Next Years Team

Michigan Basketball
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I’m optimistic, and my optimism comes from thinking next year’s team does actually have a high ceiling, and because we have a coach who is great at pushing players to their potential (Plenty want to complain about the lack of talent and recruiting, but many of those same people are calling MAAR our best player–a player who was ranked 250+, found by Beilein, and groomed by Beilein).

Returning all of the players who significantly contributed to this season IS a good thing. Though it isn’t guaranteed to happen, players tend to get better with increased experience. Just look at rest of the conference’s players who we envy: Forbes, Valentine, Costello, Utoff, Rapheal Davis, Yogi, Troy Williams, etc. All of them got better with age, and most of them (biggest exception is yogi) made the switch from irrelevant/under-performers to high-quality players and leaders.

And I believe that every player on our roster can get better. Perhaps it is unlikely that any of our players make a huge of a jump as Trey, Nik, or Caris (and it should be unlikely, that sudden and massive upgrade in performance is unprecedented and the reason they were some of the best to ever wear the maize and blue), but if you take this team and make every/most of the players better, then you have yourself a really good, experienced team.

I am actually fairly low on the incoming class, except that Xavier Simpson looks like he will be the rock and foundation of our program for the next 4 years. I think it’s unlikely, but IF he can earn 15 minutes a game next year, that’s huge, because it means he is good enough to keep more experienced players on the bench. I hope I am wrong about Ibi, Teske, and Davis, but they dont seem capable of being more than serviceable role players (fingers crossed for Ibi to follow in Caris’ footsteps).

Finally, I still think our team can get back to elite shooting. The sudden and steep drop off in 3pt shooting has been brutal. When we miss those 3s, it hurts the other facets of our offensive game and totally saps any effort out of our already poor defense. This team is full of good shooters, who have all proved that they can shoot at an elite clip, so if they are able to do that consistently, then next year’s team will undoubtedly be better. I am less optimistic about the defense (I just dont think we will ever be an upper-half B1G defensive team) but there’s no way we can not improve, if only because the baseline is so low. But, even our best teams werent ‘good’ B1G defenses, they were just not-bad enough to let the offense win games.

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I’m not expecting huge leaps by any one certain individual, except I’m hoping Moe Wags has a big offseason, has a great sophomore leap, adds 5" to his vertical and gives us a two-headed interior monster.

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I’m hoping Kam Chatman can make a huge leap out of nowhere. I am well aware that’s a ton to hope for but it just kills me how highly touted a recruit he was and how he has been. He was expected to be the face of the program and he is nowhere near.

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No true creator, and a consistent inability to stop someone when needed severely limits this roster. Ibi’s NOT getting any minutes next year and Teske likely is headed for a RS. X is a 5-8 minute guy next year at best.

That leaves any significant improvement to come from within. Whom might that come from with any significant impact? Call me skeptical.

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There’s plenty of players whose improvement would be impactful, it’s just a matter of if/how much they improve. If Duncan gets better at getting open, Derrick and MAAR get better at passing out of the PNR, Zak get’s quicker and fixes shot selection, Aubrey gets a serviceable handle and becomes not the worst defensive player in the B1G, Ricky starts catching the ball, and/or Moe and Kam make less dumb misakes, you dont think the team would be drastically improved? I am not saying that all of that is going to happen or that all of the players are suddenly going to be great at what they are currently bad at, but some players will improve on their weaknesses and enhance their strengths, and it will make us a better team.

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If you see a potential big time creator on this existing roster who would it be? Walton - Irvin? Not a chance.

Who on this roster has even one ounce of potential of being a B1G defensive impact stopper? …

The same roster we have today is going to get 95% of next years minutes, with a 100% of the exact same limitations.

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There are a lot of improvements to be made for individual players.

Robinson becoming a better 3 point shooter in conference when the lights are on, improving his dribbling and explosiveness so teams will respect his game more.

Walton becoming a threat inside the arc shooting inside the arc at 37%. Easy for opponents to guard when you’re not a threat to hit shots consistently.

Dawkins developing a clue defensively.

In general this team has to become a lot more aggressive period on the offensive and defensive end. Far too often on offense this team tries to lay the ball in instead of dunking it. Irvin and Donnal are the biggest culprits when it comes to that.

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Can’t speak for anyone other than myself, but the reason I like MAAR is that his game has shown a lot of growth whereas many others have essentially plateaued or even regressed. I also like the way he defies some JB stereotypes – yes, he was way under the radar, but he’s also an aggressive attacker with above-average quickness who gets to the FT line and seems to prefer driving to settling for jump shots. (JB called him an “east-coast guard” or something, but there are a lot of guards like him everywhere… we just rarely recruit them. I guess the last one was Brundidge, but that didn’t work out so well…) MAAR also plays something resembling defense.

I do hope that at least one of our guys makes the leap forward that you suggest by pointing to Uthoff, Forbes, Costello etc. Do I think Donnal or Doyle will ever become the next Costello? No. Donnal is now catching and finishing passes but he’ll never be the mean, physical, rebounding presence that Costello is. Do I think DJ or Wagner will become Uthoff, or that Chatman will snap out of his funk and become the next Hayes? Not really, but I suppose we can hope.

