I’d rather take Bamba than Cain if it ends up being a one or the other thing.
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No one in the world would take Cain over bamba.
5’s as in “Centers”. Just another name for them.
Edit: wrong thread, I’ll keep it here since BleedBlue hit the nail on the head with his response.
Not to be “that guy” but I’m feeling another Jaylen Brown here. Recruitment starts out very suddenly and keeps picking up steam to raise our confidence before throwing it back in our faces when he picks Duke. I just can’t be optimistic with recruiting anymore 
“I found that if you have a goal, that you might not reach it. But if you don’t have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya, it feels phenomenal!” - Peter La Fleur
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I think you absolutely take Cain if he’s willing to come and be willing to oversign by 1 for Bamba with an expectation of attrition somewhere.
This is John Beilein we are talking about
I don’t necessarily think JB would run someone off in the Nick Saban sense, but I do think he would be bluntly honest with a player after the season about his role in the program going forward. I feel like he’s probably done that with a few players over the past 4-5 years.
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Even when he was “oversigned” by one last year, JB maintained he had a “plan,” which presumably meant someone taking a prep year. Also, there are not a ton of likely transfer candidates or early entry candidates next year. For example, it wouldn’t make sense for Wilson to leave as he’ll only get one year to play somewhere else anyway. Might as well stay at UM and get the Michigan degree and then leave as a grad transfer. Stuff happens, but I don’t think JB is just going to start assuming attrition. And this is not even taking into account that they might want to keep Donnal for a fifth year.
As for Cain, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens. If Michigan is not going to take him, he might want to wait until spring unless he really likes his other finalists. Not just to wait for Michigan, but I could see him being a really hot commodity in the spring, with all kinds of options. But it doesn’t sound like that’s his plan right now, and I can understand that too.
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Taking a 4th player in this class already means you’re eliminating the 5th year option from Donnal (I’m not saying that as a bad thing, just as a point of fact that you’d have fewer options for attrition)
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Taking a 5th player in this class means “unexpected attrition” … the 2 most logical options for that would be Wagner (offer he can’t refuse in Europe) or Watson (if he feels like he’s being recruited over and not give a legit chance).
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Reading scouting reports (granted not my own in-person opinions), I’m not sure Cain is much improved than the wing options Michigan appears to be recruiting in the Class of '18. Not a knock on Cain at all, but since UM will be deep on the perimeter in '17-18 doesn’t it make more sense to chase the slim chance at a game-breaker 5* this year and fall back on the '18 recruiting options?
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Not really, because the chances are very slim for 17 as you readily concede. With respect to 18, the only guys that are serious options to commit any time soon are guys without offers.
I know a lot of well connected people who never once believed Brown was a real possibility. And certainly academics were not a big factor for him. I’m not saying we have a great shot with Bamba - I have no idea either way - but it feels like a different type of recruitment, and that bodes well for us.
Brown didn’t stick around long, but I watched his draft declaration press conference and he is a very smart kid who will end up getting his degree from Cal. Academics were certainly a factor for him, just not in the traditional student mold.
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I have said before that I would take Cain. One reason is that after next season we will need someone to step in to help with outside shooting besides Watson. Cain would be able to step right in as a sophomore with experience in the system and not have to rely on freshman. Now I have only seen tape of Cain and the 18 wings that have been offered and only Hunter has more athletic ability and the other two wings may have more play making skills. But I like Cain who is long and I think will rebound better and be stronger than two at that point. Plus I always root for the home grown which I think is important when the supers eventually come along.
I absolutely want Cain still.
Robinson, Poole, Livers, and Watson will all be on the team, as will Simpson and Brooks, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matthews’s shooting improve tremendously from what it was at KY. I don’t think outside shooting will be a huge issue, nor is Cain a knockdown shooter.
I have been a fan of Cain, but when you consider that Matthews, Poole, Livers, and Watson are all in his class or the class before him and that we’re in good shape with guys in '18 (and that we have a good track record of getting guards/wings in or around Cain’s range as a prospect), taking him is not a positional necessity. If you take him, it’s because you really like him, especially with some other big-time prospects showing interest and the possibility of Donnal’s fifth year.
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What guys from 18 are we in good shape with at that position? Also, would you consider Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers, or Xavier Simpson knockdown shooters?
Livers I would, but obviously he’s limited to shots created for him by others much more than Cain would be. I still think Poole is a much better shooter than his numbers say and are more of a result of him needing to chuck up shots on a bad team and I think he’ll have much better shooting percentages now that he’s on a ridiculously stacked HS team.
Either way, I don’t think any of the '18 recruits are a significant enough step above Cain (I personally think Cain’s about the same as most of them and is flat out better than several) to warrant shutting him out, especially when he’d have a year of college experience while they’d be freshmen.
I am a bird in hand type of guy when the talent is similar and someone wants to come vs hoping. A lot can change over the next year.
Matt, not sure if you can share but who might those 18 recruits be that do not have an offer? My guess would be Cohill is one, if so hope he gets the offer cause you can never have too many guards.