I think the on-the-court argument against Todd is solid if Livers is coming back. If we knew Christopher was coming I’d be not all that upset if Todd left but we got Williams and Christopher in the fold. But you always should get excited about five-star talent, and Livers could very well leave. His stock won’t get higher after a senior year, and it shouldn’t be all that low.
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He would likely be top 5 on the roster. But that isn’t how it works. He won’t be playing guard–Brooks or I’m guessing Zeb at the point–and apparently not center. I’ll be shocked if 6’9" Wagner plays the two. So that still leaves Wagner, Livers and Todd for 2 positions. Give me the experienced one.
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Senior year Livers and Sophomore year Wagner would both impact winning way more than Todd and it isn’t even that close IMO. Todd is uber talented but that doesn’t always mean he will help a team win games. From what I can see he will have to learn how to play to his strengths and impact winning at the college level. I think he is more than capable of that, especially by the end of his freshman year but Wagner and Livers would both be absolute studs next year. You have to wonder if Livers comes back and Todd comes in if that might make Johns question whether he should transfer or not.
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However solid he was in other areas, if you’re shooting 35% on more than 12 attempts a game and turning the ball over almost 3 times a game (while not being a key ballhandler), it’s very hard to make up for those deficiencies elsewhere. Overall, I do believe he was a negative impact. He was drafted off of potential more than anything.
It’s not like he was a major factor on the boards or anything either. I’m not going to pretend like I know how much impact he had defensively, but with those numbers offensively it’s very hard to make up defensively.
Like @kturnup said, he was a disaster offensively, but might’ve had a positive impact due to Duke not having other options. However, if we have BJJ and Livers next year, we WILL have other options other than Todd. In that case, I would be worried that Todd would have an overall negative impact for one year due to his inevitable usage (because of his hype), and then leave for the NBA.
That’s why I think people should try to temper expectations and judge him by his full game performances and efficiency rather than his raw highlights (which aren’t great even by HS standards). It’s detrimental to everyone if things don’t go exactly smoothly. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zeb Jackson ends up a more important player to the program. I love him so much as a prospect and it would hurt to see him not succeed, but all I’m saying is let’s temper expectations; it wouldn’t be the worst thing if he chose another option and it wouldn’t be program saving if he stayed with us.
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Todd does look to me like a very talented guy who is going to need to grow into his game, and often that gestation is a bit longer for super tall 4s. but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to make a whole bunch of great plays along the way, an impact the game much more positively than negatively when he’s out there.
I wonder if Brooks is ever going to be moved back to point guard. He’s in a pretty ideal spot right now, and it would seem fairly natural to slide DDJ into the point guard slot next year. On the assumption that Livers leaves, and (just because I want him here so much) that Christopher comes, I bet we see a backcourt of DDJ and Brooks with Christopher the 3 and Wagner at 4. Would be lovely to have a bench of Hunter Dickinson, Cole Bajema, and Zeb Jackson.
i personally would expect ddj/brooks, christopher, franz, todd, castelton
I just really think people are underestimating the type of two-way player Todd projects to be almost immediately next year. If Livers returns, he will be an all-conference player, I get that. Franz will be very good next year too. Claiming they both are guaranteed to help the team win more than Todd before he ever gets to campus just seems a little off to me. It could be true that he ends up needing a little more time to put it all together, but it also could be true that he comes in and is a dominant college player. The tools he shows on film seem highly likely to translate quickly in my mind.
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There are plenty of one-and-done guys who come in oozing potential and flash plenty of it whilst making loads of mistakes and not necessarily contributing to wins over the course of 35 games. I’m not going to rule that out for Todd, but it’s not most of them. We should want this guy on our team for sure.
I feel like the safe pick is Livers and Wagner. Hard to find to get more impactful than 4th year senior that was ranked in the top 100 and has contributed heavily every year he’s been in the program. Then for Wagner he’s seen as a potential first round pick next year. Hard to say right now, but if I had to guess their draft stock would be about the same (referring to Wagner and Todd). Those 3 would potentially be our best 3 players. Between the 3 of them they are probably somewhat interchangeable at the 3 and 4 spots so thats 80 minutes between them, pretty good. That would then leave us with 2 brutally obvious transfer candidates. Which, okay. We’ve dealt with that before.
I typed some more stuff and deleted it. All this to say, imo Juwan has proven himself in every aspect of coaching a college team besides 1: roster building. Not to say he isn’t good at that, just something he hasn’t been able to show yet. We shall see how he does.
IMO if both go this year then Wagner goes much higher. Younger, taller, more offensive ability. I’m just thinking that Livers is the 3&D athlete the NBA really wants these days, even if he has a stronger case with the 3 than the D in terms of more-athletic NBA 3s. If he’s minded to be an NBA guy the logic is probably pretty strong for him to get on with it.
But man it sure would be fun to think about how much we could bully teams on offense with DDJ and that pair of forwards, Brooks as the steady low-usage shooter, and whatever we can add to that. If it’s Todd then just zone up on D and don’t worry about it too much past that.
@umhoops, what do you think about Todd at the 5 next year? Possible or even likely? Ideal? Would Todd himself be an obstacle to that?
This conversation makes the best case for Todd keeping his options open. It’s in his best interest to go to a situation that allows him to showcase his abilities and grow as a player. Livers and Franz are 3/4s and Johns is a 4. So it’s smart for Todd to see how things shake out, if all three come back and what that means for him in terms of available minutes.
Haven’t been following this whole thread but you guys seem to be making a problem out of nothing. What’s the “problem”? That Michigan would have too many skilled basketball players with size? Seems like a problem most coaches would love to try to fix.
Why can’t Franz, Livers and Todd share the floor?
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This is the best way to view it. We really don’t know how impactful Todd, or virtually any highly rated recruit, will be as a freshman, as so many of them have difficulty adjusting to the speed of the college game and/or simply aren’t particularly good basketball players (as opposed to high ceiling talents) when they leave HS. What we do know is that Todd is a high ceiling talent, and those are the guys that we want.
Same people doubted Jordan Poole (question his decision to stay in draft) and Duncan Robinson j.r ( a certain person said that there is no way he he plays in the NBA and a lot of you agreed). People said DJ Wilson and Wagner made mistakes too. You never know what will happens. I see a lot of “fans” doubting our players. Liver can be a pro and more than likely will be. My point is you never know what will happen. Nobody expect Poole to be drafted, especially in the first round same with Mortiz, THJ and DJ wilson. There are some people that said if they was Gm, they wouldn’t touch Caris levert, after that Arisona game. The point is …let these kids determine their own future. I thought people would learn by now.
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This. Lots of interesting points being tossed around, including some built-in excuses to calm us if Todd goes overseas. But We want him. Period.
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Cam Reddish did not have a negative impact for Duke. Isaiah Todd will not have a negative impact for Michigan if he comes here. Any team anywhere would be happy to have a five-star.
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It really just seems like a lot of you guys are actively trying to drive expectations for Todd down because you’re worried he might not make it to Ann Arbor. Even in the event Livers is back it would still be a very welcome addition to also have Todd.
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