That’s a lot of minutes for a post player in college; more so in Michigan’s system. Keep in mind McGary only played 25mins or more in 10 of the final 18 games his freshman season (starting the count from his Feb 2 “breakout game” at Indiana).
And in-conference last year Donnal was serviceable — 10.5ppg, 5rpg, 1block/1turnover per gm, 57.5% FG, 34% 3Pt. Median conference scoring was 8pts and only had 4 conference games with fewer than 7pts. That’s not “strength of the team” production, but it’s also far from “black hole” inefficiency … basically serviceable production for a perimeter based offense.
Point being, UM isn’t stuck with Wagner or bust at the position, so I think Mo Wagner would being doing real well if he can force his way in to around 20mpg.
Wilson has to play. The roster situation at the 4 is like PG last year: Dakich played a little even though it was obvious he shouldn’t because there were no alternatives. How much Wilson can play is an open question, but we don’t have any choice but to put him out there some.
Irvin and Robinson are in a tough spot. The dynamic that forced Walton to play the second-most minutes in the B1G last year—lack of bench options—now shifts to them. People have talked about how Walton will be able to give 32 great minutes now instead of 37 good ones, but the opposite is true with Irvin and Robinson—especially with U-M demanding more from its players defensively.
The defensive focus is a welcome change, don’t get me wrong. It just seems like we’re trying to squeeze blood from a turnip with Irvin and Robinson. I mean, we’re counting on them to improve their offensive efficiency and pick it up defensively while playing more minutes than last year—when they were already overtaxed.
Well, I disagree. I think we do have other choices, and there are also other possibilities that may present themselves, depending on how players develop. If Wagner develops, he could take the majority of minutes at the 5, and Donnal could play some at the 5 (maybe with a little Teske thrown in) and also share minutes at the 4 with Irvin (allowing the coaches to give Irvin at least some time at the 3, where he really belongs).
I’m sure Wilson will get SOME playing time, but given that he showed basically nothing in his second year, I don’t consider getting a significant contribution from him to be very likely. If somehow he managed to step up, that would solve a lot of problems for us, but I wouldn’t count on it.
I’m curious where this idea that Mark Donnal could ever play the four comes from. What has he really shown to make people think that’s a possibility? He can’t really handle the ball or do much on the perimeter.
Maybe you could sell me on Wagner in a pinch, but just not sure where that idea is coming from with Mark.
While Dylan’s analysis is incomplete, I do agree with the result he reaches.
4 Basic components to a PF at UM:
A) - any ball skills
B) shooting ability
C) rebounding
D) defend post
If a given player cannot do at least 2 of those things, he’s probably not an ideal candidate at the PF spot. That said, Donnal can only do 1 of the aforementioned requirements, so he’s not an ideal candidate there. Wagner can only do 1 as well based on what we know from last year, perhaps he can elevate his game and become that down the line, but for now, he has ball skills and not much else.
The 4 spot has been such a problem for us in recent years because we have obtained players with decent shooting ability, but not much else. We need them to be able to at least do 1 of defend the paint and/or rebound.
I am going to quibble and say that both Donnal and Mo can defend the post. They are not great defenders but at least have the metrics to defend a Swanigan to some extent and would argue better than a ZI. I think Mo could certainly stay in front of quicker players a bit better than Donnal too. All that to say, no they are not good defenders but they are no worse guarding the 4 than the 5 right?
Guarding the four is more often than not guarding a perimeter player with some strength. OG Anunoby, Jae’Sean Tate, etc. I’m not going to go through every Big Ten roster, but there are more of those kind of guys than Caleb Swanigans. This is emphasized by the fact that UM switches so many screens 1-4 because it’s really a perimeter spot.
I think Moe probably has the trajectory to be able to do that at some point, but I wouldn’t really be comfortable with either of them out there.
Yeah, seeing Mark Donnal running around the perimeter off of screens on one end and trying to defend combo forwards on the other end, while probably hilarious, would not be in our best interest.
Donnal is too slow footed to recover playing the 4 and would be a disaster. He is a straight 5 with us and hopefully he has continued to gain strength which I think is his biggest weakness. With Wilson, he needs to became an energy guy. Does not seem to be in his nature but he needs to get grimey play defense and rebound or he will not be useful because I doubt they run plays for him.
Well, we frankly don’t have any “ideal” candidates to play power forward, and even if we did, Beilein wouldn’t play them at the same time as a 5 anyway. None of the guys we’ve played recently at what we call a “4” have been true power forwards-they’ve all been small forwards (Novack, Robinson, Chatman, Irvin). That’s just what Beilein does with his lineup, and I expect him to continue if at all possible. Don’t expect any sightings of a power forward that meets your criteria in a Michigan uniform this season.
I agree that those guys you named would be a nightmare for both Donnal and Mo to defend but with all due respect I wouldn’t really call those players “post players.” That was Matt’s term in defending the post. If we are strictly being reactive in our gameplanning (I know that it isn’t this way) I would defend the “post” players with Mo and the types of guys that you mentioned with ZI
Ideally you want someone at the 4 spot that has enough strength and motor to deal with a legit back to the basket post player like Robert Carter (Maryland) while also having the lateral agility to deal with a mid post type 4 such as J’Sean Tate or Miles Bridges. You want this and a player with ball skills to exploit mismatches on offense.
Livers is a great fit at the four for what UM wants to do. Versatile enough defensively and can stretch the floor.
As for this year (the upcoming season as the thread is about), the options are Irvin, Robinson and Wilson – or sliding someone down from the five – to play those minutes. Wilson is going to get every chance to prove that he can play ~10 mins per game at that spot.
I’m not sure how much I buy the talk of Robinson playing the four but it makes sense given the roster construction and looking forward… I’m just not that confident in it succeeding.
I get that people just want to groan about wanting a traditional post player, but I also fail to see how that makes much sense given this roster because I’m not sure you can make an argument for anyone other than maybe Wagner to slide over, but I think he creates better mismatches at the five.
At the end of the day, I think Irvin is playing at least 30 at the four every night this year, so we’re debating 5-8 minutes per game probably.
I don’t think any of us care about a traditional post player on offense, but we do want a 4 that can rebound on D and provide a huge upgrade in terms of motor and position defense.
So while Livers is a great fit on offense, he’s certainly not w great rebounder or position defender with high motor.
I love the livers commit as he should start at pf for multiple years and I’m good with that. We need toughness and athleticism and I think Wagner has both. he brings an attitude and swagger that no one on this team has. I’d start him and let everyone else fall into place. I can’t stand watching lackadaisical basketball where it looks like they’re just out there playing 50%. If Wagner can control his fouling issue, he should be out there 25 minutes a night. Donnal and dj don’t bring motor at all, and it’s tough watching those guys. I love dj and am hoping he can figure it out. Donnal has more to play for than almost anyone on the roster as he can earn another year, but from what I’ve seen, it’s very hard to imagine him changing. I hope he does along with dj, the first game of the year will tell a lot where they are mentally.
We made it to the NC game one year and the Elite 8 the next with GR III playing the “4” (actually a small forward), displaying none of the attributes you mention.
As much as we might wish for it, Beilein is not going to play a lineup with a true power forward AND a center. He just isn’t. His ideal lineup is a 1, two 2’s, a 3 and a 5, and he’s made that work. The problem isn’t not having a good power forward, it’s not having top-notch talent at the 2 (where his offense really needs it) and a starting-caliber 5 (which, due to a combination of injuries and sub-par recruiting we haven’t had the last two years, and may not this year).