This kid can really shoot. He will be a great compliment to LeVert if he returns or to Irvin. Watch out for him. He can easily crack not only the rotation, but the starting lineup. I see him playing the 4 since he is 6 foot 8. He will also see some time at the 3.
Best suited for the backup 3 in my view…would be really nice to have him in the same role Zak held last year. Think he can be really effective if utilized correctly
Best suited for the backup 3 in my view.........would be really nice to have him in the same role Zak held last year. Think he can be really effective if utilized correctly
That sounds about right. Looking again, he seemed to spend a good amount of time in the corner and as the play progressed rotated up from there off of screens.
I’d like to see him run some screen and pops with Walton or MAAR.
I’m not expecting the 45% but gosh if he can hit 40% from downtown…that’s a lot better role player than what we finished this year with.
Someone like him could really excel in this offense. He will have people like Zak, Caris if he returns, Derrick, and Spike getting the main focus someone like him will be getting good chances. Spike running this offense will help too as he is one of the best passers and floor generals you can find.
One thing that is different than most first year players is that he has already run the offense while a Williams. It was a little different but a lot of the lingo was the same (that’s usually the hardest part in the adjustment).
Not sure where he fits but tough to keep a 6’8" shooter off the floor especially if he can defend a little.
One thing that is different than most first year players is that he has already run the offense while a Williams. It was a little different but a lot of the lingo was the same (that's usually the hardest part in the adjustment).Not sure where he fits but tough to keep a 6’8" shooter off the floor especially if he can defend a little.
Yep. That combined with a year of practicing should make him pretty comfortable in his first year.
Dawkins shot 43.9% on threes without Caris to create for him. A lot of his threes came off various screen actions and transition.Big difference in release quickness and verticality on the jumpshot. Dawkins has a true jumpshot, which is ideal for coming off screens and shooting, whereas Duncan basically has a set shot, which is not conducive to coming off screens and shooting. Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion…don’t think he’s the type to come off pin downs because his release is too slow and he does not elevate very well.
Go back and watch his film. Almost all of his buckets are off the dribble utilizing screens. He’s 6’8" and his release is high. He doesn’t elevate a lot on his shot, but he doesn’t have to, and he gets it off quickly. Caris doesn’t elevate a lot on his perimeter shot, either. Williams College ran stuff very similar to what Beilein does, so he should have our stuff down by next season. Proof is in the pudding, but I’m optimistic.
Most of his shots are off the bounce going to the rim, but not jumpshots. I don’t anticipate Robinson’s handle/change of direction to be good enough to get to the rack at the high major level. Agree though that his release is quicker than I initially thought, but still don’t see him being used coming off screens at the midrange/elbow area in the same way that GR3/Dawkins are used.
I just watched the film this morning. His threes were almost all off the dribble, not catch and shoot. I’m responding directly to this comment: “Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion.” Clearly, the film contradicts that. Can he hit the mid-range shot coming off screens? He hit a couple on that video. He can make those shots. If you’re saying that he won’t get them off because he doesn’t elevate enough or isn’t capable skill wise of getting open on those shots, I’ll withhold judgement until he plays a few games, but I think he can.
One thing we’ve been reminded of year is just how important shooting is. Dakich has pointed out in multiple games – and he was right – how Michigan had an open 3 on one end, missed, while the other team came back with a contested 3, bucket, and ballgame. Especially in the way Michigan sets out to win games, shooting is key. Robinson will likely get minutes on that basis alone.
Shooting also creates space for others. A pick and roll with Walton and Doyle and 40% 3pt shooters around, say Irvin, Dawkins, and Robinson, is a very different play than the same set with Rahkman, Irvin, and Chatman.
Passing is also huge, again, especially in the way UM plays offense.
And there’s a difference between not being able to break down good defenders one on one and not being able to shoot or pass or get to the rim off a screen, say, or off a pump fake after an aggressive close out.
All that said, Robinson’s minutes will depend, (a) on his part, on how strong and quick he can get, and (b) the other options at 2-4 – whether Caris stays, what kind of progress others make, e.g., can Kam keep up the late shooting surge, improve his body, cut down TOs, etc. I have the feeling, in the end, that Robinson will get a decent amount of minutes.
I just watched the film this morning. His threes were almost all off the dribble, not catch and shoot. I'm responding directly to this comment: "Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion." Clearly, the film contradicts that. Can he hit the mid-range shot coming off screens? He hit a couple on that video. He can make those shots. If you're saying that he won't get them off because he doesn't elevate enough or isn't capable skill wise of getting open on those shots, I'll withhold judgement until he plays a few games, but I think he can.
This is just flat out false. I took the liberty to chart each of his makes from the the film below and it clearly reflects the fact that most of his shots come from penetration to the rim off the dribble, and the entire highlight is only composed of 3 jumpshots off the dribble in total…
Penetration to Rim off Dribble – 7
Catch and Shoot Three – 4
3 Off 1 Dribble with Screen - 2
Offball movement for Layup without Dribble – 2
Transition Layup – 2
3 Off Screen with No Dribble – 1
Back to the Basket Post – 1
Midrange/Elbow Jumper off Dribble – 1
Dumpoff for Layup - 1
Can Duncan Defend a D1 4? That’s what I’ll be interested in finding out.