That said, it’s hard to understand your optimism when you are so low on the incoming class. (For the record, I am too.) I am holding out some hope for Teske only because he is a true seven footer and held a Matta offer (and Matta doesn’t tend to compromise on physical tools, though he often overlooks b-ball IQ). Those factors alone defy the JB stereotype of the undersized, soft big that nobody wanted. My only hope is that he isn’t one of those lead-footed bargain-basement seven footers that you can find on maybe one third of all mid-major teams. But I figure he faces decent competition in Ohio, so I don’t think that’s very likely.

Also on the bright side, Xavier will be slightly better than Cassius Winston. On the other hand, nobody on our roster will hold a candle to Bridges, Langford, or Ward. It won’t be pretty playing those guys.

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You are cherry picking a few select attributes that the team needs to improve. If the only way this team could get better is to 1)Have a player develop into a Trey/Valentine/Yogi creator or 2)Develop into a Raphael Davis/AJ Hammons/Utoff defender, then yeah, we arent going to get better. But that logic is just wrong. Both of those things would undoubtedly make us better, but we can also get better by other means. AlbrechtShotFake cited one already: Duncan improving his shooting and dribbling. Everyone on the team can get better at some things, and at least a few of them will, so we will be a better team next year.

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I agree, those are the same reasons that I like MAAR. But I dont think he becomes good enough to be (arguably) the best player on Michigan’s roster, if he doesnt have JB to coach him up to that point. My point is that, just like how JB made MAAR better, he can make other players better. Not all of them will become a lot better and not all of them will even become as good as MAAR, but JB will develop this team to be better next year.

I didnt mean to suggest that one or more of our players will make the jump from serviceable to 1st/2nd All-B1G, but I can see how the players I listed would make it seem like that’s what I meant. Those names were just easy to think of, when listing players who got significantly better. I dont think any of our players will (maybe some can, but wont) develop into an all-conference player. I am just saying that another year of eligibility is another year where making a noticeable improvement is possible.

I can be optimistic about next year, and the year after, without being optimistic about the incoming class because only 2 of our players are going to graduate at the end of next season. Even if Ibi, Teske, and Davis dont contribute much, that’s fine because we have a bunch of sophomores this year (MAAR, Aubrey, Duncan, Mark) that can lead the team in 2017-2018, with Simpson stepping in for Walton. I also really like Poole, which I didnt say earlier.

I cant argue with your MSU assessment. The B1G will be in the hands of their ridiculous recruiting class. All we can do is hope that Davis bolts for the NBA and that the rest of them leave after 1 year. I am actually really curious to see if/how Izzo keeps a bunch of 5-star 18-year-olds in line. Usually his players have been humbled by a few years on the bench, before they see meaningful minutes.

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I guess this thread can go back to expectations. In order to finish at the top of the standings you really do need a B1G player of the year type guy.

This year Valentine might win it but he also missed 4 games, Ferrell should get heavy consideration considering they won the B1G. Last year Wisconsin won the conference with POY Kaminsky. In 2014 it was Michigan with Stauskas, 2013 had Michigan within one game and Trey Burke. 2012 it was Draymond Green and they got a share of the title, 2011 it was JuJuan Johnson they were 14-4 in the conference finished 2nd, the year before in 2010 it was Evan Turner and OSU won the conference. In 2009 it was Kalin Lucas and MSU won the B1G. Does Michigan currently on their roster have a player of the year type of guy it doesn’t really look like it. So the team could be better next year not close to a contender most likely.

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That’s a good point, there is hardly ever a B1G champ that doesnt have an all-conference player. I don’t really think, unfortunately, that B1G champ is anyone’s expectations for next year. The team will have to play better (this year or next year) to earn that kind of optimism.

For the sake of dreaming, though, I still think Zak and Dwalt are our best hope at all-conference player. If either can become a consistent 3pt shooter and average a per-game statline of ~17pts, ~4 assist, ~4 rebounds should put them in the neighborhood. That’s close to what Caris was averaging and what Nik averaged during his MVP campaign. And Walton could really turn some heads by making it more like 17pt, 4 asst, 6 rebounds because he’s a 6ft point guard.

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Offensive creator = Abdul-Rachman
Defensive stopper = Wilson

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Spartan fan here leaving an opinion on what next year looks like in the Big Ten.

First off, Michigan should be in the thick of the conference race due to who everyone else is losing. Having 2 seniors injured on the bench has really given some guys like MAAR and Dawkins more important game minutes. While it stinks for this year, it will be key for the team next year. I decided to go off what JBlair52 said earlier about who is playing next season for the top teams (not looking at Illinois/Minnesota/Rutgers/NW/Nebraska since they aren’t competing for championships any time soon, and Iowa, who literally loses everything but Jok)

Favorites

MSU - lose Valentine/Forbes/Costello, gain 4-5 elite recruits, all top 40 guys. The 5th may be Josh Jackson who would give Izzo 3 5 star guys to use next season. I am in the opinion that Davis comes back for 1 more year before he tests the NBA waters. If Davis returns, he will team with a bunch of experienced guys, led by Harris, and superstar freshmen. Key will be if Izzo can get all the new big personalities to gel.

