The five factors that will determine our ceiling this year

We won’t play a PF and C at the same time because we don’t have a PF position in our offense. Two guards, two wings, a center.

Wilson will be out there at the same time as a center this season. How much depends on how well he plays. Irvin is still gonna get his 30/35 minutes per game. If Wilson is competent this season, Irvin will be able to play a few minutes at the 3. But I’m not counting on it.


Something also to take note of: Anthony Wright mentioned a couple weeks ago that Ibi would only play one of the 2/3 spot. He says it’s impossible for a freshman to reasonably learn both positions on offense. So our depth at each spot is likely

Guard - Walton, Rahk, Xavier
Forward - Irvin, Robinson, Wilson, Ibi
Center - Wagner, Donnal, Teske

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I would be very surprised if Ibi played somewhere other than the 3. Michigan needs more depth there and I think Walton, Rahk and Simpson can easily fill the 80 minutes at the 1/2.

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I feel like we need it at both. One injury and Dakich is playing again. :confused: But yeah, it does seem like he’ll be exclusively a 3.

Although thinking about it, I guess they might just have Irvin play 2 on offense in three forward lineups if an injury happens.

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Yep – Irvin as played the two at least for stretches and knows the offense, he would be the emergency two guard so to speak.

Talking about the rotation though, you don’t really consider injuries. You look at the minutes and there are 80 guard minutes, so you look at probably a 30-30-20 split to start?

On the wing you have Irvin and Robinson taking the bulk of the minutes, but those 10 to 15 minutes at the backup four are what’s up for grabs. Does Watson play well and push Duncan over to the four during those stretches? Does Wilson improve? That’s the question in the rotation IMO.

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A wing grad transfer sure would’ve been nice. I definitely see why Michigan was a tough landing spot to sell: 5 starters returning. But if we could be confident that we were getting adequate bench minutes from the 3-4, either from the transfer or from Duncan, then our depth concerns are mostly wiped away. There’s a lot resting on the development of DJ/the emergence of Ibi.

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Yes and no, as you say w/r/t recruiting grad transfers we’re probably talking about a 10-15 minute per game role.

I’m gonna guess DJ (althought Wright seemed to think it would be Ibi in the rotation) on that one. No matter how meh DJ might be this year, I think the fact that he can spell Irvin at the 4 and provide some defense just by being tall is likely more valuable than what Ibi brings as a poor man’s Dawkins.

True. But those 10-15 minutes can be the difference in close games, games with foul trouble, and the difference between Zak playing with dead legs at the end of the season. This might be typical pre-season-over-thinking, because I really like our first 7 rotation players. I’d like to think that the production level difference between Zak and DJ is much lower than the difference between Walton and Dak (which X will hopefully remedy).

That was last year. This is a new year and a new team. Beilein doesn’t need Wilson to play any minutes at the 5 because he has 4 other guys to do that. Wilson will be a full time 4. How much he plays will depend on how well he performs.

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I’ll say it again-it doesn’t matter whether you call what Wilson is playing a 4 or a 5, because he’ll be the only big out there when he plays. And it doesn’t matter if you look at last year, or the year before that, or the year before that, or the year before that. Beilein plays all his bigs combined at right about 40 minutes a game. He does not play two bigs at once for any meaningful stretch of time, and there is no reason to think that will change this season.

Wilson is going to play the wing this season.

“That’s where he’s going to be – he’s going to be on the wing,” Beilein said. “That’s the only plan. He actually can play both wings. He’s evolved in practice.”


As Dylan pointed out, you’re wrong. Wilson will start out as a four. Guarantee his first minutes this season come at the four (barring injuries to Donnal and/or Wagner). Whether he gets significant minutes there as the season goes on is a different matter. But at this point in time, Wilson is a four. But continue to argue against reason.

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Where did I say Wilson was sure to play the 5? Nowhere. You made that up. I said, call what he’s playing a 4 if you want, but that doesn’t change the fact that Beilein does not play a 4 and a 5 at the same time. He just doesn’t. It also doesn’t change the fact that Wilson just isn’t that good anyway. As the article linked to said, he needs to improve his rebounding, his shot selection, his ball handling and his decision making in order to earn significant playing time anywhere but in blowouts. You can probably add defense in there, too. That’s a lot of areas to improve for a guy who’s going into his third year.

The numbers are just a subjective designation. In JB"s offense, the 3 & 4 are wings (which I’ve already stated). So yes, JB does play a four a five at the same time. You are making the subjective decision to say that 4=power forward. 4 can equal whatever hte offense deems it to be. It’s a wing for us. So yes, Wilson will be out there with Donnal or Wagner - at least at the beginning of the season. He may or may not chip in at the 5. If he plays the 5 at all, he’ll be the only “big” out there. But he will start out at the four. Which means he will be out there with our 5s.


I am confused.

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@MChem83: What are you trying to say? Wilson will be a four, but not really a four because he doesn’t do what you think a PF should do?

Beilein plays one big at a time, whether you call the one who is out there at any one moment a 4 or a 5. Or a PF or a C, for those who get confused by the numbers. Assuming Davis doesn’t play, there are those 4 guys to split up ~40 minutes of PT per game.

JB plays wings and a big at the same time and JB considers DJ a wing.

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I’m saying Wilson is a big. He’s not a small forward like Irvin. Whether you call him a C or a PF doesn’t really matter much, because he hasn’t shown the skill set to play ANY position at an acceptable level when it matters. I’m saying that Beilein historically does not play two bigs at the same time, and that there is no reason to expect to see Wilson out there with Wagner or Donnal this year, either.