I know it’s all about TV and scheduling, but we have a nine day break before we open the B1G conference season after the Furman game, debuting at Iowa.
It’s the longest gap for any B1G team, being the same as OSU. Other schools are 3-7 days apart. Prior to this we haven’t went more than five days between contests.
MSU will have played two league games before we’ve played any.
I’ll be very interested to see how “rusty” we are in that game after so many days off.
Yeah, it’s weird to have basically our bye (I think?) as the Big Ten opener.
For the most part though, I think that Beilein has tried not to play a game between Christmas and the Big Ten though.
We also have a bye between the @MSU and OSU games in late January, half-way through the Big Ten schedule.
Our schedule this year, in terms of the home/away splits, provides fewer guaranteed wins but more possible good wins. For instance, we get PU and OSU at home and don’t have to go to Mackey or Columbus, but we don’t get Iowa or Rutgers at home. In other words, we have fewer games with either a very high or very low probability of winning – i.e., more toss-ups – so estimating exactly how many wins we “should” have is a little different.
But I agree that the schedule provides a great opportunity for an 11-12 win B1G season with some high quality wins in there.
For more on this point, per KenPom we have 8 conference games with a win probability within 50% +/- 6%.
And 8 at 60+ it looks like.
Can we get a screenshot for the non kenpom members
Also, as a global thought as the nonconference season winds down, there are a few clear kenpom tiers:
-a top group in the B1G - Wiscy, PU, IU at 10, 12, 15
-then a pretty clear 4th - Michigan at 27 - and 5th - OSU at 38
-a next tier with Northwestern!, Minny!, and MSU (46, 48, 55)
a next tier with MD?, Illinois, Iowa (64, 66, 68)
-and then bad teams with Neb, PSU, and Rutgers (87, 108, 117)
Going to be very interesting to see how this plays out. All of the top tier has show weaknesses and none has been dominant, can any of them create some separation from the pack? Can UM or OSU get back into the B1G upper tier? Probably best not to get too down on MSU for now with Bridges coming back and Izzo’s track record, although he’s always been a bit better with experience and hustle than talented freshmen. MD has won a lot of close games this year (3 one point games and 3 others 6 points or less) - can they continue that? Can Minny or NU be a surprise player? And even the bad teams aren’t that bad this year – there were three teams that finished last year worse than Rutgers is this year – what upsets can they pull?
We really need to start at least 4-1 in conference play to set us up for a successful conference season. The schedule gets hard, fast in the middle. Have to capitalize on very winnable games early.
I’d really like to see Northwestern make the NCAA tourney. Losing to us while they qualify.
I’d really like to see MSU pull of the rare feat of losing to Northeastern and Northwestern in the same season
I’ll sign on - Northwestern in, MSU out. We shall see what happens with the Spartans. They are @Minny and vs Northwestern before the new year, which actually might be the kind of games that make or break all teams come March – we’ll see if Bridges plays in both/either. Of course, MSU has lots of young talent and Izzo could get them rolling later on.
The tone of MSU’s season will change drastically when/if Bridges comes back completely healthy and Izzo gives Winston, Ward and to a lesser extent Langford bigger roles. It’s nonsensical that Goins and Nairn start over the first two right now.
As far as that, Bridges has basically already been ruled out for the Minnesota game.
Probably right, but we’ll see - and we know that foot/ankle injuries don’t always clear up so smoothly or quickly.
It will but they’re going to have to prove a lot in the Big 10. 7-5 with no big wins and a bad loss aren’t helping any.
Any predictions on how we’ll do with the Big 10 schedule? We’re sitting at 10-3 non-conf.
Home: Penn St, Maryland, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio St, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue
Away: Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska
I’m going to guess 11-7 to finish pre-BTT 21-10.
H) PSU, Mary, Neb, Illinois, OSU, MSU, Wisc (7-2)
A) Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska (4-5)
13-5. Losses to IU, Wisc, Purdue at home, Wisconsin and IU on the road. Sweep Sparty. We’re in the thick of the B1G race all season but ultimately fall short with an 0-5 record against the top 3 teams.
23-8 going into big ten tourney. 25-9 after a couple wins. 6 seed in the tourney
I’m gonna guess 7-11 with wins over Penn State, Nebraska home and away, Rutgers, Illinois at home and away, and Maryland.