Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)

What would it take to move up to a 7 seed? Beat N’W and Nebraska +1 in the BTT?

Would hate to get an 8-9 matchup and get a 1 seed in the second round.

Though the seeding of a lot of the “bracketologists” isn’t always accurate, so I could be worrying about nothing.

Probably need 2 in the BTT.

I’d welcome seeing gonzaga in the second round. I think It’d be a great matchup and fun game to watch.

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Two wins this week would boost Michigan’s RPI into the 30s, but I still think you need to get to at least Saturday of the Big Ten Tourney. Because of how the tiebreakers fall that probably means 2 wins.

But hell, as one scenario, let’s say that Michigan wins @NW, @NEB, vs. OSU and vs. Minnesota then lose to Purdue? The resume would suddenly look really good. RPI Forecast comes up around 31st with that scenario. Who knows where they’d be seeded.

That seems like we are getting a little ahead of ourselves though, let’s see how this week plays out.

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Nebraska on the road is going to be a problem I fear.

I wonder if we want Illinois to win at Nebraska tonight. Nebraska probably won’t fall out of the top 100. Illinois is 59 in RPI, with MSU and @Rutgers left. They could end up being a top 50 win. Looking at their schedule, they were swept by PSU, but if they had even won the home game they’d still have a shot and if they’d swept PSU instead they’d probably be in.

But maybe it’s better to make sure Nebraska stays top 100. Plus I’d rather root for Miles.

Hm…Go Illini!

The committee also rightly thinks the Big Ten is a pile of dog crap. I don’t see any way we jump much higher than an 8 seed unless we win out including the entire tournament

Palm had us as a 9 seed before, so no movement, although he took off the bubble designation. Moving up or down would also depend on what other teams do. The game @Northwestern on Wednesday will be a big one for both teams. Suddenly they’re the team with more pressure on them. A good amount of seeding upside for us though.

I think we all get a bit surprised and Michigan ends up with a higher seed than we think, whatever the projection is heading into selection sunday.

Advanced metrics and Kenpom have loved Michigan all year. I can see the committee using Michigan as one of the teams justifying a higher seed due to non-RPI factors. They keep saying they want to go away from RPI, well Michigan is a good example.

Win out and get to Sunday and no way will we be less than a 7-seed. Two wins in the B1G tourney would probably do it. That would mean about 15 top 100 wins, 5 top 50 wins, a top 25 or even top 20 kenpom/BPI ranking. Big ten may have no great teams but there’s a lot of good teams. Hollis will be sure to make that clear :smile:

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I want no end result aided by an Illinois win.

No. No gonzaga, they are for real this year. Barring a real tough draw and even if, I see them as a lock for elite eight. They are that deep and versatile. Moe would cause karnowski problems but the beauty of fews team is he has great depth. He could put Collins or the French frosh in and they’d be able to match moes speed and skill.

Williams matches up with Wilson very well and has the edge in toughness and rebounding. I’d give goss and Mathews the edge in backcourt over Walton and maar. Their bench is stronger. I don’t see where we have an edge. Their a better version of Purdue. There’s no doubt in my mind they would have won the big ten this year. Dakich always asks that question to try and discredit them or show the big tens not down but I am pretty certain they’d win the big ten regular season this year.

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Question: Which big 10 team has the best chance to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament?

Clark Kellogg’s answer: Michigan.

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Is this in an article?

He was on cbs I believe.

No. Kellogg answered the question today and it was part of the cbs pregame day show, prior to the Syracuse/Louisville game.

Ah, dang. I wish I was watching. If we keep playing like this then I could absolutely see us as a second weekend team.

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Unfortunately the committee/ media is down on the conference. If we somehow win out then win say two in the conference tourney, we’d be what 23-10? Or 23-11 I mean. With a bunch of good wins and not one bad loss, we’d deserve at least a 7 or 6. They’d probably make us an 8 or 9 though. I’d rather be an 11 or 10 than an 8 or 9. Much easier to make deep runs from those seeds. Let’s hope we play up to a 6 or 7