Why would I deny saying that?
NBA also doesn’t have them. I don’t know if it would necessarily favor Michigan, as the advantage you describe would probably be offset by our high usage of threes.
I don’t have time to discuss this much more until tonight, but I think you have to work through your thinking on this topic a little bit.
I have not flip flopped at all.
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If you think that a missed 1-and-1 is equivalent to a turnover and a missed Stauskas three isn’t, then you are mathematically challenged. You lose 0.133 more points of expected value on a missed three from him, especially an open one, than you do from a 1-and-1 (assuming the free throw calculation was correct). When you factor in rebounding rate it’s probably about the same. Again, it’s stupid to try and compare them though, just like it’s dumb to compare turnovers with an expected value of 0.00 every time to any shot, which automatically has an expected value greater than zero. That’s all I’ll say.
Where did this even come from?
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As for setting defense - (a) coaches have a choice on where to put everybody but the shooter. In the late game situations you seem to focus on, JB often does move all other four players back. But assuming you put 1 or 2 guys in for rebounds, the benefit still exists but is partial – you get to set up part of your defense.
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As for the missed front end being not completely identical to a TO – your original post said that a missed front end should be counted as a TO (as opposed, presumably, to other missed shots). Then you said they’re “almost identical.” Now you seem to indicate that while a missed front end is an undesirable outcome, it should not be counted as a TO and is not identical. So it seems like we’re pretty much in agreement. Have a good one.
My whole point is that it’s an undervalued negative. That’s the point and the takeaway. It’s a free(ish, fine) defensive stop. I know that when my team gets off the hook from a guy missing a front end, it feels like a free stop. I know that one team just handed the other team a super easy defensive possession - maybe even easier than a turnover, because some of those are forced. I know that when my team misses the front end, it’s a boost for the opposition. I think this is a valid point. There also seem to be people in this thread who don’t understand why the word “free” appears before “throw” and are therefore making very strange comparisons and I think that this is for sure the last I’m going to say on this topic.
It’s an interesting idea. I would note that the miracle against Kansas would not have been possible without the 1 and 1 rule. And we were down to the point where our only chance at survival was either a very unlikely turnover or a missed front end.
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