Offseason Thread: Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson sat out this season due to transfer regulations, but will be eligible this year.

What do we expect from him next year? Where does he fit in the lineup?

I thought Robinson was going to play the 2…ala Stauskas. The film on him showed very similar plays and playing style as Stauskas. Is he planning on playing a different position?

I thought Robinson was going to play the 2...ala Stauskas. The film on him showed very similar plays and playing style as Stauskas. Is he planning on playing a different position?

I’d be pretty surprised if Robinson played the 2 next year, just lacks the ball handling/change of direction to be a sufficient creator. If Duncan is our starting 2 next year I think we have problems on both ends of the court.

Very unlikely that Robinson sees time at the 2 next year, and probably ever. He just is not enough of a playmaker. To the extent that he does play next year (and I doubt he’ll average much more than 5 minutes a game, especially if LeVert stays), he’ll be basically a spot-up shooter. Maybe he catches up with the DI game as a junior or senior and shows more, but I wouldn’t count on too much too soon from him. If LeVert leaves, Walton, Albrecht and MAAR will be our rotation at the 1/2 (like it or not), with Irvin, Dawkins, Chatman and Robinson working at the 3/4. Wilson will not play the 4. What time he gets next season will be backing up Doyle as the one big on the floor. I’d be very surprised if we play more than token minutes with two bigs on the floor at once. That’s just not Beilein, and we don’t have that much talent in the frontcourt, anyway.

Very unlikely that Robinson sees time at the 2 next year, and probably ever. He just is not enough of a playmaker. To the extent that he does play next year (and I doubt he'll average much more than 5 minutes a game, especially if LeVert stays), he'll be basically a spot-up shooter. Maybe he catches up with the DI game as a junior or senior and shows more, but I wouldn't count on too much too soon from him. If LeVert leaves, Walton, Albrecht and MAAR will be our rotation at the 1/2 (like it or not), with Irvin, Dawkins, Chatman and Robinson working at the 3/4. Wilson will not play the 4. What time he gets next season will be backing up Doyle as the one big on the floor. I'd be very surprised if we play more than token minutes with two bigs on the floor at once. That's just not Beilein, and we don't have that much talent in the frontcourt, anyway.

I have seen Duncan bust up his teammates a couple of times this year. He is one of the top 2 or 3 players on the roster. He will play for than 5 minutes a game. Starter or getting starter minutes.

Very unlikely that Robinson sees time at the 2 next year, and probably ever. He just is not enough of a playmaker. To the extent that he does play next year (and I doubt he'll average much more than 5 minutes a game, especially if LeVert stays), he'll be basically a spot-up shooter. Maybe he catches up with the DI game as a junior or senior and shows more, but I wouldn't count on too much too soon from him. If LeVert leaves, Walton, Albrecht and MAAR will be our rotation at the 1/2 (like it or not), with Irvin, Dawkins, Chatman and Robinson working at the 3/4. Wilson will not play the 4. What time he gets next season will be backing up Doyle as the one big on the floor. I'd be very surprised if we play more than token minutes with two bigs on the floor at once. That's just not Beilein, and we don't have that much talent in the frontcourt, anyway.

I have seen Duncan bust up his teammates a couple of times this year. He is one of the top 2 or 3 players on the roster. He will play for than 5 minutes a game. Starter or getting starter minutes.

Also take into consideration, Duncan Busted up teammates who were part of a team that didn’t make it to the post season.

My expectations on Duncan Robinson are tempered.

Very unlikely that Robinson sees time at the 2 next year, and probably ever. He just is not enough of a playmaker. To the extent that he does play next year (and I doubt he'll average much more than 5 minutes a game, especially if LeVert stays), he'll be basically a spot-up shooter. Maybe he catches up with the DI game as a junior or senior and shows more, but I wouldn't count on too much too soon from him. If LeVert leaves, Walton, Albrecht and MAAR will be our rotation at the 1/2 (like it or not), with Irvin, Dawkins, Chatman and Robinson working at the 3/4. Wilson will not play the 4. What time he gets next season will be backing up Doyle as the one big on the floor. I'd be very surprised if we play more than token minutes with two bigs on the floor at once. That's just not Beilein, and we don't have that much talent in the frontcourt, anyway.

I have seen Duncan bust up his teammates a couple of times this year. He is one of the top 2 or 3 players on the roster. He will play for than 5 minutes a game. Starter or getting starter minutes.