Wisconsin - They have essentially the exact same team coming back, the only way this changes is if Nigel Hayes enters the NBA draft, which at this point hes looking at rd 2 probably. Happ and Koenig will win this team a lot of games. As of right now, the have 0 new guys coming into the program but i bet there is a guy on the bench somewhere reshirting that comes out of nowhere.

Contenders

Maryland - They lose Layman and Suliamon for sure, and most think Stone and Melo will enter the draft early. The also lose Ram, who while playing little minutes, has come up with some timely defense that has won them a game or two. Bringing in 2 top 100 guards cant mitigate the loses this team takes. Included them in contenders because they likely lose Melo and Stone, but if they keep 1 or both, they jump to being one of the favorites.

Michigan - No one that contributed in the Big Ten season leaves a team that won double digit games headed into the contest with Iowa. While I don’t think they beat Iowa or make the NCAA tournament (could easily be wrong with Iowa falling apart), they will have gained valuable experience and bringing in a PG like X will help in case of the expected Walton ankle injury next year. Not sure any of the other freshman make an impact. You have to think that Irvin makes an improvement in his game if he can stay healthy, and if Robinson can learn to put the ball on the floor effectively, this team can make some noise. Have to think Dawkins and MAAR become more consistent with another year in the system, those guys have talent thought.

Ohio St - Simply because Tate is back, along with everyone else. They bring in a couple of decent freshmen. They need to find a true PG, as Lyle seems to be a pure scorer and has trouble distributing the basketball

Purdue - They lose Davis and Hammons but return the rest of the guys on a solid team. Haas and Swanigan should improve and will be able to play together more efficiently. They bring in a top 100 shooting guard but still need a guy who can dribble the basketball

Small Chance to make noise

Indiana - They bring in a couple guards ranked in the 50s but losing Ferrell is huge. You are talking about an all time great at Indiana and the guy that everything goes through. If not for Valentine, this guy would be a lock for PotY in the Big Ten. Losing Biefeldt (wouldnt he have been nice in AA this year) and Ziesloft will sting as well. I think the Thomas Bryant is a lock to go pro as well. That leaves Troy Williams, who is an athlete but not a basketball player, JB Jr, who is a black hole offensively, and a couple guys (OG, and Robert Johnson) who are solid players.

Penn St - They bring in the best recruiting class in the history of the program, and the 3rd best in the Big Ten. The kids basically all play at the same high school in Philly and i think we all know how that can translate to the college game (see Valentine/Forbes). Losing Taylor hurts, and the lose a couple other big men in Jack and Dickerson but those guys are very good. If the freshmen click, watch out. Penn St beat Iowa and Indiana this year. I’d be surprised if they don’t beat a couple teams ahead of them on this list next year.

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It’s unfortunately another down year in the B1G next year. I love when the conference is the best in the nation

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Appreciate the balanced perspective. The one flaw I’d say in most of the “step up” expectations in existing players is that players like Dawkins and Doyle, who had ample time/opportunity last year, have actually taken steps backward. That evidence supports this not being anything near a safe conclusion. Maar and Donnal did move forward, that supports that its possible to continue that trajectory and hopefully include Kam/Dawkins/others and others in it.

Even if all the other guys follow the Donnal/Maar plan though, the team still needs someone/multiple players who will put the team on their back, lead, motivate, and will victories or at least an emotional response, and our lack of consistency and focus at times this year is symptomatic of what I feel is a lack of this discipline more broadly, even if 2-3 players make a moderate leap. 28-0 runs should never happen, and returning everyone from a team who didn’t step up to knock someone on their butt, or take it upon themselves to reclaim a bit of dignity is concerning. That isnt something JB needs to develop in you, its something you have or you don’t. I’m worried we don’t have enough personalities with that instinct, but I hope X is one, and maybe Zak/Derrick can suddenly find it.

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Didn’t realize Penn St had a nice class coming in…looks like they raided RCHS in Philly. Good move.

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I disagree that Doyle and Dawkin’s took a step backward. They may not have grown any, but they didn’t go in reverse.

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I believe they went backwards. Dawkins hasn’t had nearly the same amount of looks or offensive responsibilities as last yeAr and that one has set him back. He also isn’t doing anything to make himself get involved offensively to make up for it do is say it’s a step back. Lots of us/ I included thought he was going to step up into a major offensive role and help this team big time in the scoring department.

Doyle I feel like is obvious step back. There was alot of hope for him to develop into a nice big man and instead he can’t even catch a ball. It’s bouncing off his face and off his feet out of bounds . I’d say that is a major step back, to have to hold your breAth whenever he’s dropped s pass for a gimme. That’s just me

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Wrong thread. Sorry.