I’m going to go ahead and venture a guess that setting the floor for Nunez by comparing him to the No. 4 3-point shooter (makes) in program history is probably a bad idea.
Nunez has a nice stroke, but there’s going to be a lot of work for him to adjust to the high-major game IMO.
Do you think a freshman Zak Irvin role for Nunez is probably his ceiling for next season?
Ha yeah sorry, I meant percentage-wise. Does he already profile as a 40% shooter who can even get into the low to mid 40s?
Truthfully he seems like a house money recruit to me. Even if he never develops into a starter down the road or plays a TON of minutes. Having someone who can come off the bench and snipe for four years is a great weapon.
From what I’ve seen, Zak Irvin could do a lot more in high school than Nunez could.
I guess it depends how the roster shakes out, but I’d focus on getting guys like Iggy and Johns on the court for as many minutes as possible because they are more complete players.
If you are trying to get to your 7-8:
Simpson, Matthews, Poole, Livers, Teske, Castleton/Davis seem like good bets among the returning players and I don’t see how Johns/Brazdeikis don’t factor into that.
That’s already 8 and I think you have one more guard, preferably who can play some two, which is presumably either Brooks or DeJulius (or a grad transfer).
Basically it gets hard to find a role for Nunez on next year’s team just with how things will shake out. Because of that blob at the combo forward spot, I could see Matthews as a two getting a real look. Not sure if it’ll work, but it just makes sense.
This is how I see it shaking out. I think it’ll be hard to keep Johns and Iggy off the floor. There’s a role for one more guard whoever that ends up being but as you said it makes the most sense if it’s a guy who can play the 1 and possibly the 2. Being able to play the 2 (Dejulius or Brooks) becomes less necessary if Matthews plays some at the 2. I think this is a real possibility and gives us our best lineup possibilities with subs in the game.
I agree with everyone who says it will be hard for Nunez to find time. We’re gonna have 5 wings that all need time next year and people will have to play a little out of position to make that happen.
I think out of these 5 scenarios, we’re going to need two to become real things in order to maximize lineup potential with our best talent on the floor. None will have to happen for entire games, but if these parts can slide to multiple spots for 10 minutes at any time suddenly there’s a lot more flexibility.
Poole can play the 1
Matthews can play the 2
Iggy can play the 2
Johns can play the 5
Livers can play the 5
My bet would be Matthews at the 2 and Livers at the 5 actually happen quite a bit next year.
Z (30) DeJulius/Brooks (10)
Poole (30) Matthews (10)
Matthews (20) Iggy (20)
Livers (10) Iggy (10) Johns (20)
Teske (20) Livers (10) Castleton/Davis (10)
9 man rotation.
Z, Poole, Matthews, Iggy each get 30.
Teske, Livers, Johns get 20.
Backup PG and backup C get 10.
One note about all of this. Though Coach historically set his rotations to 7 or 8 guys, last year 9 guys played 10 minutes or more per game, with Simmons playing 8 per game. With more talent we may see a larger, more active bench.
Some how, all these fan projections for minutes and positions to be played never seem to work out. In the end, Beilein does his own thing and it seems to work.
I’d say this last team had a 9 man rotation. Simmons or Brooks was in it at any given time, but rarely both. The minutes work out funky because of that stretch where Brooks started and then a handful of DNPs.
In short, Nunez’s ceiling on next season is no better than what Ibi’s had he returned, unless Nunez shoots like Stephen Curry.
It wasn’t for long stretches but this is as deep as I can recall JB going to his bench late in the season. Whether that was getting Ibi a few minutes or Brooks some spot time I can’t recall games before this year where we went ten deep into the tournament. The bulk of the minutes still went to the top 7 or 8 guys though.
Is your projection of Iggy/Johns > Livers more a result of how good the frosh are, or how limited Livers was? Because it seems kind of ‘un-Dylan’ to not give the edge to the guy who will already have 2 college summers and 1 college season to learn JB’s intricate system.
I guess an early over/under question would be: how many games into the season before Livers is supplanted as the starter (or majority of minutes at the 4 played) by one of Johns/Livers?
Because it seems like Iggy and Johns have higher ceilings on offense, but they also have a lot of ground to make up in terms of college/JB experience.
Not to mention they’re total question marks on defense. Johns in particular has the physical tools, but Jordan Poole also had physical tools to play good D last season. Those tools don’t always translate into smart defense.
I’m not saying that Iggy and Johns are automatically going to play over Livers. Just that I’m having a hard time evaluating Livers off of this season and find it interesting that a lot of people are very high on him.
I also wouldn’t worry about who starts given the fact that Livers was actually the starter down the stretch this year even though Duncan would often play 20 minutes in the 2nd half.
The experience question is always hard to evaluate until guys show up and play.
I’ve been thinking along the same lines regarding starter’s. It seems JB likes to have the 6th man as a green light scoring option, maybe that’s obvious. But he uses the 6th guy as a mismatch early in games. Freshman always seem to struggle in the first 2-3 months but usually break through by mid February. With that said, Liver’s has experience and will start but may not be the best option going into the tournament.
Any previous 18 targets worth circling back to at this point?
Livers is a dude. The dude can play defense. Against MSU alone, he matched up and did well against JJJ, Bridges, and even Winston. Impressive.
Michigan’s season took off when he went into the starting lineup. He can shoot, very athletic, doesn’t turn the ball over, been in the system a year. I ask why anyone would doubt he’s going to be good. He clearly will be.
Again I’m not saying that Livers can’t be good. I’m just curious how things work out when bringing two more aggressive and dynamic offensive players into the mix who could play the same position.
What does the next stage of Livers’ offensive progression look like? Hard to say because his role was so limited this year.
I absolutely agree with you JJ3!
I don’t claim to have the answers. I do believe Livers is not in danger of losing his starting spot to Johns or Brazdeikis in 2018. This will be fun to watch evolve. Not going to be enough minutes to please everyone. I think one of DeJulius or Brooks will get rotation minutes at the 2 next season.