Wagner’s more likely to go pro this year—because his upside is far higher. And as we all know, the NBA drafts on potential.
I think you could make the case two ways:
- Wagner is the higher upside prospect
- Livers might have more risk returning as far as role and crowded roster and not playing with Simpson.
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Livers leaving now would remind me of if Tim Hardaway Jr. would have left after his sophomore season.
He was on the radar but not likely to be selected. He could have been worried that GRIII/McGary would affect his numbers negatively, or he could look at it as an opportunity to be the upperclassman scorer on one of the most talented teams in the country.
It worked out for THJ, and I think he probably had a higher ceiling as a prospect than Isaiah does, but say Livers returned and was a top 2 scorer next year alongside Christopher, Wagner, Todd, Brooks, Dickinson, the spotlight on that team alone might elevate his stock a bit. If he just stayed healthy for a full year I think it would do wonders for his positioning on boards, but that’s easier said than done.
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This begs the hypothetical: would you rather have a loss in the Elite 8/Final 4 this year with Franz leaving, or Franz back next year for a chance at a title?
The answer to one of these hypotheticals should always be a Final Four.
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In reading different articles about Franz, I really get the feeling that he would stay another year (unless he DRASTICALLY moved up to lottery pick status)… he came over to the US to experience the culture and live the college life. He could’ve gone pro in Germany, but chose not to. Think he stays for one more.
But watching him the last few weeks, he just oozes pro potential - reminds me of AK47, really able to do a lot of everything.
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Final Four, I agree. Let’s change it to a loss in the Elite Eight. Thoughts then?
I refuse to acknowledge such a question. A Wagner must always be on the team. Like, forever.
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There’s also a lot of risk that without X his offense stagnates and his efficiency goes down. THJ’s 3 point shooting fell off a cliff his sophomore year so he had something to prove.
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All in favor - aye!
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So much of the NBA discussion seems to focus on a players inability to do things at a level against the top NBA level. Can Livers guard an elite off the dribble NBA wing? No, but Livers is completely capable of guarding a 3&D bench wing in the NBA. Livers would be able to guard somebody like GR3 who couldn’t take college fours off the dribble. There are plenty of players in the NBA who do nothing but provide spacing on offense. Coaches aren’t incompetent, they are capable of avoiding/limiting a players weakness based on matchups. Livers has flaws, he’s not a guy who can play 30+ minutes a night on a championship contender. If Livers is capable of shooting around 40% from 3 in the NBA, he will have no issue finding a role as a bench guy who gives a team 15 minutes a game.
Coming back to college won’t help or hurt him in that regard. It will only help him potentially get a guaranteed contract and more money up front if he can play himself into an early second round pick, but his long term potential to stick will simply come down to whether he’ll be able to shoot at a high level in the NBA.
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I’m on board with this. To me, Liver’s floor is still a bench role in the NBA (though his ceiling is probably never going to be higher than a 3rd or 4th option on a mediocre team). The kid can put the ball in the basket, and he understands basketball.
He’ll have opportunities to shoot up the boards in March, and I imagine he will get very positive feedback when he tests the waters in the spring.
I’d bet a large amount of money that, if he’s in the draft, he’ll get selected…thus I don’t think there’s a great risk for him to leave. There is a much bigger risk if he returns, goes through another injury situation, and then becomes undraftable after his senior season.
I would say Livers has a way to go before he is a rotation NBA player. Just a basis for comparison, George Niang is a 8th leading scorer for the year for the Jazz, who are in 6th place in the west. Niang was rated roughly the same as Livers as a recruit (50-70), so athleticism is roughly comparable (neither are obvious NBA bodies). Niang was Big12 freshman of the year and 3-time all Big12. He had over 120 games started. That’s a little unusual.
8th leading scorer of the 6th place team in the east is James Ennis III of the 76ers. He is maybe a little more comparable, but even still, he probably has slightly stronger resume. He left Long Beach State after two years. 2nd year he was conference player of year and 20ppg scorer at 20 y.o. Long path to current success – 3 years in G league. Has now played NBA since 17-18 season.
I’m not saying Livers can’t get there, and I hope he does. But I do think putting 25 good games together next year would really help make the case. Of course, there are no shocking going pro announcements anymore, and that’s mostly a good thing. But actually making it? NBA is pretty elite.
This is generally the wrong way to look at NBA Draft decisions. The majority of players drafted have a long way to go before being a rotation NBA player.
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Right, but it’s nonsense to say he’s more likely to develop into an NBA role player by coming back then spending some time in the G-league.
The argument for coming back is when you can improve your stock to make a big jump in your draft position. Livers has a very limited ceiling, nothing he can do will improve his stock significantly.
That’s not at all true
I’ve thought of Franz as a 2-year guy at Michigan since he came aboard. Moe would’ve been drafted after his sophomore year but knew he wanted to come back. Franz indicated he wanted to live the college experience and I’d be surprised if that were only a single year. Considering how much further along he is in his development than was Moe, I’ve been expecting 2 years and I hope that’s what we see. I agree, however, that if he continues to have a breakout finish, especially on the big stage of the NCAA Tournament, all bets are off.
The question with Livers is, what does he gain by returning for another year? Does he have that much more upside than what he’s already shown? I’d like to have him join Eli and Austin as next year’s senior class, but wouldn’t be surprised if he moves on.
You can’t significantly improve your draft stock unless you can show teams you have a higher ceiling/likelihood of reaching that ceiling than they thought.
We know what Livers ceiling is at this point, he can’t really improve on that. And his ceiling is limited enough that there’s really not much upside to him demonstrating he’s closer to reaching that ceiling than he is now. Either way he’s a second round pick at best.
And his ability to reach that ceiling will not be significantly impacted by playing in college or the G league next year.
On Franz, I seem to recall that when he signed, he spoke of a desire to spend a summer working with Sanderson and building strength and conditioning. That would be this coming summer (he didn’t even arrive on campus until just before school started last August), and it makes sense for the rigors of NBA play and the schedule. Mo was/is a big proponent of the S&C program at UM. That’s why I have always seen him as a two year player.
On Isaiah, what he might gain is the ability to work out for teams when totally healthy. He’s not a projected draft pick now, and since he won’t be 100% until after the season ends, he’s unlikely to get there as of the time he needs to announce he’s testing. That means he’s going to have to show out in workouts. I suspect he’ll almost surely test, but the question is how healthy he’ll be for the workout (or perhaps the combine), and how he will be viewed. Guys who are juniors and have a realistic shot to play in the league rarely increase their draft stock as seniors (because age starts to work against them). This, however, may be the exceptional situation.
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I don’t think any love of the college life will trump Wagner going pro if he thinks he will go round 1–which likely would require a big tourney run. Nor will working out with Sanderson–they have training gurus in the pros too. And, Mo had no chance to go in the first round after his sophomore year and wasn’t even guaranteed being drafted. I want Franz back next year.
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