Interesting bet. From a pure impact standpoint I’d be inclined to agree with you but Wilson will probably need to play a lot of minutes at the 5 (especially when Doyle gets in foul trouble) so JB may want to save him for that purpose. My guess is that Chatman initially starts when Irvin is out – but if he really struggles (entirely possible), he’ll get bumped for Wilson. I don’t see Robinson starting. Say hi to Guestavo.
Also interesting how the thinking on this forum (and others) has evolved since we saw that practice footage. People are a lot more open-minded now in speculating how JB will use his depth.
Interesting bet. From a pure impact standpoint I'd be inclined to agree with you but Wilson will probably need to play a lot of minutes at the 5 (especially when Doyle gets in foul trouble) so JB may want to save him for that purpose. My guess is that Chatman initially starts when Irvin is out -- but if he really struggles (entirely possible), he'll get bumped for Wilson. I don't see Robinson starting. Say hi to Guestavo.
Also interesting how the thinking on this forum (and others) has evolved since we saw that practice footage. People are a lot more open-minded now in speculating how JB will use his depth.
I just don’t see why Kam would be playing on the yellow team at practice if he was slotted to start in absence of Irvin. I figure you’d like your starters getting run together in live game situations.
The late guestavo and I just made a bet. I say that Wilson starts more games against mid-major+ competition at the 4 while Irvin is out than Kam and Duncan. Guestavo is betting on the latter.
I would favor your side of this action.
Speaking of bets, I’m waiting for MPBear to make reservations for my Porterhouse when I’m in Dallas this Xmas. Looks as though Eric Davis is showing out in practices. You out there Bear?
I’ll say it again…it is VERY unlikely that Beilein is going to play a lineup with two bigs for any significant amount of time. He has never done that in all his time here, and let’s face it, our talent at the bigs this year isn’t anything special…it just isn’t.
Walton and LeVert will start…pretty much everyone agrees on that. If you’re projecting other starters for this year (and for the sake of argument, let’s assume we’re talking about when Irvin is back healthy…things will probably be in flux until then), I’m not sure how you peg anyone but Dawkins and Irvin at the 3/4. They were playing better than anyone else at those positions at the end of last year, by a considerable margin. Chatman was clearly behind both of them, Robinson and Wagner haven’t played a minute of D1 ball, and Wilson barely more than that. Donnal was marginal at best, and only played because we had little else. Sure, things can always change, but if you’re making projections right now, proven performance on the court, against real D1 competition, outweighs any amount of coaching hype or practice buzz.
Irvin is not an ideal 4, you say? So what? Neither was Novak. Neither was GRIII. Neither was Chatman. Beilein doesn’t play ideal 4s. He does not play lineups with a center AND a true power forward. That’s not his style. He plays small ball, and favors the best 3 point shooters he can put out there.
Doyle and Wilson will take most of the minutes at the 5 once things get serious, and Wagner and Donnal will play very little. And rotating 10 players in every game is also very unlikely (and not a great thing, in any case). We’ll rotate two guys at the 5, Chatman will rotate with Dawkins and Irvin at the 3/4, and Spike will rotate with Walton and Irvin at the 1/2. If a ninth guy breaks into the rotation, it will probably be MAAR. I’d put Robinson at 10th on the depth chart, (and consider anything we get from him to be gravy), with Wagner and Donnal after that.
Mchem, I will not argue with the past trend of playing 1 big and four guards essentially. However, we can’t turn a blind eye to recruiting trends either. JB will have Donnal, Doyle, Wilson, Wagner, Davis and Teske on the team next year. I would argue that Chatman is getting pretty big too. did he grow? He seems about as Tall as Doyle…either way, that is 6 or 7 bigs if you count Kam for at least the next 2 years. Why would JB recruit these guys? I think the answer is that he sees Wilson,Wagner, and Kam as ideal 4’s and the past iterations of 4’s were somewhat undersized. The other alternative, of course, is that he has recruited 6 players to play one position…But I am not sure why he would do that. More evidence is the fact that Wilson and Chatman, at the practice, looked like they have been training to play the 4 for the last year. They looked very comfy out there playing 4.
wolverine3, you make a good point about potentiAl competition for Irvin’s. It is entirely possible that Irvin Could take a backseat role to Dawkins. Irvin and Dawkins both have holes in their game. If Dawkin’s can hold onto 48% from 3, then Irvin, even with his better ball handling, playmaking, and rebounding will have a hard time competing with that. If Dawkin’s can’t shoot above 40 percent after the first 12 games then his pt will be severely curtailed in my opinion.
Gtf, I don’t think Irvin will be better/more productive in all of those aspects this year. Irvin’s freshman year he was ONLY a shooter, much like Nik. Soph year they both take that step forward. Aubrey has the ability, athleticism to grow more then what Irvin did from Fr to Soph year, IMO. If he keeps his shooting consistency (which I think he will) sky is the limit for him. He’s just beginning his Soph year.
Good point Wolverine3, as I compare Irvin and Dawkin’s Freshman years their rebound rate and assist rates are similar–not very good from either of them. Irvin did much better his Sophmore year in both areas. But it is possible Dawkins has also improved a lot since last year… I will say I prefer the look of Dawkin’s shot much more and he seems to be the superior shooter…it will be interesting to see how competition at that spot unfolds…
So, was at the practice today. We got to see the last hour and 15 minutes of practice. A lot of the same drills as last night with about 6-8 minutes of scrimmage at the end. This was Irvin’s first day being a full participant in practice, and apparently the first time Spike was a full participant in two weeks.
