MattD, do you agree with the B1G writers that Michigan will finish 5th behind MSU and Nebraska? Do you really believe that media polls influence perceptions of recruits towards Michigan? I doubt that it even influences public perceptions. Especially in Beilein’s case since he regularly exceeds pre-season expectations.
MattD, do you agree with the B1G writers that Michigan will finish 5th behind MSU and Nebraska? Do you really believe that media polls influence perceptions of recruits towards Michigan? I doubt that it even influences public perceptions. Especially in Beilein's case since he regularly exceeds pre-season expectations.
I’m not the one that made that made that assertion
I am not arguing Michigan is elite, which I define as Duke, UK, Kansas, and UNC. I am arguing that from 2012 (when Beilein got the recruits he needed to be a national contender) to 2017 we will be as successful as any Big Ten program, which will firmly put us in that “second tier” category. Do you disagree with that? If you do, give me your reasons. If not, I could care less that in year 2 or 3 of JB’s tenure, we weren’t as good as OSU or MSU. We are now. You think MSU football fans care that we beat them in 2007, and we were better that year? I doubt it. They rightly believe they will be among the top Big Ten teams moving forward.
What numerical range is in accord with your second tier?
Also - your “lets look at it from 2012 forward because UM finally attained talent” caveat really contradicts the notion that we don’t need to recruit at a high level because JB is great at “development”
MattD, do you agree with the B1G writers that Michigan will finish 5th behind MSU and Nebraska? Do you really believe that media polls influence perceptions of recruits towards Michigan? I doubt that it even influences public perceptions. Especially in Beilein's case since he regularly exceeds pre-season expectations.I’m not the one that made that made that assertion
Nice dodge. But here’s what you said:
“Picked 5th in the conference in B10 media poll. Hard to say we’re elite when expectations are to be middle of the pack.”
You point to that poll specifically so make the point that we are not elite. You may have been responding to the citation to the ESPN historical ranking of top programs ( a completely different kind of measure BTW), but you picked the poll that had us 5th to make your point. Maybe you’re hesitant to go on record about the upcoming B1G season.
Nice way to selectively quote me in an effort to discredit me and further your agenda.
Guess you must have missed my quote that publications/projections are meaningless.
Can’t say that I’m surprised
Nice way to selectively quote me in an effort to discredit me and further your agenda.Guess you must have missed my quote that publications/projections are meaningless.
Can’t say that I’m surprised
LOL. What’s my agenda? You didn’t just cite that poll and say, "See, here’s another poll with a different result, you can’t rely on polls to define “elite.” You said:
“Picked 5th in the conference in B10 media poll. Hard to say we’re elite when expectations are to be middle of the pack.”
You gave credence to that poll. You denigrated the ESPN historical poll (even though you’ve said that their player evaluations are the best) and cited the media poll as a source with credibility. So, again, do you think Michigan will finish 5th in the B1G?
We’re waiting…
MattD:
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I don’t think I contradict myself at all. In 2012, we finished tied for the Big Ten title with MSU and OSU. Both those teams were NCAA tournament #1 seeds, and we beat both at home that year. We did that starting Douglas and Novak (at the four, no less). We also did that with Horford missing the entire year due to injury. So yes, at the Big Ten level, I think JB can compete with the big dogs even without elite talent.
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Nationally, it’s a different story. The 2012 team dramatically overachieved, but no one reasonably thought it was capable of doing any damage in the NCAA tournament. At best, had we avoided the Ohio U upset, we make the Sweet Sixteen.
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It took adding Robinson, McGary, Levert, Stauskas, and Spike to become one of the top teams nationally in 2012-2013. That’s when this program reached its highest level, and that’s how it should be judged going forward - once JB has some top players in place, can he maintain Michigan basketball at the level of the top Big Ten powers (MSU, OSU, Wisconsin)? I assure you that’s what recruits will look at - they’re not going to say, “Well, I know you guys have been really good the past two years, but what about in 2008, when you weren’t as good as Ohio State?”
