Fwiw a rematch with Iowa would be another Q1 game, Northwestern would be Q2, and Illinois would be Q3.
Michigan is the favorite per Bart Torvik simulation
Updated with times and TV
So the listed times are Central time zone?
Correct, due to the games being played in Chicago which is on CDT.
Seems odd he would favor M over MSU given they won the previous two.
It’s based on his algorithm which still has Michigan #4 with MSU at #8 despite last night’s loss.
He must not factor in the Sparty hates Michigan component.
The old adage of its really hard to beat a team 3 times in one season.
I just pray CM is ready to go close to 100% on Friday.
I think Michigan wins this. Matthews comes back and Michigan has momentum.
Unfortunately for Michigan, that adage doesn’t have much merit. Jordan Sperber (who I highly recommend following, by the way) posted data from the last 10 seasons that shows the team who won the first two matchups, went on to win the third 72% of the time:
I’d be curious what those numbers would be when it comes to teams in the top half of their conference.
Great point!
Do they not have a printable version of this on bigten.org? When I try to do it it’s huge and won’t fit on one page.
Have seen a few projected brackets now with us in the 3 slot. Both with Duke and Kentucky. This tourney became more significant to try and move up to the 2 line, along with gain back some lost momentum. Not to mention try and nab a banner that was lost out on Saturday
I don’t understand the brackets with LSU as a 2 seed over us. The only thing they have going for them is a 9-2 Q1 record, but they have 3 Q2 losses to our zero, and a lower NET.
Without double checking, our Q1 is 8-5. So they have a much better Q1 win percentage. But I think the 3 Q2 losses they have should more than make up for the 1 less Q1 win we have.
I’ve seen that too. I honestly think Duke is Michigan’s worst potential matchup. Duke likes to switch 1-5 and while it makes a lot of defensive errors, their players’ elite length and athleticism make up for those mistakes. Offensively, they just spread it out and attack one-on-one or with ball screens – don’t really run any complicated sets… that makes them easy to gameplan for, but incredibly difficult to stop (assuming Zion returns).
That is a quick turnaround from Friday night to Saturday afternoon, especially considering the second evening session game almost always starts way later than “scheduled” (25 minutes after the first concludes). OTOH, if you play well then getting right back on the court is probably what you want most, so it’s likely moot.