To me ceiling means as high as possible. I don’t think any of us saw Walton getting to the level he did even while he was doing it.
I don’t think Torvik attempts to quantify individual defense, so what you’re seeing is that Walton was the third best offensive player.
Pretty much every award and all-american thing in basketball is based off of offense 99%.
I’m just clarifying what Torvik’s stat says.
For what it’s worth, BPM and Win Shares DO attempt to quantify defensive impact, and say Walton turned in the second best single season in the Beilein era behind Trey Burke NPOY year (Stauskas’ BTPOY is third).
If not Poole, then who? He’s the only SG on campus right now and he earned a lot more PT as the season went on. This team is starved for scoring and shooting and he had the Stauskas/Irvin freshman year where he was a gunner and then next year he can take on more responsibilities.
That’s a great point!
We might see Poole play the 2 on offense and have Charles gurad the 2 on D. JP is going to be great but he has to man up.
I think replacing MAAR is our biggest question mark. I certainly think it’s Poole’s job to lose, I’m just saying that he’s got to be much better defensively for us or he will lose playing time. As for if not him then who, I think this roster might provide the most flexibility JB has ever had and I could see things shaking out a ton of different ways.
For example, let’s assume Poole is ready to make that jump defensively then we probably see him at the 2 and some sort of combination of Brooks, Dejulius or Nunez backing him up. Or same situation but Poole is struggling defensively then perhaps one of those three picks up a lot more minutes IF they’re ready.
If none of those guards are ready to play, I think there’s some flexibility with other guys in the lineup. As Chazer mentioned, there’s no reason Matthews can’t guard the 2 (they actually put him on DiVincenco late in the game if I remember correctly). I don’t think Matthews is the ball handling 2 guard that Beilein would typically use, but I think JB could certainly make a lineup of say Simpson, Matthews, Iggy, Livers, Teske work. In fact that group might provide us with the best combination of offense and defense that we can put on the floor.
To be clear I’m not saying Poole can’t take that jump defensively, but I thought his struggles defensively stood out this year and were the reason he didn’t play 20 minutes a game.
So… Nunez is the sleeper of the class; late bloomer etc etc. if Nunez is in the rotation I have trouble envisioning it at the 2. I see more of a Irvin freshman year role or no role at all. Easy break in freshman year with limited responsibility on offense.
Having said that, I see the 1& 2 primarily manned by some combination of Simpson, Poole, Watson, Brooks, DeJulius. If Watson can’t play 2 I’m not sure where minutes would come.
He didn’t play 20 minutes a game because he was backing up MAAR and Matthews. Poole’s defense was not great, but Beilein mentioned it improved a lot over the course of the year. I think it’s easily the most likely outcome.
A Matthews at SG lineup is possible, but I have my doubts. It would probably have to be in a small ball lineup so we could get enough spacing. Most likely Matthews would really have to improve his ball handling and shooting. To me, Poole getting better at D is just as likely if not moreso than Matthews getting the handle to play SG.
We are going to be in dire need of accurate 3 point shooting which is why I think Poole will play a lot even with marginal gains on D.
I certainly think it’s likely Poole takes a lot of those minutes, but I can see a scenario where he doesn’t is all I was saying. As for 20 minutes, yes, he was backing up MAAR and Matthews but as much as we struggled offensively, Poole would have easily gotten more minutes if he was more capable defensively. I don’t think JB would have hesitated to play MAAR more at the point so that Poole could have been on the floor more. So while his minutes would have come at the 2 and 3 there was flexibility to get Poole playing time over say Simmons/Brooks.
I really can’t a see scenario where Poole doesn’t take those minutes. Injury, I guess.
I agree that he struggled at times to defend.
On the other hand, he actually got his hands on a lot of balls, blocked some shots, and did some other things defensively that were solid. I think it’s more a question of strength, as opposed to ability.
Either way, I think MAAR’s emergence down the stretch was the biggest reason Poole didn’t play more. I’m confident he sees 30 minutes a game next year, and I’d be surprised if he’s not one of our top two scorers.
With the wings we have coming in and another off-season to prepare I totally see CM sliding down to the 2 on offense very frequently. CM today is not the player that CM will be when we tip off.
I’m sure he’ll improve his handle and shot, which will help. But I think Poole will improve just as much, and from a handle and shot perspective, he’s already ahead of Matthews. My minutes distribution would be as follows:
PG: Simpson (30), DDJ/Brooks (10)(not sure who wins the backup job)
SG: Poole (30), Matthews (10)
SF: Matthews (20), Iggy (20)
PF: Livers (25), Johns (15)
C: Teske (20), Castleton (15), Johns (5).
Yes, I’m projecting that Castleton beats out Davis, and we play some small ball with Johns as a 5 (I put him there because I think he has two inches on Livers).
To be clear, I think JP will be the 2 but CM will slide down at times. Something along the lines of your SG/SF breakdown seems logical with DD or Eli getting some limited run at the 2.
I expect Poole to make a major leap next year in both offense and defense. Some may forget how MAAR looked his frosh/Soph years (needed a lot of work). JB has someone to develop who already has better skills than MAAR and Matthews and I feel will be a better distributor than both will ever be. To me he is a camp Sanderson and tightened defense away from playing MAAR minutes and doing it better. If the freshman come ready to play/contribute look for Mich to be in the mix again next year.
I can see that.
Really, we’ll have a ton of depth which will allow us to play whoever has stepped up and played the best. Aside from maybe Simpson, no one’s job will be safe if they do not play well.
I like Johns as a small ball 5 more than Livers too conceptually but would wager that Livers would sooner get that nod for a couple reasons: 1) Livers has already played there a bit; 2) Beileins offense is so complicated that having Johns learn two different positions might be tough
IMO, Nunez is shooting wing who will be capable of guarding multiple positions. His ball handling is not his strong suit at this point and he is relatively weak in that regard compared to almost everyone on the team outside of our centers. Not a ballhandler.
His playing time will hinge upon whether he can be an elite shooter. His shot looks awesome so…