2017-18 Bracketology


I am a maize and blue blooded lifetime, and that’s a LONG time, Michigan fan and I’m telling you, Michigan State is SO much better than number 11 in the country! And you’re right, MSU fans, my kids and my wife will be pissed! Well, my son won’t be pissed. He got his PhD at State, but I raised him right, he’s really a Michigan fan, always has been, always will be! Oh, he also taught at Ohio State, and he HATES the Buckeyes!


Michigan State is better than 11th in the country, but it doesn’t have a resume better than 11th in the country.


At the risk of starting another CRAZY debate,Touche’! I know what the resume says. I also know what reality says, they are one of the best teams in the country. I’ll tell you my money in that 2 vs.3 game wouldn’t be on Cincinnati! .


Sure, but they have only beaten two teams projected in the NCAA tourney. If they win the Big Ten Tournament I think they’ll rocket up the s-curve though.

Right now the resume is just kind of ugly. They have a great win vs UNC on a neutral floor, beat Purdue at home and won at Maryland. That game at Maryland is their best win on the road and they close with three meh opponents on the road.

It is just like Nebraska… Huskers are playing as well as a team that should make the tourney, but they don’t play a team that will be in the tourney over the last 9 games of conference play. A lot of hollow wins and hollow schedules floating around the Big Ten.


I fail to see why everyone thinks top 10 teams like Cincinnati and Auburn have a better resume than MSU.

Cincinnati has beaten literally 0 ranked teams and Houston and UCLA are it’s only tournament-bound wins so far.

Auburn’s only ranked win is Tennessee then they have a handful of wins against 17-8 SEC bubble teams.

Michigan State’s resume is obviously weaker than normal. But I would argue college basketball overall is having a pretty down year. Virginia and Villanova have separated themselves. I’d put Purdue, Xavier, MSU right below them.


Here are the resumes of the teams that you mentioned, FWIW.






One thing to note about UC is that they have 3 tier 1 games left on regular season schedule: Wichita twice and at Houston.


MSU seems to play a lot to the level of its competition (while usually going on to win). They barely scraped by IU and Iowa before Purdue. We’ve heard their hype all year and certainly, they’re talented, but whether they’re better or worse than anyone else in the top 10, I honestly have no idea.

Looking at Kenpom, MSU has the highest “luck” factor of any top 10 team and the third-best in the top 40.


I really do appreciate everything you do here, Dylan. This is an outstanding piece. Thank you. I DO think that the Spartans have everything it takes to make deep run. I really don’t want that to happen, but…I think they’re pretty good with just oodles of talent. I like Purdue, too. Depth is a problem, but they have a chance to get to the final four, just like I think State does. I also believe, as long as they finish strong, that Nebraska, despite resume, belongs in the tournament.


MSU is a top 5 team when they play well, but they have a few flaws that can be exploited. They have average guard play and turn the ball over too much.


Lunardi slides Michigan up to a 6.


That is about where I would put us at this point. It is going to be hard to keep that spot with the remaining games.


Seems like the consensus among guys who are generally a lot better than Lunardi is that we are around the 8-9 lines.


The B1G is never easy, but there’s no reason we have to lose a single remaining game. If I’m Beilein I’m telling these kids that.


He probably will. But the reality is that they will probably go 2-2 or 1-3 for their last 4. 4-0 just isn’t going to happen, no matter how much he juices them up.


Let’s see what happens. I feel that, as observed yesterday, a great deal depends on Robinson. When he’s stretching the floor the whole team’s motion–and room for creative maneuver–is greater. Beilein added a few new wrinkles yesterday, too; this team is a bit of a Swiss Army knife–learning how to use it has been a season-long undertaking. I was encouraged by Teske, Moe, Poole, and Simmons yesterday. With those guys increasingly integrated, we can beat anyone. The odds are, as you say, against winning out. But I had been a little down about this team’s ceiling–yesterday it was shown to be higher, in my view.


If Robinson breaks out of his slump, it’s a big deal and can up this team a level, maybe to a point where we can be about as good as OSU? I’m skeptical but we’ll see.



This is a good way to visualize that data from Bart Torvik’s site


Depends on which half you watched.