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Also, you need to distinguish between “elite talent” and “players ranked in the top 25 by Rivals/ESPN/Scout.” I do think we need elite talent to compete for national titles (not a real revelation), but I also think two things: (1) our staff is better at finding elite talent in the 50-unranked range than most others - see Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Levert, guys like Robinson and Irvin at the time we landed them, and even role players like Morgan and Spike; (2) our staff does a great job of taking guys in the 50-unranked range and developing them into stud players - again, see the list I described above - Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, Levert, etc. Gary Parrish (CBS writer) had a really good column on that recently and basically concluded NO ONE besides Beilein is taking kids in that range of rankings and turning them into first round picks.
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To be honest with you, I’m not even sure I understand your criticism. What is it, specifically? Do you just like to complain, and be a contrarian, or is there something specific you can point to? Is it that we can’t compete with Duke and Kansas for elite recruits? Certainly, you would have to concede we are in a much better position to do so right now than we were in 2007, when JB took over this program, right? I mean, we’re not elite in your eyes because for the past 15 years, our program has been awful, right? But since 2001, Amaker took the team to the tourney zero times, and JB has made it five times (out of seven, including four in a row), so you can’t blame JB for the program not being elite, right? If you want to lament the decline of the program from what it was during the early 1990s, when it was indisputably elite, I think the blame lies squarely at the feet of people like Tom Goss, Brian Ellerbe, Bill Martin (though he did at least hire Beilein), and Tommy Amaker. Certainly you can’t be complaining about the recent results on the court, can you? In 2012-13, we made the title game. Last year, after losing Trey, Tim and McGary for the whole season, we won the Big Ten (best conference, IMO) by 3 full games, secured a #2 seed, and made the Elite Eight where we lost on a buzzer beater. Wasn’t that a pretty darn successful season? And, if you’re right that we can’t compete with Duke and Kansas for elite recruits, then shouldn’t you like JB even more, since he has somehow found a way to be as good as any team on the court recently while not being able to pull in the very best talent? Half these teams you hold up as “elite” have been getting bounced early in the tourney (Duke lost to what, a #15 seed this year, and then also again in 2012?), and in some cases not even making it at all (UK in 2013).
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To me, it seems like your sole complaint - and the source of all your negativity - is that you don’t like the fact that we don’t play physical defense. What an utter waste of energy to be so negative over something that trivial. I mean, what team would you like to emulate? The only teams I can think of that (1) aren’t generally capable of getting great recruits, but (2) play really tough and physical defense are Pitt and Wisconsin. Is that who you want to be? All this negativity, and constant bickering with everyone on the board, is because you want us to play basketball like Pitt and Wisconsin? If not, then to quote Pete Carroll, “What’s your deal?”
More narrative buildingThe problem is that restricting it to the last 2 years is an attempt to turn a cheek to UM’s shitty years, which simply isn’t a fair analysis in the context of elite status. Bottom line is that 2 years isn’t a big enough sample.
Why should OSU/Matta be penalized for UMs shortcomings and JB’s failure to make UM a national contender in a more expedited fashion? Matta inherited a team on probation and immediately made OSU a contender.
So no, we can’t limit the analysis to your ideal world, it has to be fair across the board
Not taking any credit away from Matta, he has done a great job in Columbus. But he has little in state competition in terms of recruiting and Ohio is a talent rich in past 10 years.
Ultimately, guys, recruits – and everyone else – will view programs based on results (especially tournament results), not preseason polls. And TV appearances certainly don’t hurt, either. If Michigan wins another title, no one, obviously, will care it was picked fifth in a silly preseason poll.
LA - more contradiction; you state that nobody reasonably expected UM to make noise in the tourney, but yet on several occasions you have been personally guilty of using the “B10 is the best conference in the country” to support your contention that conference championships do mean something as it relates to UM. To that end, if you are the best team in the best conference, why shouldn’t you be expected to compete in the tourney?
To summarize here, my problem isn’t with the program/coaching/style per se, my problem (and I say this with all due respect) is people like you - in the sense that the constant hyperbole is all we get…some balance please.
