Final Four 2018: Michigan vs. Villanova Discussion Thread


#61

So I had to post the major media debut of The Drip Boys.


#62

I don’t see this game as that much of a mismatch. This is how I see the roster matchups:

Starters
Simpson < Brunson
MAAR > Booth
Matthews = Bridges
Livers < Paschall
Wagner > Spellman

Bench
Michigan > Villanova

Coaching
Beilein = Wright

We have more options off the bench. They really only play 6 guys so foul trouble for one of their big guys would be HUGE for us. Either team is capable of shooting lights out and scoring a bunch of points but I can’t see that happening. I think they are far too similar to teams that we’ve already played to have too much of an advantage on the offensive end. Their best offensive players are going up against our best defensive players. (Simpson/Brunson Matthews/Bridges) We will not give them wide open shots like Kansas did and if they hit a few contested ones, so be it. I think this is a pretty close game all the way until the end and the team who can execute late and make the shots will win. I believe we win this game 73-70. Go blue!


#63

It basically comes down to a test of wherever Michigan’s defense is legit against the best offense in the country.


#64

I have one extra. Are you still looking for a ticket?

Edit: Just sold, nevermind!


#65

Bridges is a lottery pick, I’m not sure I’m on board with this.


#66

Yeah Mikal Bridges is basically Charles except with elite catch and shoot ability. Maybe next year…


#67

And whether Michigan can avoid a sub 30% 3 point shooting night


#68

Two things to say, Tom. Well, three things. First, THANKS for posting, I love it! Second, I see the same loose, fun lovin’, swag THIS weekend that was there for MSU, and we KNOW what happened that game! Three, these guys are gonna be FUN for the next few years! Again, thinks for posting. I’m just laughin’ and feeling good watching these guys havin’ fun! Go BLUE!!!


#69

Besides shooting 3s, in what way is Bridges better than the player Matthews has become? I’d also take Matthews on the defensive end.


#70

Not sure id call Matthews a better defender. Similar maybe. Bridges has a 7’0" wingspan though, thus the whole lottery pick thing…also Bridges averages a full block better than Matthews per 40 minutes and 0.6 more steals per 40. He also averaged a full turnover less per 40.

CM averages more rebounds and assists but his shooting percentages aren’t in the same stratosphere.


#71

Bridges is much better off the ball, creating putback opportunities, driving off closeouts, etc.

Bridges is really all around a much more skilled player, but his decision-making and fundamentals there are worse than Charles’. I feel like the most clear and obvious example of this is that Bridges has an obviously better handle and jumper than Matthews, yet Matthews is more effecient and productive in the pick and roll because he just makes better decisions as to when to drive/shoot/pass. Irvin was the same way. If Bridges can be put into situations where he doesn’t have to make decisions and can just make simple plays against the defense he’s much better. Basically Bridges is an elite role-player due to his natural skill.


#72

To be fair, Matthews in the tournament is a fully different player. I agree with @johnmiller to be honest. Right now, through March, Charles is on par with Bridges. Full year? No. Recently? Yep.


#73

Are the Kenpom numbers comparable year to year? Our 2013 team was 37th in AdjD with a 94.0, but that same number would rank #10 this year. But I’m not sure if that makes sense- would it be like comparing ERAs from different time periods? (A 2.00 ERA in the steroid era was unbelievable, but in the deadball days it wouldn’t mean as much.)


#74

I am not 100% sure, but I believe that they are just adjusting to the yearly average. Looking at the KenPom rankings, median offensive/defensive effeciency in 2013 was about 103 (i.e. 1.03 PPP) and now in 2018 it’s 105.


#75

On paper they are a better team and they are a much better coached team than the sparties. But we have nothing to loss and tonight might be the one that we shoot the light out.


#76

Bridges is 92nd percentile in ball screens according to Dylan’s match up breakdown article. I think Bridges is going to be a really good NBA player, he’s basically the prototype 3-and-D player. Charles has gotten way better, but he’s still not on Bridges level imo.

And even if they were even in everything except 3 point shooting, that whole 3 point shooting things is a pretty big deal.


#77

Providence and St Johns had the best D they faced in conference. I don’t think it’s a coincidence Providence nearly went 2-1 against them and St Johns upset them. Big East had some good teams but nowhere near elite defenses.


#78

I just watched the Villanova presser. I try to space all of this stuff out because today is going to be such an inordinately long day waiting for THE GAME to start at 9:20 or whatever the actual tip is. I absolutely want Coach B to be our coach until, well, until he’s ready to call it quits, is in the HOF, and has a building named after him or the court named for him. But, Jay Wright has secretly always been the guy I would want to replace Coach B. I DON’T want anyone to replace Coach B, but it will inevitably happen. I know, Jay is probably never leaving Nova. We have a great program, but so does Nova. Two National Championship appearances and conceivably two National Champions in three years is pretty spectacular. He has always been my second favorite coach behind Coach B.

I know Jay Wright doesn’t have to sell his program like Porter Moser does. I know he doesn’t have to sell himself. But he does it just by being so honest and so real, and really, very humble. I don’t know how anyone couldn’t like him, or trust him. He sells his program just by being who he is. When he is asked questions he doesn’t talk in generalities the way others sometimes do. When asked about Coach B he gives specific examples of why Coach B is a great coach and a great person. He doesn’t just say, “Michigan is a great team” or “Give credit to Michigan” the way others do. He gives specific examples of what MAKES Michigan a great team, what makes them hard to guard. When asked about Moe Wagner, he talks very specifically about the things Moe does that make him unique, hard to guard, and very good. He doesn’t say, “Yeah, Wagner is a great player, now let’s talk some more about Sister Jean.” Sorry, I couldn’t help. I really do like Porter Moser, too.

I loved that he mentioned, of course NOT by name because, incredibly, the NCAA doesn’t allow him to, how he mentioned recruiting Eli Brooks who he thought he was going to get, and who he said is going to be a really good player, but John got him. I just really like the guy, and I like his players, too. In many ways he’s a younger, taller, smoother (not that it matters) JB kind of coach. I like that. I sure hope the older, Columbo type coach comes out on top tonight, and his team defeats the younger, smoother, George Clooney coach. I have a prediction, but I don’t usually make predictions on message boards for fear I’ll jinx my own prediction, but I have a feeling. :wink: Go BLUE!!!


#79

Yes, great defense alone won’t be enough if we can’t make shots.


#80

I think you’re undervaluing three point shooting.