Where Are They Now? Evaluation Revisited

I thought Derryck Thornton would have been an instant impact PG of the future if we had gotten him. Instead, he had a very mediocre year at Duke surrounded by top talent and transferred. I definitely missed on him.

Without a real source, these are just imaginary facts coming from a guy who has obvious confirmation bias regarding anything to do with Michigan basketball.

We offered Booker way before UK did. Same with Kennard and Thornton - offered them way before Duke did. We showed plenty of early interest in Jamal Murray. He liked Syracuse and MSU, too, and then ultimately narrowed it down to Oregon and UK (which is like a football recruit narrowing things down to Ole Miss and Bama). Did Izzo and Boeheim get lazy, too?

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I damn near guaranteed he would be instant impact.

You do realize I can pull the post up on this very board or are you really that dense? Do you really want me to quote what Thorton’s dad said about Beilein? Kennard and Booker never prioritized UM like Murray did at the expense of other schools. Oregon got in on Murray the same time as UK and Syracuse never got a visit.

I promise you that you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

I guess one could argue that he technically was instant impact as he played 25+ minutes per game, but I don’t think he came very close to the lofty expectations set for him. However, I think there’s a good chance he ends up as a very good PG by his RS Sophomore year.

Definitely curious to see his development

You’re not going to convince me, and I’m not going to convince you. I accept that. Let me know when either you or MattD accomplish something real in the world of basketball coaching. I find it really difficult to believe John Beilein could win 600 career games, take a team to the title game, take two other teams to the Elite Eight, and put multiple guys in the NBA (with a recent national player of the year) if he was even 1/10 as stupid as you make him out to be. I guarantee just about every Division I college coach - including John Beilein - has played basketball at a much higher level than you guys, and knows a TON more about the game than you guys, and yet they all get it wrong once in awhile.

Guys, let me break it down for you - no matter how much complaining you do about our program, Warde Manuel is never going to hire you. That being said, I don’t understand why every comment you make is so negative. We beat a pretty decent team last night by 30. You can’t even enjoy that for one day?

I don’t think JB is above criticism. I don’t think he’s perfect. I think he has made some recruiting mistakes over the past few years. And I think most fans would agree with that. Where I depart from you is the obvious implication in the vast majority of your posts that he’s stupid, and you and MattD are obviously smarter. Not from where I sit.

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Seriously, why bring my name into this in an insulting manner?

I’ve gone out of my way to be courteous and respectful toward you, and we’ve had some pretty good dialogue recently.

Just no need for that

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I don’t care to be a college coach so your post is misguided and borderline strange. I can sense you fuming at the keyboard however and its making me chuckle because you can’t dispute facts so you resort to your typical ad hominem and listing Beilein’s resume which is a different discussion totally. JB is this infallible basketball genius who missed and misevaluated on the majority of the 2014 and 2015 classes :wink:

I feel like most of JB’s recruiting blunders are an inability to recruit “normally” as opposed to misevaluating. I feel like he often just offers one guy, maybe two at a position and then only recruits those guys without keeping options open until those recruitments are over and often it’s too late to expand your reach then… just what comes with being an old fashioned unenergetic guy.

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This is probably my biggest criticism of JB’s recruiting. He casts such a small net that if the initial offerees extend their recruitment until senior year and go elsewhere, we’re left scrambling.

On the other hand, JB doesn’t seem to contact recruits as frequently as other coaches, so it’s possible that would be even more magnified if he had a bunch of offers outstanding.

I, too, mentioned the timing of these types of conversations happening on several threads here. It’s almost like folks saw the 30 point win last night then rolled up their sleeves and packed their lunch pails for a full day’s work on the forum today.

…and this is why I should stay off of this thread. It lends itself to a parade of folks patting themselves on the back. Considering the number of prospects who commit elsewhere and factoring in any Michigan commits who are underperforming, there is no shortage of material.

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And my criticism of the 2014 cycle, is not a disapproval of Beilein as a coach or evaluator. It simply shows his worst habits as a recruiter :

reaches early on kids (doyle) he still does this
lack of presence instate much better here
doesn’t build a real relationship with kids nor keep up contact still does this
misevaluating essential skillsets of 4s and centers getting better here
over-prioritizes shooting still does this but starting to adjust
waiting out recruitments while ignoring similar talents getting better here

When I criticize, it is with the hopes that JB adjusts, learns and grows. He is a genius but he can improve. He got on his feet with Mo and X (imo). 2017 shows improvement and the late spring + 2018 are great opportunities to not repeat past mistakes.

Nope, the 2014 class + DR were polarizing at the time. Most people like the 2017 class, Mo and a prospect or two in 2016 so no one is going to harp if it doesn’t pan out unlike 2014 + DR where many saw it differently from the start.

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Some thoughts

As we’ve seen, and many have come to admit, winning masks flaws. The root of the issues are still present. A win is a win, and it doesn’t address the root of the overarching issues with this team. The team is still subject to critique regardless of the result of a single game. To think that a 4-4, non-ranked, bubble team, is above critique, is in a word, insane. That’s where homerism comes into play, when folks are complaining about the timing of the critique rather than the merits/legitimacy.

Truth be told, certain people cannot stand if either myself or Guestavo are correct on particular Evals because it indicates the team isn’t in a good spot, or could be in a much better spot.

Do you think anyone here complains about the fact that we consistently said Stauskas was a great prospect, over and over again? Hell no. And why is that? Because it means the team, and to a large degree, John Beilein, are being portrayed in a positive manner.

Anything else is just semantics and deep down you know it.

The End

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As it relates to recruiting and in-state talent. JB needs to learn how to appropriately kiss some ass and stop the I not going to deal with anyone other than parents. That does not mean he has to do anything underhanded. AAU coaches and others are trusted by kids. Not to mention the single parent student athlete with no male presence in the home.

I also think he needs to rethink the no offers unless they go through what’s been called full visit? Have them send transcripts if good offer and try to get them on campus as much as possible. Needs to take a cue from Harbaugh. Not sure if JB would have recruited a Jalen Rose back in the day.

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Sorry, you’re right. I apologize.

It is exactly this ^

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No, I just think that you’ve never been in his position (or the position of other coaches - the reason why I’ve posted at length about how many successful coaches have had glaring misses, because what they do is hard), you have very little idea how difficult it is, and your Monday-morning quarterbacking comes off very arrogantly at times.

And in terms of individual talent evaluation, it’s not fantasy football. Maybe a guy is really talented, but a complete d$ck. Maybe a guy has weed problem. Maybe a guy has handlers and family that are going to be a huge pain in your as* during his stint there. Maybe a guy doesn’t have the grades. Maybe a guy visited your campus, played with your team in a pickup game, and the team hates him. Maybe you are reasonably certain the kid is receiving illegal benefits from an AAU coach, or an “advisor,” or someone else.

I think you have very little of the information that goes into the decision calculus of who to offer, and why, but you act as if you know it all, and the actual coach of the program is an idiot.

I agree with some coaches, their track record isn’t great and they deserve intense scrutiny. On the whole, I think JB is a very good talent evaluator and coach who has had some recent misses.

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No, that’s how Amaker recruited.