Maybe I need to turn it back off. The Huskers are looking pretty bad these last 2 minutes.
Izzo is the worst.
Mikal Bridges had unfished business of losing in the 2nd round again.
Cassius had unfinished business of his team taking a clear step back
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Miles. Bridges.
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El Amin was a stud
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DNP - undisclosed illness.
Speaking if illness/injury, anyone heard an update on Eli?
I don’t get the Aaron Henry hype. I mean I do in the sense that he’s a 6’6 guard who’s athletic, looks the part, and looks like the ultimate star from his highlight film.
But on the court he’s a thoroughly average to below average player. His ORTG is 99 on Torvik and that drops to sub 90 in conference games, top 100 games and top 50 games. His ORTG, EFG%, TS%, OREB%, DREB%, TO%, BLK%, STL%, FTR, 2P%, and 3P% have all dropped from last year to this year. The only things that have improved are his USG, FC/40, FT%, AST% and 3PA.
If you look at his shot distribution on Torvik, he has dunked the ball 4 times all year, compared to 14 last year. If you combine his shots at the rim and dunks this year to last year, he’s on pace for around 90 shot attempts this year and he was at 92 last year, so he’s not getting to the rim on a consistent basis like you think he should (despite playing 15% more minutes this year). He’s attempting a lot more long 2’s however (already surpassed last season’s total) but this year he’s being assisted on 60% of those shots compared to 30% last year, so it’s not like he’s creating those shots for himself. And he’s attempting 3 3’s per game compared to 1 last year, but all of his makes are assisted. He doesn’t create any offense for himself, or at least create it well.
I get that he has all the potential and all of that, and it’s very possible that maybe he puts it together and is a stud next year, but everyone said that this year. Is there any reason besides hope to expect him to be anything more than a league average player next year? Especially once you remove an AA PG and potentially an All-B1G C from the starting lineup next to him?
Same goes for Watts to an extent. Obviously you can look at him and tell he’s not going to be a 90 ORTG type of guy next year just based on talent. But him getting to average/slightly above average is a big leap from where he’s at, so how much more can you expect?
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Henry is a good spot up shooter and has the tools to be a lock down defender, but his ceiling is an elite role player, basically a Matt McQuaid that could play the same role in the NBA.
The hype of him as a potential lotto pick or #2 creater was always a joke. The reality is if you don’t already have the ability to take someone off the dribble and get to the rim to create your own shot by the time you step on campus, you will never be able to develop that skillset.
There was plenty of talk this summer that Livers was going to be able to add that to his game for this year.
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Yeah, that was also silly.
Henry has definitely improved as a creator this year and Livers has certainly diversified his scoring. Are they complete in those areas? No, but I don’t think it is fair to say it is impossible to make those sort of improvements.
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Livers has improved his handle enough to be able to attack closeouts and push the ball in fast break. Those types of improvements are possible. He is not a guy you can give the ball to in an ISO situation and he’ll be able to beat his guy off the dribble.
It’s much like plate discipline in baseball, by the time a guy is in the low minors you already know whether he’ll be capable of maintaining a plus walk rate or not. You don’t see guys who are free swingers develop into guys with elite plate discipline.
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Yeah I’d agree. Passing and ball-handling, I think are skills that mostly peak by the time you hit college. You can definitely improve at them, but a guy who’s not a creator archetype going into college isn’t going to make massive massive improvements I don’t think.
Henry has improved as a creator for his teammates, his AST% is up to 18% from 12%. I forgot to include that in my original post so I edited that in there. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Henry improves, it’s very clear he has the potential to do that. I’m just saying there’s nothing from a statistical/production standpoint to indicate Henry will take that leap.
Even looking at Livers as an example. Livers took a massive leap from freshman to sophomore year in almost every category (literally a statistical improvement in every category minus OREB%). Then if you look at his shot profile and you can see his shot profile start to diversify a little bit (taking more 2’s than the previous year while seeing a drop in how many of his buckets were assisted, especially in long 2’s and 3’s). Then fast forward to this year and you see the same trend. Livers has taken more 2’s this year (in only 17 games with another 8 or so probably left) than he has in either year previously, with an increase in FTR and a decrease in % of buckets being assisted. The rest of his statistical profile is pretty similar to 2019. He took a big jump from freshman to sophomore year, and has taken another jump this year, but the groundwork for that was all laid prior to this year.
My point with Henry is that nothing in his profile stands out the same way. He’s taking the same amount of 2’s at the basket despite playing more. He is taking more 3’s, which you do want to see from him, but his 3P% has dropped. And he’s taking more long 2’s, but 60% of those are assisted this year compared to 30% last year, and his percent has dropped slightly to under 40%. Then you look at the rest of his profile, where almost every other statistical category has seen a drop, and I just don’t buy it.
I’m not saying he can’t improve. Guys flip the switch all the time, maybe his is between sophomore and junior year. And I’ve been wrong millions of times before, so what’s another. But I just don’t buy any talk of Henry being a consistently good player or difference maker until he shows it consistently. And this will be my last novel on Aaron Henry haha.
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I am working on writing about Livers so don’t wanna dive too far into all of his stats but with Henry… he’s pretty clearly not where he needs to be and struggling to get to a new role. I don’t think the fact that he’s struggling in it now means he can’t get there. Just that he definitely isn’t there right now.
That’s fair. I don’t want to spoil a piece or anything there haha. And agreed, Henry could get there, and maybe a new role would be the switch for that. I just personally won’t believe it til I see it because of his stagnation this year, but as I said I could without a doubt be wrong on that.
Like Michigan State big tonight over Iowa…
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I’m tuning in to MSU tonight to see Garza. For a big man, he’s fun to watch. Hope he puts 40 on the Spartans.
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State is absolutely packing the middle when the ball goes into Garza. If Iowa can hit the three tonight they have a fighting chance to win.
Izzo’s jacket 
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A lot easier to do that without Fredrick in the lineup. Kriener and Toussaint are not big shooting threats.