If I had to compare you to somebody officially connected to UM, it would be Fred Jackson (RBs coach for football)…the guy has literally said that every UM RB since 07 is “Mike Hart but faster”…so at a certain point you just start to disregard what he says because you know that he is so biased he isn’t capable of thinking objectively.
I stated this to you previously…I have not once seen you agree with ANY criticism of the team/coaching/program. When I brought it to your attention, you basically said that “we came from the depths of hell and that’s why I appreciate JB/where we are now.”
I appreciate people like Jeff Clarke, because he will preface his statements by expressly stating that he is taking the optimistic approach rather than perhaps the more realistic approach. I can appreciate that and adjust my scrutiny of such opinions accordingly.
Personally, I would just like to see more balance and objectivity regarding the team/JB. Contrary to popular belief of many, there are actually some areas we need to improve upon, and if that is the case…there is room for criticism.
Nice way to selectively quote me in an effort to discredit me and further your agenda.Guess you must have missed my quote that publications/projections are meaningless.
Can’t say that I’m surprised
LOL. What’s my agenda? You didn’t just cite that poll and say, "See, here’s another poll with a different result, you can’t rely on polls to define “elite.” You said:
“Picked 5th in the conference in B10 media poll. Hard to say we’re elite when expectations are to be middle of the pack.”
You gave credence to that poll. You denigrated the ESPN historical poll (even though you’ve said that their player evaluations are the best) and cited the media poll as a source with credibility. So, again, do you think Michigan will finish 5th in the B1G?
No, specifically said that my main objective was to say that any given publication shouldn’t be weighted too heavily because for every publication claiming UM is top 10, there are 2 more that say we’re not. Everything else is just your preferred construction of what I said.
That being said, I can see UM finishing anywhere between 2 - 7. I think 7 -11 conference wins is the most likely scenario given what I know right now…which admittedly isn’t much because of all the unknowns in the frontcourt and rotation in general. We know we have an above average/good backcourt…but we don’t know much else. General rule of thumb is that a lot of question marks/uncertainty = not good. I’m going to stick by that rule with a slightly optimistic approach because the rest of the B10 save Wisc is also down, so it wont’ appear as bad as it may otherwise.
You do realize this is a blog for UM fans and this is the forum where people who are just fans post. What’s wrong with hyperbole, optimism, and excitement here. On the flip side it would also be expected for fans to be hyper-critical when things aren’t as rosy.
Posters shouldn’t have to preface that they are being overly optimistic to make you happy, it should be be pretty apparent and common.
Leave the realism to the coaches, analysts, and press.
It’s absurd to constantly get in arguments because you believe a fan is giving their program too much credit/praise.
You do realize this is a blog for UM fans and this is the forum where people who are just fans post. What's wrong with hyperbole, optimism, and excitement here. On the flip side it would also be expected for fans to be hyper-critical when things aren't as rosy. Posters shouldn't have to preface that they are being overly optimistic to make you happy, it should be be pretty apparent and common. Leave the realism to the coaches, analysts, and press. It's absurd to constantly get in arguments because you believe a fan is giving their program too much credit/praise.
Much the same that its absurd to constantly get in arguments because you believe an individual isn’t giving their program enough praise.
Objectivity
I disagree, you have to expect that to come with the territory.
Also I don’t believe you are as objective as you think you are.
And who cares about objectivity, why is it such a big deal to you?
I DO think I’m as objective as I claim.
Who cares that certain posters are fans, why is it such a big deal to you that people don’t care for homerism?
MattD - Here’s the problem I have with YOU. You act as if this program is winning 15 games every year. The reality is that during the past two years, we have won as many NCAA tourney games as ANY TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. Let that sink in.
Of course the coaching staff is not above criticism. Could we do some things better? Absolutely. We could rebound a lot better, and not just by inserting bigger players into the lineup when the size of the opposition warrants it, but by doing a much better job of boxing out. Our effort in that regard has, at times, been atrocious - the end-of-the-regular-season loss to Indiana in 2013 was a prime example.
