Carton probably isn’t a one and done. If you look at the past few years of prospect rankings, they’ve done a pretty damn good job of pegging the NBA ready players - the top 8 on the 24/7 cmposite are 8 of the top 10 can mainly held mock picks (no Doncic, and Trae Young rose).
Part of this is because the scouting is pretty good, the other is that the NBA is somewhat agnostic about college production (Bamba wouldn’t be a lottery pick if they prized it).
The only mid-steps are Traevon Duvall (probably a second rounder) and Mitchell Robinson (who knows where he’d be getting drafted if he played anywhere last year).
In essence - guys outside the top 15 are rarely one and dones.
That said, we have lost one guy a year to transfer or an un-renewed fifth year every season going back to Colton Christian.
It wouldn’t shock me if Beilein didn’t are Carton/Wagner as an either/or.