Regardless of who starts, they are both likely going to get about 20mpg give or take.
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I feel like with Donnal, we pretty much know what weāre going to get. While itās certainly possible for him to make a big jump this year, I donāt expect it. Wagner is a bit of a wildcard. His ceiling is definitely higher than Donnalās, but his floor might be a bit lower.
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I think all Mo has to do is cut down on fouls (like, a lot, though) and work on his high ball-screen defense (though not an especially easy thing to teach), and his floor will match Donnalās floor.
I think Mo will be better at the best thing Mark brought, which was rolling and finishing, which is so dang important. But he was inconsistent. Then Moās quickness, motor, and touch around the rim leaves a significantly higher ceiling, as you said. But the kid has to stay on the floor and learn how to hedge.
Basically agreeing with everything you said, just teasing out the sentiment a bit.
Yes, I think weāve seen Donnal at fairly close to his ceiling. Wagner, as you say, is more of a wildcard, but if this team is going to move into the upper tier of the Big Ten next season, significant improvement from him is one of the few ways I can see that happening.
Donnal had 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 blocks on the road at #6 MD (3-4 3 pt shooting). Iād say weāve probably seen him very close to his ceiling on an individual game basis. He had another 26 point game on the road in B1G play. But we havenāt seem his ceiling on a season-wide basis.
Unfortunately, I donāt have a high degree of confidence that he will get there because Iām not sure heās got the right mental set. But neither would I be shocked to see him have a much more consistent season than last year.
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What Donnal brings to the table will be adequate. But if you are looking for more we better hope Wagner makes the jump. Donnalās best work is done in pick and pop. Picking and rolling to the basket against most of the big boys is an exercise in futility with Donnal. Defensively he also struggles because of strength/athleticism and rarely blocks shots. In saying this if Donnal is the starter for the season then the other four starters better be on their games.
Well, I really donāt think that Donnal is a natural center (though he did an OK job as a ā5ā last year), whereas Wagner is probably closer to that role. Donnal still seems more like that mythical creature, the Stretch 4, often rumored to exist, but with no confirmed sightings in a Michigan uniform.
What Iād love to see is Wagner playing well enough to be a 25-30 mpg guy at the 5, with Donnal out there some of the time as a 5 and some time as a stretch 4. I doubt that will happen though, even given our lack of wing talent. It just isnāt Beilienās way to play two bigs at once for any length of time. Maybe if Irvin or Robinson got hurt and Wagner and Donnal were both playing too well not to have them both out there, that would force his hand, but Iād rather not have another injury crisis just to test that out.
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I guess I agree with you in theory butā¦ I think based on his high school film everyone anticipated Donnal would be a pick and pop player. I donāt think we have really seen it in college yet. Maybe this year? Regarding his rolling to the basketāI really think he is not that bad at itāand honestly, at this point it has seemed to be his bread and butter. He is definitely a below the rim finisher but he finishes at a decent clip and I think is pretty reliable at catching the ball as he rolls.
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He does an adequate job but when it is against same size or bigger competition as I stated above its usually not pretty. Wagner is able to rise up above the better competition better. Donāt get me wrong Donnal is going to be important to this team this year with nothing but freshman behind him if he does not start.
How do we know Wagner is able to rise up against better competition?
I hope not. I really hope Wagner could play 25 -30 minute this year. Also I really think Wagner didnāt do much because he wasnāt given the chance/ time to work out some of his early season hiccups like say Mitch was.
By the end of the year, Wagner was outplaying donnal and rebounding at a pretty good rate. Donnal is not a good rebounder. Personally, Iād be pretty shocked to see donnal in the starting 5 opening night. Then again, Doyle started and even continued to into big ten play. So who really knows.
I donāt get the narrative of maar canāt shoot. He shot 36.5 last year. Thatās not good but itās also not terrible. I expect him to creep towards 38 this years maybe more
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Donnalās per 40 minute rebound rate was higher than Wagnerās last year. I hope Wagner is the answer at the 5 too but his rebounding rate is not the reason he will improve the position for us IMO
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Yes, as I mentioned above, the end of the year is when Wagner started playing really well. One would think he would continue is to improve and be our guy this year. Heās longer, more athletic and plays a more physical style of basketball. He played vs Indiana very well last year and followed that up by playing very well vs Tulsa. For this team to be more competitive, we need Wagner to be better than donnal and be on the court more.
I agree hundred percent. Plus when you drop it off to him, he finishes with a dunk.
Not sure where the notion that Wagner was outplaying Donnal by that much at the end of last year came from.
Here are the stats for the last four games (and before that, Wagner had 7 straight scoreless games, btw):
Indiana- Donnal: 20 mins, 12 pts, 4 rebs; Wagner: 16 mins, 9 pts, 2 rebs
Purdue- Donnal: 15 mins, 7 pts, 1 reb; Wagner: 9 mins, 3 pts, 2 rebs
Tulsa- Donnal: 13 mins, 2 pts, 2 rebs; Wagner: 22 mins, 4 pts, 8 rebs
Notre Dame- Donnal: 29 mins, 9 pts, 3 rebs; Wagner: 8 mins, 6 pts, 2 rebs (with 4 fouls in 8 minutes)
Totals: Donnal: 77 mins, 30 pts, 10 rebs; Wagner 55 mins, 22 pts, 14 rebs
Neither one was exactly lighting it up, and thereās not that big a difference for a small sample size. Does Wagner have breakout potential? Probably. But he wasnāt clearly better to the point where Iād project him as the most likely starter at this point.
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Heās a huge piece this season if we are going to be improved.
He shot 31% on threes in the Big Ten last year, which was the worst on the team, and not very good at all.
If donnal doesnāt start the first five games, and is healthy then Wagner will be all B1G in some way shape or form. JB starts returning starters. Wagner would have to blow donnal away bc donnal is a legit B1G center.
Pg Walton/x
SG MAAR/Walton
SF Robinson/Irvin
4 Irvin/(Wilson)
C donnal/Wagner
I hope Wilson really steps up this year, just havenāt seen much from him in past years. He and donnal might benefit from a more intense coach, if donlon is fiery and in their face enough it couldāve huge.
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