Final Four 2018: Michigan vs. Villanova Discussion Thread


#41

Oh I do! Shots all afternoon long on the Riverwalk! I’m just hoping for something nice to sip on during the game.


#42

#43

Have to take away 3-point volume to have a chance. Have to score the ball better than they have all tourney other than Texas A&M to have a chance.

I think Villanova’s defense is good, but maybe not elite. They win by outscoring teams. I just don’t really have a read on whether this defense can lock down an offense as good as Villanova’s.


#44

Creating a little doubt early would help a lot. Villanova was a juggernaut last night.


#45

I’m flying in from AK, need to buy 1 game ticket and get a hotel room. Where are the Loyola/Kansas tix being sold?


#46

108-110 was Loyola, 136-138 was Kansas.

I assume the Nova section doesn’t change. That to me means Michigan’s bench will be in the Kansas section.


#47

#48

Thanks MB10!


#49

Can we get the team rankings/stats from the last 16 games for both teams?


#50

They are 1 and 2 since Feb 1.


#51

No problem! The bench setup for tomorrow is my gut instinct and assumption. Those are definitely the sections from Saturday though.


#52

So I’ve been obsessively thinking about this game all day today and what type of gameplan we could possibly come up with. I keep coming back to how we limited Purdue’s secondary shooters in the big ten tournament. Limit Mathias, Edwards, Thompson’s looks and make Haas beat you and/or Carsen Edwards going one on one with Z… Purdue is still kenpom’s #2 offense and Villanova is #1, even though there is a large gap between the two of them.

So obviously Nova doesn’t have a Haas. Spellman and Paschall are pretty much lights out shooters. So the thought that keeps coming back to me…I think we gotta use the same gameplan on Spellman, Paschall, Bridges, Booth, DiVincenso that we did on Purdue’s wings and shooters. I think Nova’s players are way more talented and will be harder to close out on. But I also doubt they have seen a disciplined 5-man defensive unit like us all year and are probably used to open look after open look like in the Kansas game.

That leads me to my crazy thought…I think we gotta make Jalen Brunson beat us with his shot. He’s the player of the year so he definitely could. But Z can make it tougher to do than anyone else has all year. They run so much through Brunson and a lot of action is post-oriented on the block and the help side guys lose track of their man for one second and he finds cutters, or they over help and he finds shooters. I’d love to see us stay home and make Brunson get his own.

So I also did a little research…and I think there’s at least a little bit of a trend to back up this concept.

In Nova’s losses (4 games), Brunson is averaging 18.25 shot attempts per game in 35.0 minutes.

In close games that Nova has won by 10 points or less (8 games), Brunson is averaging 13.5 shot attempts per game in 34.5 minutes.

In blowout wins by 10 or more points (27 games), Brunson is averaging 11.9 shot attempts per game in 30.6 minutes.


#53

Yeah my takeaway from Dylan’s posts were to never double in the post. Nova seems more dangerous passing out of the post than shooting from it.


#54

People were guessing that Tony Carr would post Simpson up too. While not being nearly the passer Brunson is, does anyone remember if that actually happened in our game vs PSU and if he had success doing it or not? I remember very little about that game.


#55

Difference is that Carr didn’t have a history of posting players up. Brunson does and he’s fairly effective at it.

I don’t remember Carr doing so, at least not often, against Simpson. I remember them going to their center for a ton of post ups when it didn’t make any sense to do so since he is mostly a rebound and putback/pick and roll type scorer


#56

VU did recently face the #4 Kenpom defense (Texas Tech), ranked just behind us. The good news: TT held them to 24 attempts beyond the arc and they made only 4. We’re probably making a lot of use of that game tape right now…


#57

Additionally, Texas Tech’s defense only ranks #29th in efficiency when measured since the start of February (Michigan is ranked #1).


#58

In the second half, Carr posted up Simpson successfully a couple times. They then switched Simpson off of him.


#59

Think you are right buckets. Nova is a team that will carve you up if you help. Not over help but just plain old help. They really cut and move well off the ball once they see those extra defenders go to the ball. Gotta make them beat you one on one with shooting over you. Take away straight line drives, stay down on pump fakes and off the ball keep the hedges/shows quick and relatively soft.

But ultimately don’t think Michigan wins this game with defense. Sure the defense can give them a chance but I don’t think it can stop nova. Michigan is going to have to score.


#60

Wasn’t sure where to put this, but I am glad to see the guys staying loose. Maybe the legend of The Drip Boys should get its own thread.