Carton probably isn’t a one and done. If you look at the past few years of prospect rankings, they’ve done a pretty damn good job of pegging the NBA ready players - the top 8 on the 24/7 cmposite are 8 of the top 10 can mainly held mock picks (no Doncic, and Trae Young rose).
Part of this is because the scouting is pretty good, the other is that the NBA is somewhat agnostic about college production (Bamba wouldn’t be a lottery pick if they prized it).
The only mid-steps are Traevon Duvall (probably a second rounder) and Mitchell Robinson (who knows where he’d be getting drafted if he played anywhere last year).
In essence - guys outside the top 15 are rarely one and dones.
That said, we have lost one guy a year to transfer or an un-renewed fifth year every season going back to Colton Christian.
It wouldn’t shock me if Beilein didn’t are Carton/Wagner as an either/or.
I’m no expert but I imagine that Carton’s height is the primary thing keeping him out of the five-star group. In terms of explosiveness, he’s not up there with Zion Williamson (who is), but he’s up there.
Height, independent of reach, matters though. It matters in terms of vision, most passing angles (at his height he’s still going to loop some passes a 6’4” guard isn’t).
I think he’s a really exciting college prospect, but these rankings really evaluate pro potential and the thing keeping Carton from the top group is probably that he 6’1”. That’s not an insult, nor does it really matter in terms of his college potential.
I’m sure it didn’t hurt that Franz and all the Michigan coaches were together with Mo and his parents last night in Brooklyn. Come on Coach Beilein, use that last scholarship and get Franz in here for the fall.
He’s done with German secondary school, at least, that’s my understanding. Plus, he’ll turn 17 in August…so certainly young, but 2019 would mean he’d turn 18 right around the start of school. Not unheard of…my wife was 17 until the end of her fall semester in college
