Will Michigan's "three point defense" improve?


I know the studies back it up, but I really hope the guys on this team don’t go home thinking “wow we are just so unlucky they make everything every game!”


I mean would you really expect anything else from this team?



Illinois played lights out, so there’s some tipping of the cap in order. And teams continue to make shots/open shots at a higher clip against us compared to their season averages. But what sucked was watching the lack of of effort and passion, and then the tear-your-hair-out defensive gaffes.

But I just shrug when Morgan and Nichols are hitting the midrange J at like a 70% clip. Whatever, we deserved it.


Interesting watching last nights game with my son who was a pretty good 3 point shooter in high school. He said that even though some of the 3 point shots look contested at times, they actually are not and the close outs are so late that there is nothing blocking their vision to the hoop until the ball is already released. It is almost like they want it to look like they are contesting 3 pointers, but are a split second to late to be effective.


Exactly. ToledoUMfan.

There are many gradations of wide open. Any meaningful evaluation of a 3 point defense necessarily needs to account for proximity beyond the simplistic divisions of 1)“wide open” and 2) “contested”.

For a college level three point shooter the difference between wide open, open, barely contested, and lightly contested are about the same in terms of difficulty. Dakich mentions this every game–a lightly contested shot is like a “sight on a gun”.

Per Kenpom’s theory, Michigan has a decent 3 point defense amongst big ten teams.


I love Kenpom. I won quite a few brackets challenges by studying his site 15 years ago for way too many hours… HIs expressed opinions on 3 point defense is fun conversation starter but he oversimplifies the issues involved. There are a lot of factors… It is a mistake to look at a team that has a low number of 3 pointers against And to assume, conclude, or even be confident that it means that particular team is good at defending the three.



I mean… this isn’t really a debate. I provided to you many sources from people who have done the math and the evidence far outweighs your thoughts on it. Using the kenpom theory, aside from the analysis done on it by him and others, is also using simple logic of opportunity and definitely provides the best explanation. He has said Kentucky and Baylor are exceptions to the rule in that the opponent shoots a lower percentage consistently and maybe we’re the same on the opposite end, but that does not invalidate the reasoning behind what he says. There’s probably 5 teams a year where this is the case. I won’t keep debating this with you after this comment but trust me, you’re not going to convince the people here who understand what Pomeroy is saying that you’re correct.


Michigan’s 3 point defense was so bad that Illinois players were banking in their 3s!



I understand what Pomeroy is saying.

There is nothing complicated about what he is saying.


Geez, I thought you just didn’t get what he was saying. You actually got it and STILL try and deny it? Yikes, I really can’t do anything more…


I think Michigan is such an outlier as far as three point defense because the two point shots are so easy to get. So if you’re getting an easy layup every time down the floor, you’re less likely to shoot threes lol.


I know you were making a half-joke but there is probably a half-truth to what you are saying…

“3 point attempts against” occur within a context which is unique to each team. How other teams GAMEPLAN against Michigan is going to have a huge effect on the number of 3 point attempts against us. I imagine most teams are looking to attack early against Wilson off the dribble and early against Wagner on the low block. Why? 2 fouls and you sit. Wagner is thought to be our biggest offensive threat, prone to foul trouble, and not a good defender. Wilson is probably best at contesting 3’s on our team. Why not dribble drive against DJ to try to draw a foul? Wilson has the most minutes in the big ten for a reason. JB wants to keep DJ on the floor and opposing coaches want to get him off the floor.


In all honesty, I think both sides are right and wrong. It doesn’t matter how wide open some of these looks are, teams are uncharacteristically drilling them.

I could be way off here, but heck, the 3p B1G percentage against right now is approaching some typical games free throw percentage against. It’s not exactly THAT far off, so yeah, luck has song to do with it.


Michigan’s lack of defense is reaching historic levels; here’s how and why


This is ridiculous




The step back, contested long 2s don’t fall under the statistic, but still an infuriating anomaly


This is just pure lol territory


On the broadcast, they showed a replay of another off-the-dribble late 3 of Watson’s and Bardo said something like, “well, that was great D by Walton, right there with a hand in his face.”

I actually thought UM got “luckier” today than a couple recent times as they left McVeigh open after he hit a couple.

As for those contested 2pt jumpers just inside the line – those are shots you beg other teams to take. As I’ve said elsewhere, it’s all a lot more fun though when you win.