Big Ten Basketball 2020-21 Discussion (Part 2)

Can’t they zoom in? That was the best view available?

Doubtful. He’ll be back. With his usual bag of Dirty Tricks.

Shockingly high-scoring game between the two NUs.

Huge comeback by the Huskers!

Huskers playing inspired ball

Luka Garza getting his number retired next year, well deserved.

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Teddy Buckets… Addition by subtraction?

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Seems that way. They’ve played really well without him.

Northwestern’s defense is a big fan of just watching the offensive team

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Why pass up an open 3 to drive into traffic? That was the shot.

Ballgame rests on Collins drawing up a play on the grease board. Hnggg

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Needed to make that second pass sooner.

It makes you appreciate the play we ran to MAAR/Poole. We had that perfectly timed.

Wasn’t bad - Nance would get single coverage and if he drew extra defenders he’d throw up to the backboard and let Young work. I assume that’s what he wanted.

Good news for Iowa

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I don’t really understand why Wisconsin is considered a lock to make the field and Michigan State has been fighting for their lives. The only real difference between the two is their NET, but I think a point can be made that Wisconsin’s NET isn’t exactly indicative of their play.

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This is pretty compelling, they are literally almost identical. I guess the reason the NET rankings are so different is based on the efficiency margins of the games? Wisconsin is 287th in Kenpoms “luck” measurement while MSU is 17th so that supports the idea that Wisconsin has performed better than MSU despite the resumes being similar. But I completely agree with your point here, MSU should not be far behind Wisconsin.

WAB has Wisconsin 27th and MSU 46th

I like this comparison. I vote they both miss the tournament.

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The resumes are a lot closer than a lot of people realize, but I think there are some key differences:

  • Wisconsin’s record is going to be better. Assuming an MSU loss today 16-11 vs 14-12 is a 1.5 game difference. Plus a 2 game difference in conference play.

  • Once again assuming an MSU loss today, Wisconsin will be 9-11 in Q1+Q2, while MSU will be 8-12.

  • Wisconsin has a slightly better avg NET win and loss, a significantly better non-con SOS, and a better road record. Obviously all of those come with the caveat of this season is weird and those numbers are skewed/don’t mean as much as a normal year, but combined they make a difference.

  • Building off the non-con SOS, MSU had one “good” non-con game/win (and Duke isn’t even good, but @Duke is Q1). But they also had 4 Q4 games, so if you were to ignore those games which are basically auto-wins, MSU is gonna be 10-12 after today. Wisconsin without Q4 games would be 13-11, which is once again a 2 game difference.

  • And as much as NET is wonky this year, I don’t think you ignore the differences in computer metrics between the two teams. Wisconsin is clearly not as good as we thought coming in, and arguably not a top 25 team. But their overall MOVs have clearly painted them in a better picture than MSU, and that played out when we saw the two teams play. Wisconsin beat MSU by 9 @ MSU. A 47 spot gap seems too large like NET has currently, but a gap large enough for Wisconsin to be in the field and MSU on the bubble seems fair to me.

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Part of what is affecting MSU’s NET is how many blowouts they’ve had. If they kept their losses closer, their NET would look better. But that’s the biggest difference. When MSU loses, they get run off the court. They have 8 double digit losses, including 3 that were 25+ point losses. Can’t discount how many beat downs they’ve had when assessing the resume

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