NBA Draft Projections & Mock Drafts 2019

Michigan Basketball
444

If I’m a coach, damn skippy I’m going to balance the discussion. As a parent of 3 college graduates and one still at UM, I value not just the degree but the college experience. Stuff you can’t put a dollar figure on and can’t necessarily appreciate until you get old and have kids yourself.

As a college athlete you add much more to the calculus. Stuff like winning championships, leaving a legacy, being big man on campus, bunch of intangibles that ought to be described to a guy who again might not come to it on his own.

That to me is not playing to emotions inappropriately, that’s the type of stuff that all parents/coaches who aren’t just about chasing money and wealth should at least lay on the table. Might it be self serving? Sure. But it doesn’t have to be and I’ve never been a shoot the messenger type of guy.

I get that a lot of people prioritize getting the riches. They can be about that at their choosing. I start with a different priority and work from there. And not expressing those priorities would be a dereliction of my responsibilities as a parent imo.

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445

With the nbas expanded roster spots going as a second rounder makes more sense now than it ever has.

446

While it’s definitely true second round contracts have gotten much better, I disagree you should go as a second rounder. There’s so much competition for those spots.

You can be in and out of the G league in a year or two, staring down playing overseas or questioning what to do in the US if NBA isn’t an option. That’s where the degree is going to be needed.

447

That essentially happened to Darius Morris, and he still made 2.4 million dollars. Way more than a lot of people make in a lifetime. If he wants to go back to get his degree he can easily pay for it

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448

Yeah, almost certainly. Players of about equal talent seem much more likely to hang on an extra year at State, even when they aren’t likely to improve much in the eyes of the NBA. Marginal draft picks who haven’t even had one really good full college season are much more likely to leave Michigan than State.

449

If he saved it, or most of it, yeah it worked out well for Morris.

I called out it was a mistake in the above post because he had a very strong chance to be a first rounder the following year. He would’ve made more money than what’s in his pocket and took on a huge risk of going as a second rounder.

For every second rounder that “makes it”, you’re going to find a heck of a lot more that don’t. By their upper 20s or age 30, I can imagine it’s really hard to figure out next steps in life at that point.

I know some people do it but I also think it’s really hard mentally to try and go back to get a degree. Once you’re done with school, even those that just went for school, it’s hard to turn the switch back on and go back.

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450

My only qualm here is that any one who has a “strong chance to be a first rounder the following year” probably has a decent chance of realizing some of that potential if they work with NBA coaches, etc. for a year, etc.

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451

Not that it really matter but MSU won the Big Ten by a game last season (as opposed to three). Also, where are those Winston quotes? All I saw was that he said he needed to talk with his family before making any decisions on his future.

452

Actually the NCAA makes it a lot easier for a player that remains in good academic standing and doesn’t leave after one semester ( true one dones) to take their swing in professional basketball until that is not an option anymore and come back to get their degree. Assuming a player like Cassius is in good academic standing, he could in theory go play in the NBA or overseas for 5, 6 years, or whatever and come back to finish his degree later in life under scholarship per the newer NCAA scholarship polocies.

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453

Ah, thanks. I think I mis-remembered the 3 games based on where Michigan finished.

Brendan Quinn had a nice article on the Athletic. Winston talks about his potential impact next season and has a quote saying something along the lines of his numbers next year might not be as crazy, because more players are coming back, but his impact will be the same.

454

Yeah great point. I agree.

Typically those type of players are probably in that third bullet of an extremely tough decision to stay or go too.

Let’s just assume you declare and go early second round instead of late first, then you get (presumably better like you said) NBA development, first year of NBA accrual and get paid but less money/guarantees and less security. You could’ve gone back, got “enough” development in one more year of college to sneak into the first (or higher), get the larger contract and guaranteed money, but be behind a year in accrual, money earned and development. Both risk and reward options.

That’s a hell of a difficult choice, a life altering choice. I don’t envy those having to make it and I can’t imagine how tough that is to make when you’re a fringe first rounder.

455

You have more of the details, Silverblue, but this was what I was trying to imply. Izzo pressures them to stay; John very equably tries to figure out what’s best for them.

Until last night I thought that Tillman might be heading. But we saw some of the limitations of his game. . . Unfortunately, I think that Winston can increase his standing with another year. He could be quite dominant if he comes back, whereas I see him being a fun journeyman NBA guy if he goes. I believe he can stick, but not with nearly the glory he can enjoy in another year of college.

456

Oh definitely. You can absolutely always go back and you’ll either have money to pay for it or have the NCAA pay for it like you called out.

My argument was more it’s really tough to actually go back after any certain number of years. To which, it most likely gets harder the more years you’re away.

457

It depends though. There is usually more value (basketball-wise) in staying for your sophomore year than your senior year. There is a bit of a stigma attached to four-year guys nowadays, and even without that, a guy who’s been starting in college for 3 years probably doesn’t have much more upside. The main benefit for that guy to staying is that he gets to play one more year of college basketball. (And graduate, yes, but that can be done in the NBA offseason.)

