One thing that will slow down player development some, though, is the fact that we’ve been landing a lot of recruits, so there’s depth at most positions now.
Starting in 2020, you’re probably going to see the following guys back: DeJulius (junior), Brooks (senior), Nunez (junior), Livers (senior), Wilson (sophomore), Castleton (junior), Davis (senior). It’s possible that Johns is a two and done player, but I think he probably stays at least three years. And if we land Carton, with the other guys we’ll have in the backcourt in 2019 (Simpson, DeJulius, Brooks), my guess is he plays at least two years, which means he’ll be around in 2020, too. So that’s at least nine guys. Gone from the current roster will be Poole, Matthews, Simpson, Teske, and Iggy. That assumes Poole and Iggy leave early, which I think is likely.
But yes, by the fall of 2021 (three years), we could be looking at almost an entirely new team.
The bad news, if any exists, is we have several possible early entry guys, but we probably won’t know if they’ll leave until after the 2019/2020 season is concluded. This would include guys like Iggy and Johns, and to a much lesser extent Wilson and Carton.
On the other hand, if those guys do leave, it likely means we’ve had a very successful season and we have a couple guys headed for the first round of the NBA draft, which should boost recruiting.
Honestly, the only “sure things” to be around by the fall of 2021 would probably be DeJulius (given his size, I think he’s probably a four year player even if he turns out to be as good as Derrick Walton, the guy most compare him to), Nunez, maybe Jalen Wlison, and Girard if we land him. Carton seems like a two year guy to me. And I think Castleton, assuming he takes over the center position in 2020/21, is a guy with real NBA potential too.
We’ll just need to really monitor everyone’s progress and probably be a little more aggressive about oversigning, which I think JB might strongly consider given the pro prospects of many of these guys.