I don’ think there is much question that offensively he will be ready to contribute from day 1. I believe a lot of people make too much of the DIII thing in terms of level of competition. Certainly the individual talent is not going to be great, but the team defense is much better at that level than it is at the high school. I don’t think his release is much of an issue at all. It is plenty quick (its much quicker than Kam’s or where GRIII’s was at the start) and he is 6’8. His ball skills also look solid.
The big question is whether or not he can defend. I think a lot of people have correctly pointed to what some of his issues may be on that end. But it is also important to remember that Beilein, for most of the B10 season, played a guy at the 4 this year that had those same issues (maybe even more issues when you consider the off ball stuff). Obviously, a lot of that was based on not having any options, but at the same time it does show a willingness to try and hide some individual defensive issues, if the player is providing a big offensive boost.
If Caris is gone and no other players are brought in on the wing, I am guessing Robinson will be in the mix to start at the 3 and certainly will get a lot of minutes off the bench in the wing rotation. If Caris is back, it changes things a lot as there would be two huge minutes eaters on the wings with Caris and Zak.
Out of 21 makes, 4 were catch and shoot if your tabulation is correct. The rest were threes off screens, drives, layups and mid range. The film contradicts your comment even by your own count: “Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion.” Only 4 of 21 shots were stand still catch and shoot.
Out of 21 makes, 4 were catch and shoot if your tabulation is correct. The rest were threes off screens, drives, layups and mid range. The film contradicts your comment even by your own count: "Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion." Only 4 of 21 shots were stand still catch and shoot.
Now you are just flat out lying. Your exact comment was ‘almost all of his threes were off the dribble’ - false. You also said ‘he hit a couple (midrange)’ shots off the dribble - again, false. Out of 8 total jumpshots, 5 included not a single dribble. I clearly stated that Duncan gets to the rim off the bounce but Was of the opinion that he’s a catch and shot guy for jumpshots. The film and chart backs that up much more in my favor vs your contention
I think the point is that from a bulk of the shots in the highlight video (which I cut from about 3 games)… He’s shooting on the move more often than not. That’s an important distinction that I think you guys both hit on. Even without shooting off the bounce, there’s a difference between catch and shoot off of a drive and kick and catch and shoot off a curl.
I think the point is that from a bulk of the shots in the highlight video (which I cut from about 3 games).. He's shooting on the move more often than not. That's an important distinction that I think you guys both hit on. Even without shooting off the bounce, there's a difference between catch and shoot off of a drive and kick and catch and shoot off a curl.
Exactly.i don’t think Duncan is a catch and shoot off the curl because he has a set shot. If you want to say that Duncan can get to the rack off the dribble based on the film, I take no issue even though I don’t think he can do that vs high major comp. But the contention that the majority of his jumpers are off the dribble is purely a lie.
Well, I’m not lying. I just didn’t count every shot and categorize. Went on my impression after watching film that he did not take many catch and shoot threes, that his threes involved movement utilizing a screen - with or without dribble. Since you make the charge that I’m lying, I went back again and found three threes off the dribble, including one moving to his left, plus one where he came around a screen but didn’t have to dribble because he defender went under the screen, and three catch and shoot. Even then he wasn’t stagnating in the corner on any of them. The one that he did take from the corner actually involved movement out to the corner and utilized a screener on the baseline, but was catch and shoot - with a pump fake, once he got there. He also had a mid range jumper coming around a screen in the lane and another with back to the basket where he dribbled and shot a turn around jumper. Those are my “couple.” My point is still sound looking at the film that he didn’t take many catch and shoot threes nor did he stand in the corner and shoot from a stagnant position.
I’ll word it this way - Duncan made the vast majority of his shots in the offense. The offense of course requires movement so he hit a lot of 3s coming off the dribble hand of from the 5 and if the defense does not show on him he’d knock it down immediately. It was rare for him to put the ball on the floor and then pull up for 3. If/when he put the ball on the floor it was typically to drive to the bucket and more often than not he was going all the way to the hole and not attempting a midrange although I suspect that maybe the case next year. Was he a catch and shoot guy - absolutely because as part of the offense guys penetrated and kicked and Duncan would often be the recipient of that action.
Duncan had more of a set shot at Williams but that was mainly because he could, I suspect that a lot of the time this year he was working on a quicker release because he won’t have the time to take that shot. If I’m thinking of a comparison player the first guy I think of is Peja Stojakovic. Peja never had the super fast release of Steph or Klay, but it was a quick enough release in combination of being tall that he had no problem getting good looks. I think Duncan will have that same type of ability on the perimeter.
“I’ll word it this way - Duncan made the vast majority of his shots in the offense.The offense of course requires movement so he hit a lot of 3s coming off the dribble hand of from the 5 and if the defense does not show on him he’d knock it down immediately…” I think that that’s fair, and it sounds like you are not just relying on the video. There weren’t many examples of penetration and kick out to Duncan on the video.