The other thing is that second-round picks aren’t all the same. Some are promised in advance by NBA teams that they’ll draft them then if available while others go in blind. Obviously you want to be in the former category as it suggests you’ll probably make the team.

458

I think the extremely serious sexual assault scandal at MSU is best removed from an (extremely) partisan sports message board that is in part devoted to a sports rivalry. Bringing up the beating and rape of a number of women, here, in literally the same breath as a completely unrelated thing (Miles Bridge’s decision to stay) has the effect of leveling the severity of the things.

The rape and beating of women is not something that will be remedied by a losing streak on the basketball court, and bringing it up within that contex immediately trivializes it. There are lots of places where bringing the scandal up is appropriate - a discussion about the draft decisions of MSU players ain’t it.

This board is saner than most, but I don’t think a basketball website is, or should be, capable of rationally discussing such a thing.

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459

Morris wasn’t going to fix that broke jumper with another year in college. I think his stock stays relatively the same if not gets worse. He was chosen by his hometown LA Lakers. I doubt he regrets the decision. He wasn’t a long term pro no matter how many years he stayed a Michigan. I think he made the correct choice

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460

@jemblue I personally think the age argument gets overblown a bit with the draft. It seems like it only really matters for lotto picks extended out to maybe the 20 range. Outside of that, older four year players can definitely still get picked in the first round AND still have plenty of room to develop.

Look at the Lakers as an example, specifically Kyle Kuzma. Four year player who was drafted at age 22. (They also took Hart first round at age 22.) Kuzma’s hype died down a little bit this year but he was/still is talked about as having tons of untapped potential and development in the NBA. Not a superstar potential like lotto picks but all-star caliber player and solid #2/3 type player.

@bacon141 Yeah his shot was definitely ugly ha, but even with slight-to-no improvement, I imagine another year of hype/exposure and numbers put up would’ve gotten him into the first round. That’s my guess anyway, but maybe as you said scouts saw otherwise.

461

Also, is he going to keep trey Burke off the floor?

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462

This is why I have great respect for you, Dot, and I always have. Excellent post!

Paragraph one. I absolutely agree. The college experience is incredibly important I think. I would prefer kids got that experience for four years rather than just one or two, but I’m pretty much just a stuffy old guy who recognizes that those times and the memories one derives from them are truly priceless.

Paragraph two. Again, I think you’re right. These are all important. I would only say, and I’m probably sounding like a broken record, if they are valuable for one or two years, then why not three or four. But again, and it’s just my opinion, the decision to stay and have that great experience and have those memories becomes MUCH more difficult with the insane amount of money being thrown at them. And I suppose that’s good…and bad.

I DO think it is important for young people to have folks in their lives that can help them weigh the enormity of the decision they have to make in that regard. A coach is an extremely valuable asset to that player and his family. I would hope all coaches are honest and sincere in their counsel of players and that the motives of those coaches are pure and are not based on their own self interest. All options should be laid on the table, honestly, fairly, completely, transparently.

Paragraph three. I do think some coaches play on emotion. I think Coach Izzo is one of them. Unlike others, I am not going to criticize him for that. As you know, he is a VERY emotional guy. Emotion is part of who he is, part of his psyche. It is a large part of why he is Tom Izzo. It’s part of why he can get, almost violently, in a kid’s face one moment and have his arm around that same kid moments later. It’s why kids love him. And they do.

Does he use that to keep them in school. I don’t know. If he does, is it a conscious thing. I don’t know that either, but if he does, if it conscious, then I think it’s emotional manipulation. Just my opinion. I know that most of his players love him. I DO know that. I don’t know if he uses that to get them to do what HE wants them to do.

Paragraph four. Yes, a lot of people seem to “prioritize getting the riches.” Again, it is hard for me to truly understand that mindset because that’s not who I am or anything that I ever, well since I was about 22, anything that I’ve ever really cared about.

After what I describe as almost an epiphany, at the age of 21 or 22, I decided to become a public school teacher and coach, something I NEVER would have considered prior to that. Getting rich was certainly NOT part of the plan. So, I really struggle with the notion that’s “it’s about the money.” Again, that’s me, and I really don’t want to argue with anyone about it. My priority is no one else’s, it’s only my own. I do realize that my point of view is not the popular one these days, though.

I WILL say this, I have written and I have spoken on the topic of, “Teaching and Coaching, the GREATEST profession I could have ever chosen.” Life worked well for me, though now that I have a “special” needs granddaughter who needs therapies her parents simply can’t afford and for which insurance will not pay, I sometimes question myself as to whether it wouldn’t be REALLY nice to have a lot more money, and could that have happened if I had chosen another path. But that’s another subject.

I appreciated your comment Dot, and I have GREAT respect for your opinion and your knowledge! Thank you.

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463

Heck of a question knowing what we know now. No idea truthfully.

Best guess would be Trey sees the floor enough taking minutes from both Douglass and Morris.