The opinion I’ve decided on, is that I believe that the KenPom three point attempt rate theory is generally true, but our D is so bad that it is an anomaly… The lower attempt rate has more to do with how easy it is to get shots in the paint against us, as opposed to great close outs.
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The ease of getting into the paint against us probably, at least partly, accounts for some of the decrease 3FGA. But the other half of the debate is why are they making such a high percentage: and I dont really buy that our shot contesting is poor enough to account for it. I get that not all contests are created equally, but simply being in the vicinity should result in <50% makes.
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Among Williams, Lyle and Loving, I see three guys who can knock down open threes, and we’ll give them the chance. I’ll bet those three combine for at least 10 threes against us.
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For all the Miles Bridges can’t shoot talk…he’s 37% for the season.
For all the Josh Langford isn’t instant impact…he’s averaging 7ppg, 2asst, 3rebs on 47.3% from the field and 40% from 3 and looking better by the day. I’d kill to have that from X or Ibi right now.
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Bridges at 41% from three is impressive, he’s obviously improved his stroke – which was the one thing keeping him from a huge pay day. He also had pretty terrible shot selection in AAU, which has been improved a bit this year.
That MSU team just can’t score efficiently enough this season though.
I think everyone here loved Josh Langford and wanted him and is mad that Michigan didn’t get him. I also think people would be a bit disappointed if he was avging 7 ppg. He’ll be an easy pick for breakout star next year in the conference I’d guess. Assuming Bridges leaves, and with a year of experience, he should move into a featured role.
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All of the Langford hate was so premature and just wishful thinking. Who knows how our W-L would be affected, this year, but swapping Langford for Ibi (or Davis, for that matter) sure seems like it’d swing both the trajectory and perception of this team. He’d likely be our starting 2, with the highest upside on the roster, and JB would have gotten that elusive All-American. In short, Langford hurt. I haven’t been following recruiting for long, but it’s hard to think of a miss in recent memory–mutual interest required–that hurts as bad.
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Not his lack of creativity and care with the ball as a ballhandler? I’ve always touted a PJ Tucker comp.
Fair point. He had some nice baskets off the drive today. I think sooner or later Michigan State has to give him more of a playmaking role and sink or swim.
I thought Bridges was 37% from 3? If he really is shooting 41 he’s a lock for a top 10 pick period
But I’m going to guess 1 or 2 makes isn’t going to make the biggest difference in where he gets picked.
Bleed Blue:
Iowa was 11-19 from three vs UM. Is .364 in conference from beyond the arc.
PSU was 8-19. Is .282 in conference.
Maryland was 10-15. Is .402 in conf.
Illinois was 9-14. Is .340 in conf.
Nebraska was 9-18. Is .437 in conf.
Had to check out the rate to see what you all already know.
UM is giving up a % of .552 from three. That’s an astounding number.
It is difficult to understand, isn’t it? When Beilein hired Donlon I assumed Michigan D would take a step forward at some point. Does that step up take awhile longer to assume shape? Maybe a transition to a better defense, and versus the three point shot included therein, needs a commitment to a strategy and at least a season to implement it effectively?
Here’s what I do see. It’s seems relatively easy to get to the lane/rim area on UM. If that’s a given most games, and personnel are continually chasing, I think it throws attempts to effectively defend three-point attempts off considerably. Personnel to carry it out and an organized defensive effort make a difference. When opponents don’t see those things on film it adds a layer of confidence to their expectations. Now I think opponents greet game day feeling they can get their stuff.
When UM had it’s recent great teams I don’t feel it was that easy for opponents to get what they wanted.
Best I can do. Hope that adds something.
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Yeah, maybe with repetition he develops feel but right now the kid is a walking turnover with the ball.
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We’ll see. For me it depends on who comes out on the other side of today’s wormhole. OSU might hit those threes you speak of and UM might still lay a 10 point win on them.
OSU sometimes appears to be consistently off in it’s own dimension at times this season and that’s a factor that’s carried over from last season. I saw them draw together a little today. But who knows what will happen at Nebraska?
Bridges was out of his mind today from three. I didn’t expect that type of show. I thought of him as more of a “look how incredible my dunks are” type of player. Guess I hadn’t seen enough of him to know.
Sparty is sitting at 12-7, their next 5 games are:
@Indiana
vsPurdue
vsMichigan
@Nebraska
@Michigan
Izzo’s tourney streak could get real dicey soon
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So I crunched some numbers to further beat the dead horse that is Michigan’s 3pt defense (using season-long stats, except for Michigan’s current conference 3pt% against):
As @ghostofstjohnarena pointed out, our conference opponents are shooting 55% on 17 attempts per game
I wanted to know what our opponents would need to shoot, for the rest of the season, for that average to drop to 40%, which would be on par with having the worst 3pt% defense in the conference, but not astronomically so (currently Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan fall in the 38-40% makes range).
Assuming our opponents continue to shoot 17 3pt attempts per game, they would need to shoot 34% (make 75/221 shots) for our end-of-conference 3pt% against to fall to 40%. For reference, only 5 teams are shooting 34% or worse on the season and we’ve already played 2 of them (PSU and Nebraska).
Similarly, the average 3pt% in the B1G is 36%, and if we wanted to fall back to that mean, we would need teams to shoot 29% for the rest of the conference season (make 63/221 shots). For reference, Rutgers is the only team to come close to that (28.6%) with OSU being the next closest at 32.6%.
None of this helps to explain why teams are shooting such a high 3pt% against us, but I think it puts into perspective what an unfortunate statistical anomaly we have been for the last 5 games.
Nah. They can easily go 3-2 in that stretch and get to 20 wins overall.
They could. Or just as easy they could lose the next 2 and we have 2 shots at giving them their 10th loss with over a month left to play still
ESPN is obnoxious and doesn’t update their player stats until the day after a game, I’ve made that mistake several times.
It should be getting a lot dicier than it actually is. They’re 32 on RPI because the dumbasses on the selection committee think it’s acceptable to use a system where margin of victory and home court advantage don’t matter. They only have one really bad loss and all of their close wins vs. terrible teams don’t even matter.
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