How does the “hot hand fallacy” account for the psychological conditions that may or may not effect the different degrees of concentration, focus and decision making, which may or may not effect a basketball shot? My guess is the PHD that wrote the paper didn’t play sports and forgot that players are not robots.
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I thought the most recent statistical analysis using SportsVU showed evidence of the hot hand?
Great article Reegs.
Zwiebel and Green argue that the original finding failed to account for a key issue. In basketball, the opposing team quickly adjusts to a “hot” player, devoting extra coverage and forcing that player to attempt more difficult shots. As a result, it’s inevitable that a hot player’s shooting percentage will decline. It’s not because the hot streak was an illusion, but rather that the hot player attracted more opposition.
crazy that there are things other than just raw numbers that come into play.
Even after they subjectively adjusted for shot difficulty,
Adjusting for the increased difficulty of the shots, the researchers
found that hot players were likely to continue outperforming. The
“hot-hand effect,” they estimated, raised their chances of making a shot
by 1.2% to 2.4%.
So a “hot” shooter makes 1 or 2 more shoots out of 100 than a “cold” shooter.
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You’re outsmarting yourself, Bear. All of those variables were in play BEFORE the opponent shifted to defend too–the “hot” player was open, getting open, having plays run for him, not being keyed on, etc. The problem with “hot hand” isn’t that players do not sometimes make a number of shots in a row then miss a number. It is those many variables that you yourself cite–including what he had for dinner and when it reaches his intestines–too dizzyingly complex to account for with a reductive, unitary concept like hot. (Where does confidence even begin to enter such analysis?)
Watching mAx it’s hard to wonder what we could have done with our seniors. A team with levert spike and Max would have been pretty same good. I know why we let max go and I agreed but had we kept him and no injuries this team would have been dangerous and deep. Imagine that roster with our draw. Obviously we would have been seeded higher but had we still got the draw we have they’d be going elite eight easy
Was nice to see him bag that three, but Indiana has a pretty big hole to dig out of, whether Harbaugh is wearing Indiana colors or not.
Dylan has article on front page with more of the Beilein interview with Matt Shepard. Pretty revealing what he admits about this rosters defensive shortcomings.
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Simpson and Teske seem like their best attributes are defensively. I wonder what Ibi will be like in that regard.
I hope Ibi embraces a 3 and D role. That would be huge in this system.
Not optimistic on that at all. Seemingly every clip I see he is getting abused on D. Think he’s a more fluid version of Aubrey, but my expectation level for Ibi isn’t very high to be honest.
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That’s really too bad. I don’t see Poole as a great defender either. After MAAR, we really need a bigger defender that can guard the wing.
Anyone think that if Robinson stays for the whole summer and beefs up around 20 lbs. (Not sure if that’s realistic or not) that he could be a solid defender at the 4? He has the height but is far too weak right now. If not next year, I could see it happening by his senior year.
Simple answer… no.
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You can’t put 20lbs on Robinson’s frame in one summer. That will cause so many issues for the kid.
5lbs is more realistic and even then you have to be careful in one off season. Remember, he’s going into his 4th year. He’s been developing his body for quite some time now.
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I’d much rather see him improve on his footwork and mentality.
I really wish we would get a 6’7" - 6’8" high motor, awful shooter, hard rebounding, strong defender to play the “Junk Yard Dog” role.
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I wish Duncan could cover the 4. He is 6 foot 8 210lbs and Zak is 6 foot 6 215lbs and Zak is stronger by a significant amount. I do not understand why he is so weak.
Zak seems to use leverage better–he gets lower. Robinson tries to use his length and it does not work around the basket. He gets pushed around like a rag doll.
I would hope that Chatman or Wilson could become the answer at the four. Wouldn’t it be nice if one of them was motivated enough to put in the needed work in the off season to make it happen?
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