Big Ten Basketball 2020-21 Discussion (Part 1)

I knew it was coming

4 Likes

With the caveat that I saw like 5 minutes of the game, does he mean Hoggard? Because in those five minutes I am still very much not impressed.

1 Like

And here comes the media Izzo redemption arc for the next 24 hours

7 Likes

I think he does. Which seems crazy

1 Like

I donā€™t think itā€™s about whether he actually impresses the opposing fan. Heā€™s giving them better minutes than Watts did at PG and relegates Loyer to the bench. Hoggard has played good on ball D and has 11 assists 3 turnovers in 49 minutes.

I mean, if the standard is works better than what they had, okay. I guess. :man_shrugging:

Just seems like a below average Big Ten starter and if thatā€™s your solution, maybe you have a ceiling.

1 Like

Not sure what they were at prior to the game, bit Rutgers is now 33rd on Kenpom and 32nd in Torvik and their offense fell to 45th and 44th.

1 Like

Wouldnā€™t that be the standard when youā€™re winless in conference and looking for answers?? I donā€™t know if itā€™s fair to label a frosh who hasnā€™t played a lot this year as a below average starter. They had lost 3 straight, they needed to find something that works and probably at a time when you have Nebraska/Rutgers/Purdue coming up that was probably the best time.

1 Like

I hope Michigan continues the trend tonight.

2 Likes

Road wins by team:

Michigan: 2
MSU: 1
Maryland: 1
Rutgers: 1
Iowa: 1
Northwestern: 1
Wisconsin: 1
Illinois: 1

So Michigan has the most, but Maryland has the best and either Iowa or Wisconsin has the best among contenders.

Michigan is now projected at 14-6 in conference, tied with Wisconsin and Illinois at the top, on Torvik.

As for road games, Michigan has PSU, Minnesota, Purdue, NW, Wisconsin, OSU, Indiana, and MSU.

What record does Michigan need to compete for a title, and what record do you reasonably project? Only Wisconsin seems like an unlikely win, but the others are mostly toss ups

Agree with you. With the exception of Wisco, all road games are toss ups.

I could see us dropping 3-4 of the road games and 1-2 at home. Would be disappointed with anything less than 14-6 at this point.

For some reason the Penn State game (if played this weekend) scares me. Seems like a let down game (especially with Wisco on deck) after we hopefully take care of the Gophers tonight.

1 Like

Itā€™s going to be tough for anybody in the conference to get to 16-4. Just too many tough games all around, so 15-5 would seem a pretty safe bet for at least a share of the title (if not outright). 14-6 probably has a decent shot at a share of the conference title. I think Michiganā€™s most likely outcome is somewhere between 12-14 wins. We will be in lots of close games and some will go against us. If we stay totally healthy and catch some fortunate bounces we could get that 14-15 wins.

2 Likes

I think 15-5 wins it.

Games we should win (gets us to 10):
vs. Minnesota
vs. Maryland
vs. Indiana
vs. MSU
vs. Rutgers
vs. Iowa

Games I lean win (gets us to 15):
@ Penn State
vs. Wisconsin
@ Purdue
@ Northwestern
vs. Illinois

Need to steal one
@ Minnesota
@ Wisconsin
@ Ohio State
@ Indiana
@ MSU

The nice thing to me is, @ Wisconsin is really the only game I see as a highly expected loss. They could easily lose 1-2 of the ā€œlean winā€ category and make those up with 1-2 wins @ Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana, MSU.

1 Like

Surprised you have Iowa as should win, even with the home caveat. Iā€™d probably drop that to lean win, and drop home vs Wisconsin to need to steal. I really donā€™t like that matchup. Then put @ Indiana or @ MSU as a lean to win.

3 Likes

Haha especially @buckets12 of all people. He is the #1 Hawkeye fan on this board

2 Likes

Another way Iā€™ll be looking at the conference race:

Games remaining against the top 4 (Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan) vs. losses to teams outside of those 4 teams.

Iowa - 4 top 4 games remaining, 1 loss outside
Illinois - 4 top 4 games remaining, 1 loss outside
Wisconsin - 6 top 4 games remaining, 1 loss outside
Michigan - 4 top 4 games remaining, 0 losses outside

If people want to extend that outside of those four contenders, it separates the others IMO.

For example, MSU - 5 top 4 games remaining, 2 losses outside (3 losses overall)

2 Likes

I really am haha and I stand by it especially when comparing them to Wisconsin. But their road games have beenā€¦not like their home games.

I like your way of looking at it. I think, especially given Rutgers implosion last night, that there is a pretty clear top 4. I am starting to become less sold on the strength of the middle of the conference, especially in relation to those top 4 teams. Losses outside of the top 4 will tip the scales in the race. I still think given Michiganā€™s schedule they have a leg up.

Another piece to consider now that ā€œpostponementsā€ are happening is what happens if teams canā€™t get to 20 games. Or if some teams have a full schedule and others donā€™t. Penn St. doesnā€™t look to be a contender, but there schedule is going to be brutal when they have to put in postponements. What happens if an outbreak happens to one of the contenders? Gonna make for some messy scheduling an difficulty forecasting the league race.

1 Like