I think the other thing to remember is this: with a Grant/Ayton swap, the lineup is:
Cade
Bey
Ayton
Then if they take a guard at #2…Diallo?
If they take Murray at #2…Frank Jackson?
then their bench is Hayes, Stew, Olynyk, Livers, Lee…
there STILL isn’t much shooting there (which is why Olynyk was so impactful!). Bey is probably an average 3 point shooter for his slot? Cade maybe a bit above average? Olynyk is good. Livers maybe good? Not much else, right?
I realize they can do more than swap Grant/Ayton but this where they are starting from.
Ayton is better than Valunciunas, I’d never argue otherwise, but I wonder if JV is a better fit (JV isn’t available so this is moot, but just talking player profile)? Or Myles Turner (who is probably about as good as Ayton and also available)? Someone who CAN make a 3?
There is no way Cade is a better 3pt shooter then Bey at least not at this point. And yes the team needs guys who can consistently shoot the 3. Livers is looking like he could be one of those. I am not sold on Frank Jackson and Diallo will never get there. Kelly Olynyk being able to shoot the three is the only reason to have him on the team.
As much as it would make me sick to my stomach, I can kind of see RFA max offer, tbh, and I think I prefer that to S&T.
Option 1) Max Ayton. So you’re stuck w/ him at $28 and rising for next 3 years (I think 4 years is max RFA offer). You have Grant still in this scenario.
Option 2) S&T. Obviously, the less you spend on Alyton the more likely that PHX will match. So you trade Grant to sweeten things for PHX. Maybe this gets you Ayton at $20 (best case, I imagine). More likely it’s $2-3/year more. You’ll sign a one-year longer contract.
So does overpaying $6-8 million for 4 years while retaining Grant as an asset outweigh having Ayton at a better number for 5 years but losing Grant? Given the value of Grant, I think I would prefer Option 1.
Having said that, I think I would still keep cap powder dry and trade Grant to Portland for #7. Guys in the next RFA class are Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball–obviously we don’t know much about if they are realistically available. I would think AE will get max offer from Timberwolves and stay. No idea about Charlotte’s cap situation, but I would rather max LaMelo than Ayton. But it is rare to have a fine (not great) player available in this situation, so I guess I understand the appeal of a huge RFA offer to Ayton.
LaMelo Ball is like one of three players in the entire league that kind of wouldn’t make sense pairing up with Cade lol Would love to see it since they’re both absolutely magic but you’d think two of them is redundant, also don’t know how good LaMelo’s defense is or whether he’d even want to come here. Ayton’s defense is being severely underrated btw. I think Ayton can make sense if Detroit can convince a big time star to want to come to Detroit and I don’t think that’s impossible.
Like, you never know if Durant would be willing to finish out his career here after all the postive things he’s said about Detroit and Cade.
Agree the Suns are matching any offer to Ayton. They can’t add that lost salary back, so they want to get something for him. And any team offering him a RFA deal that has cap space to do it can do a sign and trade and at least give Phoenix a couple future picks, if nothing else. There is no benefit to Phoenix letting Ayton walk. Even if they max and keep him for a season, they’d be able to trade him next year.
Honestly, if I were in charge I would deal Grant for the #7, get two potential starter caliber players in this draft at low contract numbers. I’d keep looking at “second draft” guys like Diallo, Bagley, etc., and investigate more of them. Personally, I’m somewhat confident Diallo is a guy that can play on a decent team - maybe not a starter, but can get some minutes. I’d use my massive cap and see around the deadline if any of these massive max contracts sitting on the payrolls of bad teams need a landing spot, with the cost being draft compensation.
If there are reasonably priced vets who can shoot the ball who can give this team a sense of shape and purpose (like Olynyk) I’d sign those guys, but I’d be loathe to ink 4 year deals for more than like $60 million total
Why do you think Ayton would sign an offer sheet for $20M? The Pistons aren’t the only team in the league interested in him. He’s going to get a max deal and the Suns will still match it.
To those above who express total confidence Suns will max Ayton, isn’t it true that the Suns have had a year (half a year?) to max Ayton and haven’t? Isn’t it also true this has rankled Ayton’s feelings? Why would they do this if they were certain they would max him eventually?
Because they are over the cap if they lose Ayton and cannot replace him if he walks. If they sign and trade him, they get something back of roughly equivalent value. Ie, if the Pistons offer him $25 mil and they don’t match, he’s gone.
If they do, they can then trade him to the Pistons for Grant.
I agree, I like Murray and I agree he has a high floor to be a solid pro but I don’t see an all star.
At 5 I’d rather shoot for the stars more. Murray if everything went well would still not be as good as say Tobias Harris. That is if he reaches his potential too imo.
Good pick in the late lottery/ mid first but at 5 , I think you try and get that all star.
If that’s true, that Suns can offer both more salary as well as more years, that is the killer point. That makes everything make sense. I thought Pistons could offer just as much cash in year one as Suns.
Ok. Dunno. I believe the cap hit is somewhat less difficult for Suns as it is a resigning, although I don’t really understand that bit either. Capology is a thing.