Thanks for your analysis Matt. I don’t get to watch nearly as much college basketball as I’d like to. I glanced at the KenPom rankings and Duke is actually 176th(!) in AdjD. (They’re 1st in offense.)
Excerpt from ESPN on Duke struggles - pretty much confirms what my eyes were telling me above
"Duke is a slightly simpler situation: a great offensive team that doesn’t play a lick of defense.
No, really, it genuinely is just that simple. I could probably just tell you that the Blue Devils gave up 90 points in 65 possessions to Vermont at Cameron Indoor; that should drive things home. But let’s dig in.
The Blue Devils are the nation’s most potent offense to date, averaging 1.21 points per possession. They make 60.6 percent of their 2s; they average about 71 possessions per game; they feature Jabari Parker, perhaps the most purely talented offensive player in college basketball since Kevin Durant. They’re a joy to watch.
They also rank – brace yourself – 176th on defense. That’s Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted opponent math (as are the numbers you see above, as always) but let’s list those opponents anyway: Davidson, Kansas, Florida Atlantic, UNC Asheville, East Carolina and, of course, Vermont. Nothing about what Duke does defensively, save guarding 3s, is above average relative to the rest of college basketball – from team 1 to team 345. The convenient thing about these numbers is they merely highlight what you see when you watch Duke play defense: Awful ball-screen hedges, too many switches, late rotations, late help, no interior – you name it.
Two years ago, the Blue Devils ended the season ranked 81st defensively. That was the worst Coach K-coached defense in a decade, and probably much longer than that. If the season ended today, this group, for all its offensive brilliance, might go down as the worst defensive team of Mike Krzyzewski’s career."
Vermont used a zone against Duke. I’d hope we would think to do the same.
Vermont used a zone against Duke. I'd hope we would think to do the same.Vermont allowed 1.41 points per trip against Duke...
Vermont used a zone against Duke. I'd hope we would think to do the same.Vermont allowed 1.41 points per trip against Duke...
lol is that good or bad? What did other teams allow? I’m not really expecting us to keep Duke from scoring, just hope we can minimize the damage on that end.
Vermont used a zone against Duke. I'd hope we would think to do the same.Vermont allowed 1.41 points per trip against Duke...lol is that good or bad? What did other teams allow? I’m not really expecting us to keep Duke from scoring, just hope we can minimize the damage on that end.
That’s ridiculously good offense. My point was that nothing Vermont’s defense did helped them stay in the game. It was the fact that they were also able to score at a ridiculous rate.
Vermont used a zone against Duke. I'd hope we would think to do the same.Vermont allowed 1.41 points per trip against Duke...lol is that good or bad? What did other teams allow? I’m not really expecting us to keep Duke from scoring, just hope we can minimize the damage on that end.
That’s ridiculously good offense. My point was that nothing Vermont’s defense did helped them stay in the game. It was the fact that they were also able to score at a ridiculous rate.
So basically, we just have to outscore them?
See my comments above, average to slightly below average defense probably gives us a decent chance of winning this game.
My concern is that I think a JB team would rather take a 3 point shot over a wide open layup. It’s not first instinct for these guys to attack and drive it into the defense.
My concern is that I think a JB team would rather take a 3 point shot over a wide open layup. It's not first instinct for these guys to attack and drive it into the defense.
You are preaching to the choir my friend…
More takeaways after watching Duke vs UA:
Duke has improved the last 2 games on the defensive end, still not their strength by any stretch.
Offense - duke is not a very good passing team, they play a lot of one on one ball with Parker and Hood. The ball really sticks in the halfcourt set. This is oversimplifying it a bit, but if you can contain, or ideally, stop 1 of those guys you have a great chance at winning the game. Duke isn’t as talented a team 1 through 12 as we’re accustomed to seeing. That will change next year with their recruiting.
Defense - much better effort the last 2 games, but they don’t apply ball pressure and aren’t a big team by any means. They are vulnerable in the post. They had a tendency to double whenever UA dumped the ball in the post, but UA didn’t really have the shooters to make them pay. If we can get the ball into Mitch a few times, we can definitely make Duke pay for doubling, especially if Nik is playing. I think we can score on Duke off the dribble or in the post with Mitch.
Overall, I actually think we have a decent chance at winning the game if Nik is healthy and Mitch is involved in the offense. We generally don’t turn the ball over much, and if we can keep Duke in the halfcourt and away from transition where their shooting is deadly, we will keep the game close.
More takeaways after watching Duke vs UA:Duke has improved the last 2 games on the defensive end, still not their strength by any stretch.
Offense - duke is not a very good passing team, they play a lot of one on one ball with Parker and Hood. The ball really sticks in the halfcourt set. This is oversimplifying it a bit, but if you can contain, or ideally, stop 1 of those guys you have a great chance at winning the game. Duke isn’t as talented a team 1 through 12 as we’re accustomed to seeing. That will change next year with their recruiting.
Defense - much better effort the last 2 games, but they don’t apply ball pressure and aren’t a big team by any means. They are vulnerable in the post. They had a tendency to double whenever UA dumped the ball in the post, but UA didn’t really have the shooters to make them pay. If we can get the ball into Mitch a few times, we can definitely make Duke pay for doubling, especially if Nik is playing. I think we can score on Duke off the dribble or in the post with Mitch.
Overall, I actually think we have a decent chance at winning the game if Nik is healthy and Mitch is involved in the offense. We generally don’t turn the ball over much, and if we can keep Duke in the halfcourt and away from transition where their shooting is deadly, we will keep the game close.
I think we will match up well with them, however, the fact that it is located in Cameron Indoor has me worried. They haven’t lost in like 105+ straight home games against non conference teams. We have the 11th youngest team in the nation, and that youth really shows when we are on the road, especially in wild stadiums like Cameron. I hope we win, but our team’s lack of experience in highly volatile environments doesn’t bode well for us. I forsee us staying with Duke for a good portion of the game, and then they will get on some decent run, and our players will panic and settle for bad jump shots. Hope I’m wrong, but we’ve seen it way too much in the recent past.
There will be tons of home cooking.
I actually think Hood is more important to contain rather than Parker. Hood is much more inclined to go to the rim which causes us problems, whereas Parker is more perimeter oriented by nature despite the fact that he is more effective closer to the basket. I would concede Jabari and try to lock down Hood.