The Mike Smith nugget from Sam Webb has me really fired up. Next year’s roster will be more physically gifted but without a capable point guard it would have a much, much lower ceiling. Frankie Collins is a terrific athlete but he’ll be a true freshman and a poor shooter. Zeb’s offseason development remains to be seen but becoming what Mike Smith has been for this team is a nigh-impossible transformation in one summer.
Now I am thinking about next year’s B1G. I’m going to use the current 2020-21 standings to order these thoughts for the sake of convenience rather than try to project.
Michigan. We are losing an all-time great shooter in Livers, an ascendent wing in Wagner, and an elite backcourt defender in Brooks. All very difficult to replace and the team will likely take a step back, considering the B1G 20-21 is currently the best conference in CBB history and Michigan is at the top of it.
Illinois. First candidate for a big tumble. Their top four contributors per Torvik’s PRPG! metric are Ayo, Kofi, and two seniors. (On this note their #3 performer is Da’Monte Williams with a 9% usage rate and 9 made 2s on the entire season. He’s shooting 58% from 3 but 56% on FTs. Even if he comes back as a super senior he probably won’t replicate those shooting numbers.) Curbelo has been the second-best freshman in the B1G behind Dickinson but he is not Ayo, most notably in his outside shooting. Kofi’s heir at the 5 is Coleman Hawkins, a skinny freshman stretch. Illinois is going to look so different at both ends without its centerpieces that it’s hard to predict anything besides a steep challenge for Brad Underpants.
Ohio State. All sophomores and juniors except for Kyle Young and CJ Walker. I will not be surprised if one or both of them run it back anyway. Regardless this team will be a monster again next year. Probably my preseason pick for B1G champs.
Iowa. The Age of Garza comes to an end. Iowa’s defenses in the Garza/Bohannon era have been extremely awful, much more so than Fran’s historical baseline. I would expect this team to take one step forward at that end and one step back on offense and hang around the middle of the B1G.
Purdue. These Baby Boilers will be sophomores next year and a sexy candidate for B1G contention. They don’t have a single senior on the roster and their high-minutes juniors (Trevion, Sasha, Hunter) are not threats to leave early, I don’t think. They will get a protected seed.
Wisconsin. Technically all their 30-year-olds could come back, who knows, but I am taking this opportunity to kick Greg Gard while he’s down. His team stinks, his recruiting stinks, and his options for next year stink. Johnny Davis is going to remind us of those Penn State guys (Stevens, Taylor, Newbill, Battle) who played 95% of minutes trying to drag the program’s corpse into the tournament. Tyler Wahl is the only other returning contributor who sees minutes and he stinks too. This team is going to stink.
Rutgers. Returning projections are okay but this team is one unexpected departure away from a cliff. If Harper or Myles Johnson get some rosy 2nd-round projection and they jump at it…look out. They only have one 2021 incoming, a PG ranked outside the composite top-200, so there’s probably no cavalry coming. Only one of their 20s (Omoruyi) has seen any time yet but Pikiell usually takes his time with development. The idea of Paul Mulcahy getting like 85% of minutes just doesn’t scream contender. Pikiell’s system is talent-invariant so I imagine the floor will be high but the ceiling will be low here.
Indiana. A lot depends on whether TJD is determined to leave. He has no jumper, even less range than Dickinson. Some broadcaster recently hyped him as a 3 in the NBA – pure nonsense. I do like Armaan Franklin and they have three freshmen playing 20+% of minutes, but who knows how it all comes together? Wasn’t this supposed to be the year? When is it going to happen for Archie? They only have one 2021 coming in (a 6’9" C ranked #74) but they don’t really need him if everyone returns and plays to their potential.
Maryland. Only two seniors with playing time, Galin Smith and Darryl “Discount Charles Matthews” Morsell. There are rumors that Mark Turgeon is looking for a way out, perhaps heading back to Wichita State. This nothing-but-wings roster would be exceptionally weird for someone new to inherit and I think Turgeon has actually done one of his best coaching jobs this season, so their projection depends entirely on who the coach is. If Turgeon leaves this team is headed to the basement. If he returns I don’t see why they couldn’t go .500 again. Their recruiting is pretty weird too btw – all wings again.
Minnesota. Carr declared for the 2020 Draft and came back so he is probably a lock to bounce this time. What does Minnesota look like without him? Jamal Mashburn and Tre Williams actually looked pretty good filling in for Kalscheur in the last game @Indiana. Overall doesn’t feel like a candidate to take a big leap or a big tumble.
Michigan State. Izzo has played 500 different lineups this year, none of which are good. They are going to need their freshmen to play immediately next year, especially in the backcourt. Akins and Christie are elite and MSU should be okay there. But what about the 5? Enoch Boakye just spilled the beans: we can expect another season of musical chairs down low with Thomas Kithier somehow prevailing.
Penn State. They’re in rare company with Wisconsin in that they actually lean fairly heavily on seniors. If they all come back for a bonus year and Penn State finds a full-time coach, they could pass someone like Minnesota or Maryland and get into the top 10 of the B1G. I wouldn’t bring Ferry back as his resume is atrocious. Penn State is pretty openly indifferent about its hoops program though, so who knows.
Northwestern. They’re now #73, below their preseason Torvik projection of #68. Can’t shake the feeling that you have to be a special kind of clown to make the first March Madness in Northwestern history and turn it into absolutely nothing. Not even a sniff of .500 or a Chicagoland 4-star. At least Bill Carmody ran a good offense.
