Well the argument is:
Simpson was nearly our entire offense and Teske was nearly our entire defense with Simpson.
We gained a starter level player that doesn’t replace either
An up-transfer from an absolutely terrible team, which are not to be totally trusted
And a good freshman C
All Dylan is arguing is that they should be in the 2nd tier. Based on that it would not be at all wrong to think the team could be worse than last year.
I’m guessing these national guys looked at last years B1G standings and went from there, basically forgetting a chunk of our losses came when Livers was injured. That would explain most of it. “Oh this 9-9 team lost 2 really big pieces”
I’m interested that you say that about their defense so factually with Tillman being gone. They are without a doubt elite defensively in the backcourt but I think you’d agree that the 5 spot is the most important defensively in the college game. Thoughts on how Tillman’s departure impacts them defensively?
Loss of TIllman definitely hurts. He was the best defensive player in the league I think the perimeter defense with Watts/Henry/Langford is really strong though.
For comparison, I think Bingham/Sissoko have waaay more defensive upside at the five than Dickinson/Davis.
Which is why Johns needs to be the 5 man!! Tell Juwan!
One thing I’ve learned, Freshmen are hit or miss in the Major conferences, especially the B1G. Mostly not ready for the physical grind and the last four minutes of play. My biggest concerns, team defense and three point shooting. With that said, it’s not where you start but where you finish that matters most!
3 point shooting should be better than last year given who we lost although Simpson quietly shot a very solid % last year. Teske not insisting on throwing up 2 or 3 threes a game when he’s clearly a terrible shooter will help.
The question is who can create open threes for guys?
If Isaiah gets 25% fewer clean catch and shoot threes per game, what does that do to his shooting numbers? Etc.
Sissoko will be a freshman. Izzo+freshman=Ben Carter in the tournament.
I do believe that Izzo has earned the benefit of the doubt. That didn’t mean it was any less fun when under Beilein we were right the offseason about how MSU was overrated and UM underrated. Beilein had earned it by then but never got it. I want Michigan to be a program that has high expecations and works toward them, but it’s still fun to be underrated and outdo expectations.
But that’ll give us a sense of how it’ll be under Juwan unless he starts pulling in the five-star recruits that those national writers know by name. I think the coach is different but the outcome is the same: Michigan will outperform expectations most years, and MSU will not. In the offseason people will look at the holes on Michigan’s roster and lower expectations, but will not do so for MSU even though Izzo has a very long track record of doing poorly when relying on younger players. This isn’t going to change. Rocket Watts is still going to be seen as the ``breakout player of the year’’ as Franz Wagner has a more breakouty season. Is what it is.
Has Michigan been notably underrated in recent years? IIRC they were picked something like 4th or 5th last year and 2nd the year before.
Pretty regularly in particular in comparison to MSU. At least that’s my recollection. Even in the painful year in which we went 0-3 against them. IIRC OSU was rated ahead of them two years ago preseason.
MSU has won the league three years in a row. Don’t think it is possible to be over valued in preseason expectations.
Here are 2019-20 projections:
Here are the 2018-19 projections:
Picked 5th in the media poll in 2017-18 (LOL NW)
I do believe that the narrative of getting preseason disrespect is fair to an extent
but the '13 and '14 teams got plenty of preseason respect, and the '19 team was still ranked 19th in preseason. And those teams were clearly the 3 best regular season teams
Agreed for the most part, except last year’s team was preseason #1 and the title favorite, yet needed a Maryland end of season collapse to get a share of the title and was likely going to finish the season with double digit losses.
That being said I have no problem with MSU a tier ahead of Michigan and Michigan around the 8 spot preseason. I personally am skeptical of the Henry/Watts duo being successful over the course of the season, but if people are buying that duo/MSU as a whole I think that’s very reasonable.
I am not totally sold on IU being placed above Michigan. Jackson-Davis is their star and they return good players, but no one else jumps off the page. Until they show they can shoot, IU will struggle. They have decent freshman coming in but again, will they be able to shoot like they did in HS.
Izzo has earned the benefit of the doubt and I would personally put them higher than Michigan just based on how much variability I see in the outcomes for each team.
However…I don’t think the teams are that different entering the season:
So I’ll give MSU the nod for the top tier over Michigan, but the only one of those bullets that stands out to me as a clear advantage is the last one. Depth and role players favors MSU.
Add in coaching and MSU getting the definitive advantage seems fair to me. Which is where most media members are probably at.
I’ll take Smith + Brown over Hauser. Smith’s a wild card to be sure, but the ceiling for what they could add this season is high. Crossing my fingers that Brown is eligible.
I think it is fair to say that a sit out transfer like Hauser or Sueing should probably be a bit ahead of a waiver or grad transfer though.