadvantage on the perimeter in terms of foot-speed.
The propositions (1) that Winston was one of the worst defenders in the league and (2) that’s a reason to significantly lower his ranking despite very impressive offensive numbers and (3) but MSU had a very good defense anyway can be harmonized so easily.
I appreciate the stats. Getting more blocks from a perimeter position than an nba center is significant, I think, even if Wagner was not a good shot blocker. And I am assuming DJ Wilson’s high shot block rate from a perimeter position is off the charts high for a wing.
So @gtfomycourt, you think MSU’s 2-point defense will fall from 1st to … with Cassius and without Miles and JJJ?
Regarding MSU’s interior defense not going away. It might still be ok but it is not going to be anywhere near as good. JJJ and Bridges are very different shotblockers from Tillman and Ward. Tillman and especially Ward are much more stationary. They are both the types of guys playmakers can make plays around. They also foul a lot per block I suspect. Bridges and JJJ could really block on the move. MSU’s defensive principles requires fouling low and guys like Tillman, Ward and Goins blocking high. Bridges and JJJ added another insane dimension to that strategy because their blocks do not require assistance at all. These are just my opinions…of course their defense will be worse. Their offense will be worse too. Winston’s offense will be worse and his horrible defense will be more apparent. These are my opinions.
I predict Winston will be ranked 15th or worse in next year’s preseason poll. 
Also, MSU benefitted in 2017-8 from a very favorable B1G schedule. 2018-9 does not appear to be the same from a scheduling standpoint. I think MSU FG% defense will not be top 4 in the B1G in 2018-9.
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I checked 3 teams last year: Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Vince Edwards had a 2% block percentage. Lamar Stevens was 3.6% (and Josh Reaves was 1.8%). Khalil Iverson had a 3.3% rate. I’m just not convinced Bridges was some kind of elite shot blocker.
I think it will be interesting to see how Winston’s offensive numbers hold up. He’s obviously a good shooter, but there’s at least some reason to believe his high 3pt shooting numbers will drop significantly and were in part a product of taking only easy 3s. For one, his shooting percentage dropped significantly against top 50 teams (30%), a trend that also occurred his freshman year. In total, he shot “only” 38% his freshman year, when MSU’s offense was not nearly as good.
And his turnover % was already pretty high last year and was even higher the year before – what will it look like this year without throwing lob passes to JJJ and Bridges? If Winston can keep his offensive numbers what they were last year, his rank won’t drop that low…
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Fair enough. I appreciate you checking stats. It adds a valuable dimension to the conversation!