I’d also say, for whatever reason, we are terrible at protecting big leads at the end of games. We let teams back in the game regularly, as evidenced most recently by the Tennessee NCAA tournament game where we had to hang on for dear life and got a lucky (albeit likely correct) charge call to end it.
I too would like to see us improve our size, and our ability to “go big” when necessary, and I think recruiting players like Doyle, Donnal, Wilson, and Teske will help us significantly in that regard. All of those guys are much higher rated recruits than Morgan, Horford and Bielfeldt were. We are improving when it comes to big man recruiting (and of course McGary was a huge get), but it hasn’t been real great. No doubt some of that is the result of the offense we play, which doesn’t feature big men (though I would argue DeShawn Sims got plenty of post up opportunities, so Coach B isn’t adverse to feeding the post if we have the talent for it). Nonetheless, of course it would be nice to be in the running for a Caleb Swanigan, and it would have been nice to land a Plumlee or someone like him along the way.
Do we have recruiting misses? Sure. Vogrich. Smote (more attitude problem than talent problem). Brundidge. We should have offered Larry Nance, Jr. and passed on Bielfeldt.
Again, though, when you look at the big picture, WINS are what matters, and this program is winning games. And developing NBA players.
My issue with you is that you have such a negative attitude, literally, when it comes to about 90% of what we do. You were sure Wilson wasn’t athletic at all (then softened your stance upon viewing more film). You are positive recruiting Duncan Robinson over Jalen Coleman is a terrible move. You are positive we can’t land elite recruits, and I guess you blame the coaching staff for that. When I bring up guys like McGary and Chatman - top 25 recruits that we landed against elite competition - you ignore the point entirely because it doesn’t fit your mantra that we are not as good as the top programs and can’t beat them out for recruits.
Given what this coaching staff has accomplished recently, I think it sounds idiotic, frankly, to second guess almost everything they do.
And by the way, there isn’t a perfect coach or coaching staff out there. Everyone misses on recruits. Everyone has some bad games. Everyone (but possibly Kentucky) has an imperfect roster in some sense. Again, when I look at a program that has won 31 and 28 games the last two years, advanced to the title game and the Elite Eight (again, after losing Tim, Trey and Mitch for the season), and has put five players into the league in two years, it seems like on the whole, they’re doing a very good job.
And yet you act like they are complete idiots. If you’re so much smarter than everyone else (which is how you come off, whether intentional or not), why don’t you send John Beilein a resume? I mean, what is the extent of your coaching and playing experience, and in all likelihood, how is it any different from literally tens of thousands of people out there?
But hey, I apologize for enjoying the recent success Michigan basketball has had. I should instead temper my views by constantly telling myself things like, “We play terrible defense,” “We are not an elite program,” “We can’t compete with Duke,” and things of that sort, right?
LA - to answer your “who the hell are you to criticize and what are your qualifications” question - I played basketball at the collegiate level, coached several upper tier AAU teams, and am currently going through the recruiting process (albeit on the girls side)which I would say distinguishes me from the great majority of “fans”, namely you if you’d like to get right down to it.
To a large extent (as much as it pains me to say this), I actually think you and I agree on the majority of things in principle, where we differ is to what degreewe assess a given variable.
For instance, you think UM is great/elite, I think we’re good. You think JB is a great coach, I think he is above average, etc.
At the end of the day, we’re simply disagreeing on just how good we are. That being said, we ARE good, just how good is up for debate. Admittedly, I guess I’ve failed to fully appreciate that in relation to empty seated games at Crisler less than 5-6 years ago. We’ve come a long way in that time period. At the same time, I think some have taken these 2 years of greatness and mistaken that as meeting the subjective requirements of being an elite program rather than having a few elite years. We have laid the foundation, yes, but we have a bit more to climb before we reach the top of the mountain.
Quite frankly, I think both of us have written a few too many manifestos in this thread…so let’s just agree that we’re good…and let the on court results this year dictate our discussion for just how good on another day.
Go Blue…Go Beilein! The greatest show on earth!