The post you are responding to was regarding to rule to “come back to school” if you go undrafted. And the impact that would have if it is implemented. My point was that if you go undrafted, you probably have decided to be a pro and aren’t going to consider coming back to school.
Not really sure where the rest of your post goes or what it is related to.
I mentioned Coffey because someone said most of the early entries were recruits who were basically expected to be one-and-done. Coffey is a guy that Michigan fans would be losing their mind over skipping his final year of college ball to go undrafted if he played at Michigan. (I’m sure Minnesota fans are too, FWIW).
With the new rules, I’d rather not get drafted than go 57th if I were an an early entrant. Might be true today for a handful of players.
Do the number of players that think they will get drafted match up with reality? For every Jordan Poole that goes in the first round when the mocks had him late in the second or undrafted, how many others think that will happen to them too?
Because you would want to go back to school (and turn down agent assistance along the way for a month to leave that possibility open) or to sign with whichever team you want?
I just don’t think that it will be all that realistic for players to go through the entire draft process, go undrafted and then return to school. It will happen, but it will be for a very small number of prospects.
Remember, the rule requires that you were invited to the NBA Draft Combine as well.
We’ve really never had a surefire lottery pick come back. Of the guys you list, only McGary and GR3 would have likely cracked the first round. So while all of those guys returned, it also made sense for them to return.
Among those three, only Robinson was maybe a lottery pick. Harris’ return was a little understandable in the sense that he injured his shoulder at the end of 2013. No one in Bridges’ shoes ever comes back.
It’s irrelevant what the mock drafts have. It’s what the player’s reps are telling him. If a player’s rep has a “lock” guarantee that a team will select a kid, that’s more important than media driven mock drafts.
It’s nearly impossible to know what information different kids are actually getting — but it would be interesting to line up professional info given to prospect vs actual draft positioning
We’re talking about one year. We lost three guys, they lost one. You don’t think it’s a massive gap that MSU is returning Winston and Tillman, while Iggy and Poole are gone for us? We’re probably ranked in the top 10 with those two back, and might be lucky to be top 25-35 without them (perhaps even worse).
Meanwhile, where’s MSU without Winston and Tillman? I’d say top 20, at best. Instead, they probably come into the year ranked #1, or close.
I feel like my argument is pretty straightforward.
First, as compared to MSU, we’ve never been in a situation where we have had a surefire lotto pick actually return. They’ve had at least two in Miles Bridges and Gary Harris. (Heck, there were rumors last year Jaren Jackson was strongly considering coming back).
Second, as far as this year, I argued we had three players leave, and generally they were considered to be second round picks or guys who wouldn’t be drafted. MSU had three guys in about that same position (Ward, Winston, Tillman), and two of them came back without really even thinking about the NBA.
So yes, head-to-head, I feel like they’ve been far luckier than us as far as guys returning.
If you disagree, so be it. Wouldn’t be the first time.