2016-17 was a strange, strange season. That team had a high ceiling and low floor.
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Itâs unfortunate MSU is waving the white flag.
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Feels like an unfortunate reference to an unfortunate comment. Hope they get better, COVID is brutal, even for young people
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State of the conference updateâŚ
Ohio State is still the toughest team for me to figure out. Michiganâs blowout against Wisconsin buried their numbers.
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Feels like PSU is going to stick at the bottom after they had some hard fought losses and now have missed so many games. Hard to see them rallying.
Also feels like Northwestern is on a free-fall to the bottom as well.
Then thereâs the middle. I think all of those teams are tough in their own wayâŚbut none of them are over .500 at this point.
I think it is impossible to say with such a long layoff⌠They havenât really played many games against the middle tier other than an OT loss at IU.
Minnesota has had the toughest conference schedule (if you discard PSUâs 3-game slate). An âaverage B1G teamâ playing Minnesotaâs schedule would have lost games by an average of 10.8 pts/100-poss, but Minnesota is only losing by 5.9 pts/100-poss, so they are playing 4.9 EM above an âaverage B1G teamâ.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Eff Margin | Opp Avg EM | EM+OAEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 6-0 | 114.3 | 91.7 | 22.6 | -9.2 | 13.4 |
| Illinois | 5-2 | 112.5 | 96.3 | 16.2 | -6.8 | 9.4 |
| Iowa | 5-1 | 118 | 103.5 | 14.5 | -7.0 | 7.5 |
| Minnesota | 3-4 | 102 | 107.9 | -5.9 | 10.8 | 4.9 |
| Penn St | 0-3 | 104.8 | 115.6 | -10.8 | 12.6 | 1.8 |
| Ohio St | 4-3 | 108.8 | 99.6 | 9.2 | -8.8 | 0.4 |
| Wisconsin | 4-2 | 104.8 | 101.5 | 3.3 | -3.5 | -0.2 |
| Northwestern | 3-4 | 101.5 | 111.3 | -9.8 | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| Purdue | 3-3 | 98.1 | 102.4 | -4.3 | 3.2 | -1.1 |
| Rutgers | 3-4 | 104.7 | 110.1 | -5.4 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| Maryland | 2-5 | 99 | 109.6 | -10.6 | 6.5 | -4.1 |
| Indiana | 3-3 | 103.5 | 104.6 | -1.1 | -5.5 | -6.6 |
| Michigan St | 2-4 | 97.7 | 102.3 | -4.6 | -7.2 | -11.8 |
| Nebraska | 0-5 | 92.5 | 113.8 | -21.3 | 5.9 | -15.4 |
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Yeah, Minnesota has already played at Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa. Pretty remarkable.
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OSU plays @ Illinois this weekend. That will tell us a lot about them. Two of their three losses have been against teams with legit bigs (Purdue and Minnesota). If they can find a way to be competitive in this game (or somehow win it) without their first two PGs, then they start to look like the best dark horse candidate to win the league.
If they get blown out like they did @ Minnesota, then they start to clearly look like a team that will beat up on the bottom half of the league but get beat up by the top half/anyone with a legit post player.
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Northwestern has lost 4 in a row @Iowa, @Michigan, Illinois, @OSU. There next 2 games are Iowa and @Wisconsin. Thatâs brutal.
Once they get out of this stretch their schedule eases up and I could see them winning a few games here and there and not end up in the basement.
That is particularly brutal, but to be fair any team in the bottom 5 or so of the Big Ten has a brutal schedule by default.
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Northwestern has the toughest league schedule overall. They are a decent team I think but the conference schedule will make it tough for them to even get on the bubble.
Yeah, but 6 games in a row against what seem to clearly be the best 5 teams in the league is different than that. I think they can compete with Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, PSU, Nebraska, etc.
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I totally get thatâŚbut after that stretch theyâre probably going to be 3-6 and even the âlighterâ schedule after that maybe gives them 50/50 chances to win those games.
I think the true test of these middle/low tier teams is going to be whether they can stay together and continue to fight hard knowing that they are going to struggle through some long stretches of the season. If Northwestern (or anyone else) can come out of that stretch and claw their way even close to .500âŚthey SHOULD make the tournament. I just donât see it. Their underlying performances outside of Nance donât give me confidence. Boo Buie torched MSU for one of their high profile winsâŚand heâs barely scored in the last three games.
Joey Hauser assists update: 1.9 per game, tied for 6th on MSUâs roster with noted playmaker extraordinaire Malik Hall.
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More MSU-related shadeâŚ
Rocket Watts has their highest AST% by far (30.1) and their second-lowest TO% (11.7), but remember whatâs best for the team is that Rocket shouldnât ever play PG again.
Breakout PG of the future AJ Hoggardâs AST% is 26.4 and TO% 20.1
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To be fair, Hoggardâs assist and turnover rates are better in conference play (36.1%/16.6%), though his shooting numbers are eye-bulging-out gross in those same games (41% 2, 17% 3, 63% FT).
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MSUâs assist numbers are always insane and Iâm not sure why. @umhoops I think you guys mightâve talked about this on a pod, but I forget what was said.
What is it about Izzoâs offense that causes the top assist rate in the country in 5 of the last 6 years, finishing 3rd in the year they werenât 1st. Itâs obviously not a Winston thing.