Nebraska. I think Hoiberg is safely a better coach than Collins and the 5-star McGowens should be ready to play. They’ll be better. Better than Northwestern only, or can they knock off Penn State, Minnesota, etc? Only two seniors, Thorir and a guy I have literally never heard of – Kobe Webster? He plays 52% of minutes?
I dunno what to say about M next year, though the Smith snippet is awful tempting to riff on, I agree. If your starting point is a PG/C tandem like him and Dickinson – assuming that’s the case here – well that’s an awful nice starting point before you even consider the two five-stars coming in and whomever else you might have.
You make a good point that from today’s vantage point, it feels likely that Michigan will take a step back next year. But three months ago it looked like this might be a weird year and that next year would be the real lift-off. So who the heck knows? If Juwan pushed this group way beyond expectations you give him the benefit of the doubt for next year’s group as well? Dunno, but lots of discussion ahead in the summer…
If both Smith and Dickinson return, I think you can pencil in Michigan as a top-10 squad. If either or both leave, things get weird. I don’t wanna hold onto the Mike Smith snippet too much, I still don’t think its super likely to happen, but man it would change everything. It would also help the development of the younger guys a lot to not be forced out there so soon.
Too many questions for me to say top 10, assuming Franz, Livers, Brooks, and Brown all leave as expected (not to mention part-time starting center Austin Davis who closed the game last night! ). It will be a team with talent that can maybe grow into a top-10 or 15 squad by the of the year, it just won’t be my expectation going in at all.
Fair enough. I think 2-4 there would be a ton of questions in that situation, it would be crazy to lose Isaiah, Franz, and Eli and not question that. But as far as the college game goes, the PG and C spots are the two that seem to be the most important, especially as far as experience goes. Having a veteran PG back and a dominant center would go a long way.
Houstan and Moussa are two guys who should fit in very nicely, though they will only be freshman. I also think that having Terrance and Zeb back will help a bit too, and who knows, maybe one of them takes a leap. (I expect there to be a good chance Johns transfers). Im really excited for Kobe but replacing Eli’s defense and consistency is no small task.
Overall, plenty of question marks, without a doubt. But nothing in college basketball is more important than having experience and great play from your PG and C, and Smith and Dickinson would bring a lot of that. 2-4 would be full of question marks but we have the pieces to fill those spots in.
I’m with you, it’s a top ten team. You’re filling in the two most important positions in college basketball with excellent options and you have a plethora of talented options at the other spots. Smith and Dickinson are good for 60 minutes give or take, that means you’ve got 140 minutes to distribute-- something like:
If Johns and Williams are both around then for both of them to get playing time above spot minutes then either one of them has to become a 3, which neither has shown even close to Isaiah Livers levels of ball handling or shooting so far. Or Diabate has to be Dickinson’s backup exclusively. Just not enough time at the 4 and 5 otherwise.
Agreed that Hunter and Smith give you a really great floor/baseline to work from. I’d hope that Hunter can be a Big Ten POY candidate, and a monster on both ends of the floor.
I’d have some small worries about Smith’s role: going from a guy who’s great for the current version of this team (table setter, selective scorer) to one where we’re asking a lot more out of him. Would he go from great as a fourth option to just average/above average as a second or third option? Regardless, him and Dickinson together should give you a solid Tournament team, that’s top half of the Big Ten, and has a tremendous amount of upside. Top 10 is definitely possible if the other guys around them play to their talent level (that would also take the pressure off Smith, minimizing any concerns about his projected, getting-way-ahead-of-ourselves role).
In '19 they replaced 2 thru 4 around a PG/C combo and had an elite team. So here again, if you start with the PG/C combo of this year you already have a very high floor.
I’m a sucker for these way-too-early speculations in basketball but it is just impossible to know anything since there are so many moving parts in this sport. We think Dickinson is returning, we hope Smith is returning, Johns is a wildcard, we will have a ton of freshmen…impossible to know.
What I did take away from your list is that there isn’t one team on there that isn’t facing a major overhaul or uncertainty of their own with the possible exception of OSU (grumble, grumble). Illinois and Iowa are about to hit the reset button in a bad way while MSU is hoping they go the opposite direction. Then you have the middle-of-the-road teams hoping to get incrementally better.
I’m not quite ready to buy into Purdue…I think they’ll be good and a top-half of the conference team, but as much as I like some of their players, I don’t see them getting a ton better next year. They have one shooter, two bigs that can’t play together, and a lack of a strong PG.
Again these are all very fair points. With Smith though I think I feel a lot better. Firstly, with Dickinson’s dominant presence, Kobe likely being more aggressive offensively than Eli, and Houstan and Diabate out there, I don’t think Mike Smith’s role is gonna increase as drastically as you may think. Secondly, were Mike Smith’s role to increase, Mike is a dude who has shown that he can be that #1, high-usage, take-every shot kinda guy (what he did at Columbia). Now obviously this is not going to be the case, nor would we want it to be. But based on the player he was at Columbia, the season he has had this year, and the fact the he will have already had a full year in the Big Ten… I’m comfortable with him being a third option out there, maybe an occasional but not often second option.
Your point stands though that we would be better off if he was lower on the offensive-option priority list, and I’m not entirely sure who will be that next option after Dickinson. Between Caleb, Moussa, Kobe, and others I would expect we can find that guy.
). It will be a team with talent that can maybe grow into a top-10 or 15 squad by the of the year, it just won’t be my expectation going in at all.