Care to share which teammates? Because honestly, if he isn’t ‘busting up’ Walton or MAAR then I don’t put much stock into that because outside of those 2 we are a pretty poor defensive team. Don’t know if it was you, but I recall preseason practice reports that Doyle was ‘beasting’ Donnal. I was skeptical then, and in retrospect I think we can all agree that was more of an indictment on Donnal than anything Ricky had going

I suspect Robinson will play more than 5 minutes per game. Just a couple weeks ago Beilein referred to him as a ‘rotation player’ I believe, which generally means more than 5 mpg.

If memory serves, Beilein was quoted as saying that he told Robinson if he worked on his handle and improved it, he would give him a shot at the 2. I expect that he will play the 3 this year as a gunner off the bench (much like Irvin a year ago). I think his playing time will be determined by his defensive ability.

6’8" 45% 3PT Shooter. That’s an exciting piece. Even if it’s just for 15-18min per game.

6'8" 45% 3PT Shooter. That's an exciting piece. Even if it's just for 15-18min per game.

If he shoots 45% next year I will be ecstatic. A lot of it is predicated upon Levert returning. Robinson may very well be in the 40% range with Caris able to create clean looks for him, but I’d be surprised if he shot 40+ without Caris. Release is just too slow to shoot that high a clip against contested looks

Good point on Caris’ creation ability. Caris had really poor assist numbers earlier this season, but there was a stretch where nobody else on the team could really make a shot.

With Dawkins/Robinson as potentially reliable knock down guys, they could make it easier for not just Caris, but Derrick and Zak to expand their game as creators.

Dawkins shot 43.9% on threes without Caris to create for him. A lot of his threes came off various screen actions and transition.

Dawkins shot 43.9% on threes without Caris to create for him. A lot of his threes came off various screen actions and transition.

Yes, and we saw Zak really expand his game as a creator over these last few weeks. Part of that is individual development, but another part is that Dawkins had emerged as a deadly 3-point option over the last couple weeks of the season.

Well, we also heard Jordan Morgan talk up how great Donnal was doing in practice, so you have to take coaching hype and teammate hype with a shaker of salt. If Robinson actually were one of the top 2 or 3 players on the team, and a starter, that’d either be really, really good or really, really bad…just not sure which yet. But he’s not going to be shooting 45% on threes against the Big Ten. If I had to predict, I’d say he’ll remind us of a tall Matt Vogrich next year, at least to start. He’ll knock down a three or two when we can get him open looks, but he won’t have enough of a game to create his own shots very often. How fast he comes along remains to be seen, but he’s not going to be out there 15-20 minutes a game.

Dawkins shot 43.9% on threes without Caris to create for him. A lot of his threes came off various screen actions and transition.

Big difference in release quickness and verticality on the jumpshot. Dawkins has a true jumpshot, which is ideal for coming off screens and shooting, whereas Duncan basically has a set shot, which is not conducive to coming off screens and shooting. Duncan is very much the stand in the corner/wing and shoot from a stagnant position type in my opinion…don’t think he’s the type to come off pin downs because his release is too slow and he does not elevate very well.

Not be optimistic all the time, but when I hear good things about a guy that can shoot and has size, then he will get playing time at UM. Haven’t heard much about his defense, rebounding or ballhandling, but I’m expecting 15-25 mins… Closer to the latter without Caris or top recruit, or some shocking improvement from Chatman or Wilson.

I suspect Robinson will play more than 5 minutes per game. Just a couple weeks ago Beilein referred to him as a 'rotation player' I believe, which generally means more than 5 mpg.

Did Beilein consider Donnal a rotation player at 10mpg even though there were some nights he didn’t get off the bench much? I don’t know what to expect with Robinson but it’s certainly wait and see.

Interesting question on Donnal. He started the first ten games of the season and played double digit minutes only 7 times once Big Ten play hit.

Max Bielfeldt had a DNP in the season opener (and Michigan basically emptied its bench) and then finished the season as a starter.

The probably got more from Max then they ever expected, but also expected much more from Donnal. I’m sure he would have classified Donnal as a rotation player, but almost out of necessity as there weren’t any other centers on the roster.

One other important element of Robinson’s game is that he can pass the ball and is familiar with the offense. Up until the last couple games, many of the freshmen struggled to make the read and pass. Aubrey Dawkins’ assist rate was lower this season than Zak Irvin’s last year… and that’s saying something.

Here’s the tweet I was referencing above
“Beilein says Duncan Robinson is a quality passer and will help offense beyond shooting last year. Confident he’ll crack rotation.”