Maybe i am undervaluing some of IU’s pieces but i get a strong feeling that IU will resemble LSU (w Simmons) and Washington (w Fultz). I dont actually expect those levels of ineptitude but more of lack of cohesion from the team and under performance.
What’s the reasoning there? They have a better coach, an All-Big Ten player already on the roster, were pretty strong defensively last year. PG is the one big issue though.
(As long as you can play him at center and not try to force him on the court next to Xavier Tillman )
I like MSU’s class. It doesn’t have as many instant impact guys as they are used to, but if you swapped MSU’s and UM’s classes, I wouldn’t be devastated, just slightly disappointed. I like ours better, but if we had MSU’s class, I think most would be excited and still think we have momentum as a program
What separates M from Nebraska and Wisconsin is John Beilein. Huge advantage. If Bo Ryan were still coach of Wisconsin I’d feel differently.
I like Indiana a lot too Dylan but not to win it. They will be right there though. It wouldn’t shock me if they did though.
A few things here:
a) I dont buy that Archie Miller is a great coach yet. Not saying that he isnt, I just havent seen enough for me feel confident in his abilities and to this team at least equal to the sum of its parts.
b) Juwan Morgan will be good; Romeo Langford will be good; I dont buy anyone else on the team quite yet. They only return one double digit scorer from a team that was mediocre last year (Morgan). I can see the appeal of seeing potential in Hunter and think that he will be problem for Michigan in the future, but I think that he will have some growing pains this year. Per my LSU reference before, is 2018-19 IU (3 wings of Morgan, freshman Langford, and freshman Hunter with no legit PG) better than 2015-16 LSU (freshmen Simmons, Blakeney, Sampson [4* guy who didn’t end up doing much] & senior Hornsby)? I look at those rosters and would take LSU – especially with Simmons able to do so much for that LSU team. I am just not sold on relying that heavy on freshman to make up all that production outside of Morgan, especially if only one of them is 5*.
c) I dont see how their offense will necessarily progress and be run if those Morgan and Langford are the focus points. Can either run the show? I don’t get the impression that either will facilitate an offense.
At the end of the day, I think that IU is just a few nice looking pieces but I don’t see cohesion. I am not sold on the coaching to pull it together and I think that they are an awfully young and raw team.
I think comparing Johnny Jones to Archie Miller is just unfair.
Indiana was also very good defensively last year in the Big Ten too (fourth in the conference) despite being pretty average.
I didnt compare Jones to Miller, I compared the rosters. I completely agree that Miller is preferred over Jones, but let’s not act like Miller has proven a whole lot as a coach yet.
Defense is definitely something that I didnt consider. I will curious how that translates to this year. Do they return much of their presence like Michigan does?
I have no idea who were good and bad defenders on IU, but Morgan has a pretty good block rate. They lose their starting backcourt (Robert Johnson and Josh Newkirk) as well as some backup forwards
Archie is a guy who has generally had better defenses than offenses. He plays guys who are generally better on defense than offense, someone like McRoberts last year.
I’m pretty confident that their defense will only improve considering that last year was his first year and IU improved from the worst defense in the Big Ten under Crean to the 4th best.
I’m banking on the offense improving via one of the best scoring freshmen in the country.
I’m not sold on Archie Miller either. He could very well be quite good, but he hasn’t proven it yet. He got a lot of mileage out of one NCAA run to the E8 – which included a 2pt S16 victory over Cuse where Dayton shot 7-16 from 3 and Cuse shot 0-10.
These are Archie Miller’s bartrovik ADJD ranks: 162, 145, 75, 50, 11, 59, 63. Again, they could be a defensive force, but I’m not sure that’s a sure bet.
IU could have a big year, and Miller could be a force for a long time. But it also wouldn’t be that surprising if they finish 4th-6th, lose in the first weekend, they’re a bubble team the next year when Langford and Morgan are gone, and he’s coaching for his job the next year.
I think a lot of people forget just how down the talent level of the Big Ten has gotten since the 2012-ish years. I feel like Langford is set up to make a much bigger impact on Indiana’s success than many here seem to believe.
Yeah, if you’re bullish on IU that’s definitely what you’re thinking, and it very well could be right. I haven’t seen enough of Langford to know, and not every top-10 guy who comes in is able to carry on offense.
I am still having a hard time understanding your rationale for IU > Michigan (I know, showing my true homerism):
a) Michigan returns more core components to a better defense than IU does
b) While folks can argue that Miller is a great coach and is certainly trending in the correct direction, I am not sure how Michigan having Beilien (especially with Yaklich) is not considered to be the superior coaching staff
c) IU certainly has one of the best scoring freshman in Langford and that will certainly elevate them. Iggy is going to be a shot of instant offense as well for Michigan. Langford, by all accounts, is certainly superior but is the margin between the two that great? Does that margin make of the difference for the other weapons that Michigan has with Poole and Matthews?
I feel pretty strongly that Michigan minus Iggy is far superior on offense to IU minus Langford, and cant see how the delta between Iggy and Langford would warrant taking IU over Michigan with consideration to points a) and b) above.
I havent looked at conference schedules too much yet. Is any of your reasoning based on those, or just at looking at which teams you think will be the best?
I didn’t necessarily analyze the schedule to make my picks. Probably lazy, but it was just a preseason poll
As a biased IU fan I would defend umhoops selection based on a few things
The team had 3 glaring holes last year. Reliable PG, scoring and outside shooting. Archie addressed the last 2. We have 3 possible PGs and I gotta think that all will be better than josh newkirk.
Favorable schedule. Get Illinois and Rutgers twice. As well as Iowa and Northwestern. And one of our toughest road games. You guys we get to play with students off campus. Every bit helps.
Insiders who correctly pegged some of our players development last year. Are bullish on Smith Green and Hunter. Smith especially played very well near the end of last season.
Deron Davis is back healthy or will be by the time big ten season rolls around.