If our defense can’t get it together against Purdue, that will certainly be worrisome! Unless they go off like they did against Virginia…
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I know I’m guilty of just assuming that Virginia would more or less continue being very good despite all their personnel losses but lord have mercy do they stink on offense. 203rd in AdjO (14/15 in ACC play) and have failed to reach 50 points in four of their 14 games (65 is their high-water mark, achieved three times).
As of this morning, here are projected final conference records for the B1G:
Torvik KenPom
1st: 15-5 1st: 15-5
2nd: 12-8 (x3) 2nd: 13-7
5th: 11-9 3rd: 12-8
6th: 10-10 (x5) 4th: 11-9 (x3)
11th: 9-11 7th: 10-10 (x3)
12th: 8-12 10th: 9-11 (x3)
13th: 5-15 13th: 5-15 (x2)
14th: 4-16
So if Michigan wants to have a double bye in the B1G Tournament (and a top 5 seed in the NCAA tournament), the team needs a dozen conference wins. The most likely route to 11 more wins seems to be:
7 or 8 wins at Crisler
1 win at MSG
1 or 2 wins at Nebraska and Northwestern
1 or 2 wins at Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers, Purdue, OSU, and Maryland
It would be really difficult to fit a home loss to Purdue into that projection, so there’s a bit of pressure tonight.
5 Likes
Two 9-11 teams not even getting a single bye kind of blows me away, but with the parity thus far, seems like a fair possibility.
Keep in mind that KenPom projections project towards the mean scenario. Generally the mean scenario isn’t going to happen and some teams will get lucky/unlucky. That parity won’t be quite so perfect.
At the risk of cursing the team (sorry in advance), I’m still really confident this team wins 12 conference games at the absolute minimum. 13-7 would be my prediction. I know Rutgers and Penn State are better than normal but Michigan is battle-tested at this point and I just don’t believe the middle tier of the league has the horses to beat Michigan consistently especially in Ann Arbor.
Should Win:
vs. Purdue
@ Minnesota
vs. Penn State
vs. Illinois
@ Nebraska
vs. Rutgers
@ Northwestern
vs. Indiana
@ Rutgers
vs. Wisconsin
vs. Nebraska
Should Lose:
vs. Michigan State
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State
@ Maryland
Toss up:
@ Iowa
vs. Ohio State
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Don’t see how @ Minnesota and @ Rutgers can be “should wins” right now. Have to put them in the toss up category with @Iowa. And I’d upgrade @Purdue to a toss up. Those 4 road games will be really tough to win, but we should hopefully win some.
6 Likes
I just think objectively Michigan is a much better team than both Minnesota and Rutgers. I can see how others might disagree. Minnesota lost to Oklahoma and DePaul at home this year. Rutgers lost to St. Bonaventure at home. They have both beaten ranked teams at home as well, so it’s definitely possible. But I would be disappointed in a loss in either of those games if Simpson and Teske are healthy
Almost need splits for with and without Livers, because his availability drastically changes Michigan’s chances.
Michigan has been so healthy since Caris’ injury bug. I forgot how much injuries suck
3 Likes
I wonder how people would feel about last season if Matthews hadn’t been injured for two of the three MSU games.
5 Likes
Minnesota @ MSU is looking like a good game so far. 4 point game with MSU out in front at the break. Oturu and Tillman both having nice games so far. Also Dakich is fighting through a cold and it’s quite enjoyable to hear his fight.
Carr is getting fucked with these calls. Good game tho!
I still think little Rickey is tweaking at every presser. There is meds, lad.
Looks like Tillman is now what people expected he would be when they were getting ranked #1. Same with Winston. Basically all they’re missing now is a few % points on Henry and Brown’s 3 pt attempts.
4 Likes
No nights off for Teske this year.
So we should be terrified of Oturu having a career game on Sunday? Got it.
4 Likes
It is crazy how many really good big men this league has. The majority of them could start for damn near every team in the country.
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Hmm. Maryland -2 at Iowa. Hard to bet against a home team, even after the Hawkeyes’ abysmal performance at Nebraska.
Not only would you have to bet against a home Iowa, but you would have to bet FOR Mark Turgeon. I’ll pass on that one.
4 Likes
Maryland put up 24 in the 1st half against a team that thinks playing defense is as real as the hollow earth theory.
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