No one really shot particularly well (besides Duncan of course), so no one particularly stood out as having a great practice, IMO. DJ Wilson looked confident shooting the 3 (although I didn’t see him make one), and he went 1/1 on that bank shot we saw in the previous practice. Donnal looked a little better than he did in the previous open practice as he was able to get some offensive boards on Doyle. MAAR had a lot of run with the scout team today, but that might just be a function of the scout team needing another guard. As far as practicing at multiple positions(guard/wing/post): Irvin played guard and wing (mostly wing), DJ played wing and post (mostly wing) and Moritz played wing and post (mostly post). Everyone else stuck to one position, I believe. Doyle seemed to draw continuous ire from Beilein for making sloppy mistakes.
Seemed like Wilson and Donnal got the most run as the 1st team frontcourt, so I anticipate that our exhibition lineup is gonna be
Walton - Levert - Dawkins - Wilson - Donnal
I think Donnal will start the season as the center as he seems to make fewer mistakes in practice than Doyle, and his main weakness (man - post defense) isn’t really tested in practice. So, I think he’ll go to the bench after getting beat up down low to start the season (he really doesn’t look any different to me).
I won’t ever declare Robinson and Dawkins the best shooters on the team without seeing them do it for a full season on the court. I’ll say it again, I think Dawkins is being overrated by most UM fans. He’s going to have his struggles this year.
Irvin was a full participant tonight? Two weeks of full participant practice should be enough to have him for Battle 4 Atlantis, no?
I'm not sure. Dude looks like he's in poor shape. Has no lift right now and I don't know if he was able to make a jumper the entire time I was watching. Idk how long it usually takes for one to get back into game shape after an injury like that.
I won't ever declare Robinson and Dawkins the best shooters on the team without seeing them do it for a full season on the court. I'll say it again, I think Dawkins is being overrated by most UM fans. He's going to have his struggles this year.
So which Dawkins were you watching last year? He shot 48% on threes in Big Ten games. Robinson I agree on…he’s done nothing here except in practice, but Dawkins HAS proved he can shoot the three against top notch D1 defenders.
So, was at the practice today. We got to see the last hour and 15 minutes of practice. A lot of the same drills as last night with about 6-8 minutes of scrimmage at the end. This was Irvin's first day being a full participant in practice, and apparently the first time Spike was a full participant in two weeks.
No one really shot particularly well (besides Duncan of course), so no one particularly stood out as having a great practice, IMO. DJ Wilson looked confident shooting the 3 (although I didn’t see him make one), and he went 1/1 on that bank shot we saw in the previous practice. Donnal looked a little better than he did in the previous open practice as he was able to get some offensive boards on Doyle. MAAR had a lot of run with the scout team today, but that might just be a function of the scout team needing another guard. As far as practicing at multiple positions(guard/wing/post): Irvin played guard and wing (mostly wing), DJ played wing and post (mostly wing) and Moritz played wing and post (mostly post). Everyone else stuck to one position, I believe. Doyle seemed to draw continuous ire from Beilein for making sloppy mistakes.
Seemed like Wilson and Donnal got the most run as the 1st team frontcourt, so I anticipate that our exhibition lineup is gonna be
Walton - Levert - Dawkins - Wilson - Donnal
I think Donnal will start the season as the center as he seems to make fewer mistakes in practice than Doyle, and his main weakness (man - post defense) isn’t really tested in practice. So, I think he’ll go to the bench after getting beat up down low to start the season (he really doesn’t look any different to me).
I’m not a huge fan of Donnal manning the post but if Wilson is his 4, that gives us a shot blocker to pair with him.
If we’re smaller at the 4, then I’d want to see Doyle in there like last year.
Ricky could shoot 5% from 10 feet, commit 6 turnovers per game, and occasionally foul out in the first half, and I would still prefer him to start over Donnal based on his vastly superior hustle, strength, rebounding, and pick and roll game.
Thanks for all the updates! Can’t wait to see the team in person myself (unfortunately have to miss the exhibition game).
Just a comment about Dawkins: generally the biggest weakness of freshmen who show potential (other than the differing weaknesses they have in their games) is their inconsistency. Based on the scrimmage video and reports from Dawkins himself, he seems a lot more comfortable out there and I really think that will lead to more consistent production. He won’t necessarily need to display as much of a well-rounded game as Irvin did in the second half of last year, but I definitely think he is more capable of that. I look forward to Irvin getting back to his peak comfort zone because we could then have 4 guys on the court who will all be difficult checks for opposing defenses.
As far as best shooter on the team, most will agree that Duncan would win 3-pt contests, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of six (!!) players led the team in 3-pt % this year. In fact, if I’m predicting, I’ll say LeVert ends up with the best 3-pt %.
I agree with GeoffClarke, it is a mistake to peg Robinson as one of our best in-game-shooters. We have 5 guys who have proven to be good 3 point shooters. We have 6 more guys who have shown they are potentially good 3 point shooters. I put Robinson in with the 6 unproven guys with potential. I hope he does well but there are a few red flags. If you have seen Division 3 defenses you will notice there is a lot more time/ space to get your shot off. I imagine Stauskas in that environment and I think it would be almost like watching him drain 3’s in his back yard. Robinson only shot 45% against that slow and short defense. Red flag.
The good news is we potentially have 11 guys who can shoot 3’s. 5 of those guys are proven good.
Well after all that, I do admit that Robinson will be very good, in fact I’d bet he’s over 40%. And if that’s his only role I would almost guarantee it. But we will have no reason for guys to take bad outside shots this year.
I won't ever declare Robinson and Dawkins the best shooters on the team without seeing them do it for a full season on the court. I'll say it again, I think Dawkins is being overrated by most UM fans. He's going to have his struggles this year.